Updated Invest 95L !!! Yellow circle with 20% chances Tropics ... A Look at the Tropics Today and in Ten Days or So... End of August Look Out.

Still holding at 20% chances over the next 5 days.

This is not a Cone it's a Zone where formation could occur.

I have to remind people as it's often misunderstood.

Note the chances over the next two days are 10%

Note that could change......

The reason they rise over the 5 day is obvious.

Conditions improve closer to Florida ... North of Cuba.

https://tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=95L&product=ir

It's a wave.

It's not developed.

It flares up.

It wanes.

It flares up.

Cyclical behavior.

A bit of a pocket for it to breathe.

Shear is expected to increase over the next few days.

There's the islands of Cuba and Hispaniola. 

They are Florida's wind break...

But once over the warm Florida Straits.

It can intensify if it's still a designated system.

Storms in late July are iffy but not improbable.

If this had an eye we'd be nervous.

For now it's a wave and it's waving at Florida.

Cuba, Hispaniola and PR and the Virgin Islands.

The Bahamas are down the road.

For now we watch.

While watching keep an eye on the new waves exiting Africa.

There is dry air via SAL still.

There is very warm water.

Warm water temps on the left. Sal on the right.

Models:

Time will tell.

I'll update tomorrow after 8 AM

Sweet Tropical Dreams.

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Insgram.

8 PM update.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=eatl&product=ir

Invest 95L was just introduced suddenly 

Seems the NHC is taking this seriously. 

As we’ve been saying those waves had potential 

Read previous blogs & Tweets 

Expect it to go up in value soon. 

Not sure on long term chances. 

If it was a stock I’d bite perhaps 

Stay tuned. 

Please read the rest of the blog if u haven’t 

All relevant. 

I’m Northbound back to NC

Updating as things change. 

Been changing all day...

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

A yellow circle popped up at 2PM 

20% chances of development in the 5 day. 

First yellow circle in Carib from a wave.

Check out graphics. 

Yellow area for formation ends over South Florida. 

Miami. Broward. WPB

Things change fast in the tropics as August gets closer. 

Think of it as a long skirt...

...cut down to a mini skirt. 

Continue reading the blog to understand that. 

This is one of those waves I’ve been watching. 

People say it has no model support. 

Then suddenly it does. 

Look what popped up. Some cute wave that caught our eye that had no model support now caught the models attention. Long shot but something to watched. Check models on www.spaghettimodels.com and graphics at NHC website. On the road. I’ll update in depth tonight. 

Why we always watch patterns and weather 

Eventually models jump on board. 

See how fast things change?

Never get complacent!

Excuse any typos on the road traveling 

Compare and contrast from NHC at 8 AM. 

Officially nothing expected to form.

But there's always something out there that could.

Keep reading and it will all make sense.....

Kind of a mixed bag today of feelings. Looking forward to going home and getting back on a regular routine and sad to say goodbye to family here where I've been in South Florida the last two weeks. Always hard to have two lovers and of late I love both Florida and Carolina, though it's obvious I'm a Florida girl wherever I go on the tropical road. So taking stock of my belongings strewn across my daughter's room while packing and deciding which things to leave her and which things to leave here for me to have for the next trip back down. Somethings are better for her to wear to work, as I don't work out of the house and I love giving her things. Kind of that simple...  She actually gives me things too as we are the same size despite her having better shoulders and a bit longer of a waist. Being a mother I actually buy things in Raleigh figuring I'll wear them a while and give them to Rivky. If something doesn't work for Rivky I seem to end up with it.

And you are wondering what does this have to do with the tropics?

It's kind of a mixed bag of weather possibilities in the tropics while an over whelming huge, high pressure system kind of sucks all the life out of the tropics. Here and there some random wave gets away and finds a home somewhere else along the coast and turns into a small homegrown storm. One wave starts out over Africa and for a few days it wears well in the MDR but as it gets further West it decides to lay low down near the coast of South America and wonders on going to Mexico. Sometimes the north part of a wave manages to sneak trough the dry air, subsidence and shear and flare up near the coast of Florida as if it's some pirate ship looking to put into port in a cove near the Bahamas or near some beach outside of Jacksonville. No wave seems to have a specific destination and leftover convection once worn as a strong trough trashing the East Coast lingering off of Florida may get reborn into a new quasi storm struggling to find a center and be reinvented the way a cute skirt at a thrift shop finds a new home eventually.

When a tropical wave rolls off of Africa in late August and the dry air, shear is gone and possibly a MJO was in the vicinity it is as strong as an afternoon thunderstorm in Miami and clouds climb high into the sky, rotation is there from the start and upon it's exit from Africa it brings down a plane or a ship and creates a commotion on day one. Hurricane Donna began in such a fashion and it's an excellent example of a well developed tropical storm at the right time, at the right place following a track that would take it up over the islands so it's first chance to make landfall was the Florida Keys. With a destination in mind it rolled up the West Coast of Florida and then back again out into the Atlantic where it cruised on up the East Coast destroying beach homes in North Carolina and smashing into Long Island that for some reason just juts out into the Atlantic saying "hit me, go for it" and many a hurricane is held to that bar that Donna set in 1960. Many hurricanes could do that track but few do the exact track but every time there's a Sandy or an Irma people remember Donna.

Hurricane Donna was so cool........

...it was one of the 1st Canes to get it's own Selfie!

When hurricane geeks freak out over fantasy hurricanes.

Hurricane Donna often shows up first.

The wave that would soon become Donna rolled off of the Islands near Africa on August 29, 1960 bringing down with it a plane and creating a rain storm many would remember for years to come.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Donna  It's a good read and Donna set the bar as I said for CV Hurricanes that flirted with the Islands, flirted with Cuba but decided to do Florida first. My grandmother who was conceived in Key West, raised in Tampa and lived in Miami eventually was most fearful of those hurricanes that trace the High and come up over the islands before smashing into South Florida. She did have some experience and was definitely right. Many storms hit the islands first, take on Hispaniola and crawl up over Cuba as Cleo did and when they hit South Florida they were a meager leftover beginning to fray but still having some life left to it. Hurricane Donna and the Great Miami Hurricane both went up over the islands so giving Grandma Mary her due here - - - that woman could look up at the sky and know exactly when it was going to begin raining without an APP and not needing social media!

So where does this leave us now?  Let's take a look at the loop.

Note the convection off the SE coast. Waves moving West.

There's still shear at the entrance to the Caribbean.

Why do I talk on Donna?

I'm in Miami ...duh.

And seriously.......

When you have active frontal systems all summer.

And then they die out around North Florida.

It raises the chance of hurricanes doing the coast.

Somewhere between where the High ends.

And the fronts begin.

Is where you'll find hurricanes turn North.

All hurricanes at some point try to turn North.

Sometimes a huge high prevents them but they try.

Where frontal boundaries decay and end up at the thrift shop.

They may get repurposed into a new system.

It's a very green, organic process.

Watch either side of Florida.
Close in for now.
Watch Africa for down the road.

Hurricane Donna is like that incredible prom dress you buy to wear on a date with what seems to be the love of your life and that dress will remain in your memory forever; the pictures scattered through albums and boxes that you take with you back and forth in your travels. You remember it the way you remember the roar of the wind as a hurricane pounded your childhood home, both scared and incredibly alive and excited at the majesty of the hurricane wind that howls through the night.  Those other subtropicals and storms such as Barry that are questionable are cute outfits you bought randomly while restlessly wandering through Macys and that end up in your sister's closet or passed on to your daughter who might enjoy it more one day.

I was a Cat-5 teenage weather nerd when #Hurricane GLORIA came racing up the coast. 🤓 My town on #LongIsland was the bullseye. I found my old track map & carefully-written observations packed away in a box—like uncovering old love letters. ❤️ I made a collage of the sexy parts. pic.twitter.com/G1zhy3tTl1

— Josh Morgerman (@iCyclone) July 26, 2019

You learn a lot from tracking hurricanes. You start out young recording details in diaries and scribbling coordinates on scraps of paper and eventually having ten windows open on your laptop because you are watching it from every angle and you need to compare the visible with the water vapor loop. You study hurricane history as if it's fashion history and you holistically almost become one with that one wave you know will develop and need to be monitored more carefully and then you wait to see a core form and an eye develop and you know now is the time as we are in prime time and no more quasi storms of a questionable nature. And then things ramp up and your week is a blur of images, loops and models. We are not there yet but we can feel it in the tropical air and we are waiting.

As always I direct you do doing your hurricane preparation now and hoping you don't need it later. Any hurricane supplies can be donated to a shelter of some kind or a food bank that will be happy to have all your granola bars and canned vegetables. 

As for me I'm about to leave the city of my birth and travel North along a road that many hurricanes have followed to a place where hurricanes often make landfall. I'll update when something happens but for now it's the old two step of the two day and the five day both saying "nothing happening for now" but as the NHC always reminds you prepare while you can for hurricane season and make sure your insurance is up to date as once a hurricane is close by it's too late for you to get all your insurance in place!

Someone, somewhere is always watching.

Some prepare just in case....

...others wait til the eye is up close.

Lluvias beneficiosas para aliviar la sequia en Puerto Rico es como el SNM describe lo que la Onda Tropical va a traer a la isla el Lunes. No se espera desarrollo ciclónico pero despues modelos desarrollan esta Onda al este de las Carolinas. pic.twitter.com/XR3euf7GWL

— CycloforumsPR (@CycloforumsPR) July 28, 2019

Til then there's a video the NHC put up that's worth watching as people seem to argue over what the Cone means and as it's made at the NHC and it's their product they are the last word in how to use it. I put it here as it needs some help and perhaps you can watch it and share it with others. I know local on air mets often explain it differently and I've heard people who worked at the NHC explain it a different way and it's intuitively a problem and open it seems to much different interpretation based on your own experience. Sometimes it's confusing and I do believe that's why so many listen to Mike as a hurricane forms out in the Atlantic or Gulf of Mexico headed towards what seems an obvious landfall as he explains how to use models, what to look for based on what the NHC is saying and his own gut and he calms people giving them information. On any given day over 2,000 people listen to his daily update yet only 20,000 people have watched this video directly from the source. It's kind of odd and perhaps they need to get on air mets who often describe it differently to start sharing the info.

Always good to know what NHC says.

As for me I'll be watching that Seminole Wind.

And watching loops and twitter feeds.

Playing with the models.

Wondering....

Do we get another Donna or Hugo?

Or do we get Hazel or Edna?

1938 Hurricane or....

...the 2019 Hurricane that we will look back on someday.

Which storm will be the one you remember?

The Gloria or Hugo?

Stay centered.

Have fun.

Share the love.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Follow me there for quick updates.

Updated 10 PM! Models Invest 91L Forms. Tropics Still 20% - Thoughts on Tropical Development, Advertising and How Wendy's Became Prom Queen

Just adding in here some models. 

Each new model run shows a new layer.

In reality this is most likely a BOC player.

www.spaghettimodels.com

Grid above on the home page from Spaghetti Models.

Up close view of the new Yellow Circle.

Newest graphics from NHC show the small yellow circle in the BOC and that's perfectly in line with CLIMO and June systems. Again a disorganized system means that IF a center develops the center will be tracked but the weather may be far from the center. So even if this system gets a name and flirts with Tex Mex or some city along the Texas coast the rain may be a wide shield of tropical moisture. And, it's possible some odd things will happen between here and there. Stay tuned.  

Invest 91L has formed.

NHC now runs models officially.

1st model run below.

Eventually it goes left.

Even the track towards Florida turns back.

Well as far as the first run goes... 

Basically nothing has changed today.

10% in the 2 day.

20% in the 5 day.

Really nothing new to say.

Did want to show the wide view.

Convection has been consistent with 91L

Also note Westbound tropical wave.

The tropical wave is low....

...but despite SAL and cool water.

The wave made it across the Atlantic.

Why worry on 91L ?

Even if it struggles to be a Tropical Storm?

Tropical Storms have a history of sometimes stalling.

Tropical Storm Allison is one such storms.

This is NOT Allison.

But it's worth remembering.

http://blogs.app.com/enviroguy/2014/06/17/tropical-storm-allison-soaked-nj-13-years-ago/

Good blog above.

Formed close in...

...sat and dumped rain.

Flooding happened.

Then moisture continued to cause mischief.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Allison

Also you will hear people online talking.

They talk of MJO and Kelvin Waves.

Where such waves go tropical trouble follows.

One in the Epac is responsible for Aletta and Bud

Or more so for their intensity.

As the wave moves East...

tropical development is favored.

Or let's say a factor in enhanced tropical development.

Now let's look at Invest 91L

2 Satellites are needed to show this area.

There is a blob of convection in the Caribbean.

A flow of moisture moving N towards Cuba and Florida.

Really just enhancing the set up for rain this time of year.

GOM satellite shows shear to the West in the BOC.

An ULL and a cold front on the move are players.

Note further up in the GOM is the ULL

And purple splotches along the coastline.

Close to land.

BOC and Carib.

It's common for multiple centers to set up shop a bit.

Think of them like "pop up shops"

When the set up is murky like this...

Shear and marginal water temperatures.

Not ready for brick and mortar store.

Just a cute "Pop Up Shop"

If you wait it's too late.

The POPUP shop is gone.

https://www.click2houston.com/news/topshop-to-host-kylie-jenners-kylie-cosmetic-pop-up-in-houstons-galleria

An example being a while back I went with my daughter to Aventura Mall and my daughter showed me the new wing of the mall with the new TOPSHOP in it and she was looking at the make up. I bought her some Kylie Jenner Lipsticks from the store. When I went back to the store the Make up display was gone because... it was a POP UP store. You can see in the middle on display in the picture below. Later another POP UP store appeared elsewhere in the store for another product. It's a fast paced world these days you got to be ready for something to pop up anywhere be it eyeliners or tropical development. Often areas such as this develop multiple centers that pop up and disappear just as fast. 

Dabuh discusses that online today.

And that is the problem with Invest 91L . . . a center can POP UP anywhere in that yellow grid and it's possible that multiple areas of interest could evolve out of this broad, large, messy area of consistent convection. Something could develop far from what seems to be the burst of convection the NHC is hinting at that would develop. It could be nothing happens until the convection pushed West by the strong High to the East oozes into the BOC and then as it scurries towards the coast the NHC pin points a center, issues a TD or TS watch in an abundance of caution and then we get a designated system. Eventually one center wins out. Don't believe any one model run until a true center has formed. The truth is the real issue here is the WEATHER and steering currents that are not strong and could allow rains to sit over Texas maintaining long term rainfall and some localized flooding. We have seen this set up before. It's common for this time of year. It's a very common but complicated set up. Note well drawn illustrations by Cranky shown below.

Also note moisture from BUD will spread into US.

Enhancing weather in the SW.

Can that have a hand here as well?

Something to think on.

Check back later to see if the odds have changed.

One thing I do want to say is it's depressing watching TWC these days as their advertisers are obviously targeting the aging Baby Boom population that still pays for Cable TV. I get that you really need.... I suppose to preach to the choir but I'm tired of hearing how no one can sleep and they need a way better pillow or medication to help them get a good night's sleep. They are sort of shooting themselves in the foot by looking at the short term game here. IF people can really sleep with that pillow and the meds then their audience will be snoring during their nonstop barrage of how to survive in the jungle and what it's like to chase a killer tornado. Seems like they should pay younger advertisers to be involved in their broadcast of weather to a new generation who might watch them on HULU and ROKU. They need to find out who is in charge or Wendy's and Burger King (now going with the handle Pancake King) who stole the thunder from IHOP/IHOB yesterday with their tongue in cheek flirtation that stole the show on Twitter. I said stole twice and that was on purpose. If you are going to sell your message than get it right and don't make a new logo that looks like a box of tampons. Perhaps IHOP needs to get way better coffee or smell the roses cause it seems they will not have a date to the prom this year. Really no women were involved in this decision as any woman would know their new logo looks like a box of tampons...

Best read all day:

https://www.thecut.com/2018/06/ihop-ob-tampons-logo.html

And Wendy's Sassy Tweets were the best.

Pancake King not bad... funny.

So lastly taking this back to tropical weather as how you tell the story is important. Too much hype online, too much jumping the gate at times with advertised graphics and too much concern on if cool water near Africa will lessen the total number of ACE this year when in fact it's storms that spin up or develop close in that are bigger concerns than FISH storms that form fast by Africa and curve out to sea.  As for the Caribbean and the BOC it's time for a sacrificial weak TD to be sacrificed to the old Mayan powers that be by tossing a storm up towards the Tex Mex area hopefully away from Houston but I can't make any promises.  The only thing I can promise you is adding @burgerking and @wendy's to your Twitter feed will brighten your day. Cranky's great discussion always makes my morning and Mike at www.spaghettimodels.com keeps me surfing along fast while out shopping at the old Brick and Mortar store (hey I am a Baby Boomer even if Facebook says I grew up in the 80s) :)

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbitsorm on Twitter

Tropics Quiet. What Are You Doing For July 4th! Fireworks? Beach? Wave Watching.

Remember that wave that the NHC thought had potential.

Hmnnnn

No yellow circles. Quiet day in the tropics....

You know those daily struggles we all have? Whether you are trying to stay on a diet, go daily to the gym or trying to stay on a budget - you know it's an up and down process. Some days we are better at working towards our goals and other days we feel down in the dumps and overcome; our energy zapped with no will power. Then in a few days the Moon goes into Virgo and we suddenly feel the need to clean out the attic and organize the back of the closet. Okay, it might not be an astrological aspect but when the moon goes into Virgo I know I suddenly want to stay home and organize. I'm a Capricorn so maybe Virgo just works well for me and I'm feeling better. Virgo rules those wild waves that role of Africa and take aim at one of five basic paths. September remember...

I know you are thinking this is way too much astrology for your skeptical Virgo brain, but I've had way too much discussion on the most talked about Eclipse since the one the ancients wrote about after the fact and gave up eating, sex, drinking and ran for their lives when they didn't know why the devil took the sun away and hid it. So you can indulge me a little while I debate getting a hat or a V neck tee shirt for the most over merchandised event we have had since the Millennium and I'm sure many of you remember that!

I'm into astronomy, astrology and events that leave indelible imprints in our brains as a collective we love events that unify us in buying tee shirts and booking passages (money permitting) for cruises to watch the whales and an eclipse at the same time. But this has become the merchandising event of the year. And the travel sites that pay big bucks to TWC are paying trust me there are Bed and Breakfasts in Oregon and Charleston that are already sold out.

So let's talk most likely hurricane paths across the Atlantic Ocean.

a) Through the Islands, under a strong High Pressure straight into Central America.
b) Through the islands, curving up just a bi taking aim through the Yucatan Passage at the GOM.
c) Up and over the islands or just brushing the islands, missing the big ones towards FLORIDA.
d) Aiming for the islands but some trof grabs them pulls them NW bypassing FL to Carolinas.
e) Swim little fishy out to sea, be a Cat three but no one watches me....cause I'm a Fish Storm.

Basically with a little variation those five paths are the basics. Now sometimes you get two of the above that merge together such as Betsy and Andrew. Or sometimes you get a Donna like storm that looks like it's going to New Orleans after bulldozing it's way through the Florida Keys and then the track snaps back across Florida and runs the Eastern Seaboard. The point is the track down the road is up for grabs.

This is the wave and it's nemesis that is you note larger than the wave, stronger and going to win the battle with the tropical wave emerging off of Africa. One one side of the ring we have a small, nicely wrapped contender with not enough weight on him. In the other side of the ring we have a contender with ripped muscles and looking hungry.

You get the idea.

Poof goes the Yellow Circle 

We have a champion!

It's June. 

Those waves need to bulk up some!

And they will....

Add in the water is still cold this time of year.

Brrrr........

Ever try going swimming on the Outer Banks in June?

Oh my goodness soooo cold.

It's not the beaches of Miami...

Looking at the loop above you can see the wave that never developed but stayed alive and is kicking up color and weather in the Islands. Still going strong... keep watching it and see how it matches up with the shear at the door of the Caribbean. Something fun to watch.. maybe.

Old danging front across Florida worth watching. 

And more waves coming off of Africa and there is one that looks to have some potential. And that would be why many are looking at long range models for after July 4th. Seems Uncle Sam paid someone off to keep those waves from forming until after his birthday. So stop worrying on the eclipse and figure out what your plans are for July 4th. I'm pretty sure there's a fire works show if you are into tons of smoke and noise or a concert with carefully choreographed fireworks and if not there's always that place in the hood where you live where every kid over the age of 10 has a treasure chest of fireworks he's shooting off for all the neighborhood to enjoy. Except that one neighbor that calls the cops and then the cops come, park down the block and watch the fireworks and then drive away. Happens. And yes I posted this song for the message and for great pics of the Fontaineblue in the 1980s. I grew up a few blocks away, had my prom there and one of my son's knows all the hidden exits to get in to watch concerts. Miami Kids. One generation hung out in the Boom Boom Room and other generations sneak into concerts on the beach and Victoria's Secrets fashion shows. Growing up in Miami is not like any other place in the world. I'm prejudiced....

Pics from the vault.

Powerhouse discussion on where to set up the big ones.

July 4th in the Meyer house was always interesting.

Then there was the year my daughter sold fireworks in Dania.

Summer jobs. 

Half Price off discounts.

Cousin's front yard show was bigger than the Orange Bowl.

Well ...seemed like it.

BBQ

Beaches.

Concerts.

In the front yard on the circular driveway upsetting half the neighborhood or taking all the big vans into the backyard and turning the lights on to light up the yard and blasting the music. Kids grow up and then they get lazy and watch from the show below from their balconies up high in their tropical balconies looking down on the Golf Course where little kids shoot off rockets.

So you just keep on counting, 1 2 3 4 and one of those waves will be something to do something big, bad and dangerous. And then might just curve out to sea and be a fish storm like those sharks at the beach that scared everyone out of the water and then swam off to another beach to scare some other bathes. Analog to the shark scenario would be Hurricane David ;)

1979 a year to remember ...

...to think of this year perhaps.

So enjoy the day, enjoy the week and I'll be back when something starts to spin or some model somewhere goes "oh my goodness" and til then make plans for the 4th of July and enjoy the possibility of a weekend to party, laugh and buy tee shirts!

Love and Kisses... 

Besos BobbiStorm

Follow me on Twitter @bobbistorm for way faster updates.

Ps Growing up we could see the fireworks shot off at the Fontainebleau from our sidewalk. Some kids have a mall, Miami Beach kids have Lincoln Road, the Eden Roc and the Fontaineblue ;) And once in a while a visit by the ultimate tourist of all.. a West Indies Hurricane! And I believe after July 4th the fireworks in the tropics will truly begin..a bit early this year!!