Is Amazon Coming to Raleigh? Snow is Melting & Life is Slowly Going Back to Normal. Black Ice Warnings This AM & Probably Tonight. Greyhound Bus and Cruise Ships. Why don't they check the weather first? Things That Make You Wonder. Alzheimer's Research and Thank YOU!

As Mike from  www.spaghettimodels.com shows in a photograph that we are dealing with winter weather today. The Hurricane Season and everything tropical takes a back seat to the deep diving winter weather that dove all the way down to the Sunshine State where Jack Frost visited Tampa Florida.   Some discussion today on life in one of the cities nominated for Amazon's new 2nd Headquarters or however the actual wording goes....

Another great pic 

'

@weatherwes

Wes Hohenstein.

Great image... 

Sometimes photos tell a story well.

Speaking of photographs.

You should really follow him on Twitter.

He puts poetry into photography.

Melds them together.

What else is on the menu today?

Some discussion on winter weather in a city not used to winter weather and for the most part loving it as if we were given a true Winter Vacation.

Some discussion further down the road on why... "just why" does Greyhound emulate the crappy attitude of cruise ship companies that feel it okay to endanger the lives of their passengers for profit. Just why do they ignore a carved in ice winter weather warning and take chances with the lives of their passengers by ignoring weather forecasts until the snow piles up and their drivers refuse to drive.  But more on that later.

I'm quoting an on air news person from WRAL who said "the trees are tall and the shadows are long" trying to remind people not to go out and drive around unless they have to ... until the ice on the roads melt. Yes, we have a Black Ice Warning... school is out and kids are home looking to build snow men and have snow fights. Raleigh doesn't get this sort of snow often, much like Seattle which I'll talk on later, it gets light dustings that melt the next day. A real snow event makes everyone here either hide under the covers or dance in the snow. If you like the seasons Raleigh is a wonderful place to live. It has a long fall and a long spring. The winter in Raleigh along with the dead dog days of summer are shorter than many places. I timed the visit to Miami to get back in time to see Raleigh turn into a Winter Wonderland. Enjoy it fast as Sunday we are flirting with sunny and 60 degrees!

The bright sun is almost blinding.

Even when the roads are plowed!

I just want to add one thing to people online who think they know so much about "Black Ice" but they seem clueless about the reality of human nature or anything beyond their own skill set. The picture above illustrates the dangers on the road today around Raleigh. Yes, you can't see the ice in the dark and that is why it is called "black ice" but most people who are not used to winter weather are clueless how to handle a car when it starts to slide on "black ice" or any ice. Not everyone knows what to look for or how to drive on roads that have not been plowed or were plowed and are now covered in slick icy spots. Again... this doesn't happen often. It's much like Miami and hurricanes as only the old timers there know what to do and how to prepare properly. Raleigh, much like Miami and Seattle, is a city that has a diverse transitory population. People move here to work on projects at various tech companies and then often put down roots. We have the three of the top colleges in the country with many out of town students who don't always know how to handle the hilly streets in Raleigh or the roads when covered in snow or ice.  The city and the school board errs on the side of safety and asks people to stay home and off the roads. In a day or two everything melts or ends up in slow melting piles if it has been plowed and we go back to normal.

No Swimming today...

...though the sun feels warm!

Raleigh is in the mix for the prime prize Amazon is awarding to a city it deems worthy of their incredible presence. I know how incredible it is as my son interned and worked there and I've spent some time at the Amazon buildings in Seattle. Amazon should stand for #Awesome when it comes to adding life and energy into any city lucky enough to host it's new headquarters. They are modern, ecological minded and they even allow people who work there to take their dogs to work for the day when needed. From something as small as pets to tall beautiful buildings employing people from all over the world it's a win win for any city who does indeed wins this prime prize. 

Raleigh is a great city to live in and I mean pretty much throughout the whole year not just a few months here and there such as Boston which is beautiful but too cold or Miami which is wonderful but really hot and humid most of the year. Raleigh is a lot like Seattle in that we have abundant water for fishing, sporting, boating and taking great #selfies and mountains near enough for a nice weekend away. We have a wonderful airport which would get much more crowded should we become an Amazon city but it's new and easy to access as are many cities such as Seattle as it's easy to fly out and in unlike some cities that are wonderful but... they have limited access. I love Savannah and Wilmington but the airport is smaller and you have to get off the highway to get there. Amtrak is building a new Train Station in downtown Raleigh and there is a brand new station in Cary. It's an easy place for people who like to commute or travel often and we all know I do. Beaches are not far away though a bit too far for me though the beaches in Seattle are mostly scenic vs the ones you find in Florida. 

In Raleigh people are so friendly at times you want to puke .. if you come from a colder, impersonal city where people pass each other without even blinking. It's a great place to raise a family and there are many places downtown to party or hang out at night. If you were raised on Miami Beach it's a bit boring, but boring is usually good when you are a young family trying to pay off your student loans while living in a very affordable large home in a safe neighborhood. I do complain often to my friends but in truth those are unique complaints that I have that the average person living here does not have such as a nice trendy Kosher restaurant or any kosher restaurant for that matter. But being a Southern Jew whose family goes way back in the South several generations I do love many things about Raleigh. I still think it's Eastern Tennessee but that's another talk for another day.

I also want to warn you that riding Greyhound Bus into Raleigh is akin to taking your life into your hands if you get stuck at the Richmond VA bus station which happens often to people it seems. Raleigh has a nicer bus station (new) and the people are friendly. My daughter took a bus to Raleigh as she is on a budget and has taken the bus here before and it was "okay" in that it is always easy to jump on a bus for a fast ticket out of town on a when you are on a budget. Plus you can use your power stick that stays full for up to 260 hours and play video games or watch TV while you are traveling those friendly roads. 

During the winter when Winter Storm Inga was threatening for days and there were Winter Weather Advisories and Winter Weather Warnings Greyhound in NYC insisted there would be no delays or problems riding their Express bus to Raleigh the night the storm was beginning. She never would have gotten on the bus had they not insisted that there would be no problems and there were no weather concerns. Obviously..... Greyhound ignores winter weather advisories the way cruise ship lines ignore hurricane warnings. Their need for showing they can get their passengers where they want to go seems to beat out common sense and concerns for safety.  It seems their bus drivers refused to drive the bus even when Greyhound insisted they could safely drive through Black Ice Warnings. I know this as the bus drivers had fights with their managers in Richmond in front of their passengers who after sitting there for more than 4 hours with no information began to argue so much that the police had to be called in to stop the fight. I suppose the Captains on the cruise ships are less likely to abandon ship in the middle of the ocean. Either way it's pretty pathetic. I was worried she would get stuck in Richmond and equally worried no one would be able to pick her up at the bus terminal as we had black ice warnings until Noon in Raleigh yesterday.

My daughter who lives in Brooklyn is pretty tough, she has driven from Ottawa to Miami more than once and traveled extensively and lived in North Miami Beach in an area that is pretty tough at times if the wrong person gets upset but the scene in Richmond was something out of a bad movie. Greyhound seems to have a Cowboy mentality and they put you on the stagecoach and they drive it until the driver disappears into the dark night while they are watering the horses. To make this more ridiculous their website insisted there were no travel delays so I suppose it's a sort of FAKE NEWS issue by them because if they don't report they are having a travel delay there is no delay. She did get in around 4:45 PM yesterday (8 hours late) while the sun was still up and we were able to pick her up and run to Trader Joes on the way home to buy Ice Cream before they closed at 5 PM due to safety concerns for the black ice that forms as soon as the son goes down around here during a snow event. She brought freshly baked chocolate chip cookies with her that we crumbled over Trader Joes Vanilla Pareve Ice Cream after a nice warm hot meal.  Glad she is here but seriously it's pathetic she had to go through that but I guess it could have been worse. She could have been locked in her cabin cruising through a Hurricane for hours and hours. We have this great organization called the National Weather Service they might want to check it out.

http://time.com/4916794/hurricane-harvey-cruise-ship/

http://fox8.com/2017/01/30/bus-gets-stuck-in-snow-spins-tires-catches-fire/ a few weeks ago...

So........  this is why so many people I know who don't like to fly (and there are many) drive cross country rather than trust others to get them where they need to go. That said Southwest and JetBlue that fly out of Raleigh are usually very good as is Amtrak as they are quick to inform travelers of safety problems.  

Lastly I'm going to post some pictures here to show the beauty of Raleigh in the Snow. And....thanks again for taking the time to read my blog in the winter when I go long on personal matters and muse about life vs informing the public of the latest tropical trouble. I do appreciate your feedback and your follows on Twitter. 

Speaking of personal. My youngest daughter had a birthday yesterday in Miami and rather than hope her friends and family bought her presents she asked everyone to donate money to Alzheimer's research. Facebook lets you post a page (they need time to approve the charity by the way.......) and it can be posted and shared in social media. The link to her page is below. She did achieve her original goal and has far surpassed it but you can still donate. As I said online elsewhere Alzheimer's and dementia is an equal opportunity disease and cuts across all boundaries of race, color, religion or political persuasion. It is the one equalizer that finds a way to hit all of us where it hurts the most. Be it a parent or a friend's parent it's painful and it hurts to watch a person slowly slip away. Money makes the world go round and it pays for research to find ways to prolong people's lives with a better quality of life and hopefully one day we will have a cure. So any amount donated makes a difference as we are truly a village (honest) and we all one human family. Thanks to all who donated and I appreciate it greatly as does my daughter who is happy to have made a difference. Know you can do this on Facebook with your family and friends as well. 

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

http://act.alz.org/site/TR?fr_id=11139&pg=personal&px=9601092

Link above helps you navigate to the page :)

Ps... enoy the pictures :)

Car dealerships above.

Snow glowed like diamonds in the sun.

As it melted ...froze and melted.

The sky was so blue yesterday...

Just beautiful.

Tropics Quiet. What Are You Doing For July 4th! Fireworks? Beach? Wave Watching.

Remember that wave that the NHC thought had potential.

Hmnnnn

No yellow circles. Quiet day in the tropics....

You know those daily struggles we all have? Whether you are trying to stay on a diet, go daily to the gym or trying to stay on a budget - you know it's an up and down process. Some days we are better at working towards our goals and other days we feel down in the dumps and overcome; our energy zapped with no will power. Then in a few days the Moon goes into Virgo and we suddenly feel the need to clean out the attic and organize the back of the closet. Okay, it might not be an astrological aspect but when the moon goes into Virgo I know I suddenly want to stay home and organize. I'm a Capricorn so maybe Virgo just works well for me and I'm feeling better. Virgo rules those wild waves that role of Africa and take aim at one of five basic paths. September remember...

I know you are thinking this is way too much astrology for your skeptical Virgo brain, but I've had way too much discussion on the most talked about Eclipse since the one the ancients wrote about after the fact and gave up eating, sex, drinking and ran for their lives when they didn't know why the devil took the sun away and hid it. So you can indulge me a little while I debate getting a hat or a V neck tee shirt for the most over merchandised event we have had since the Millennium and I'm sure many of you remember that!

I'm into astronomy, astrology and events that leave indelible imprints in our brains as a collective we love events that unify us in buying tee shirts and booking passages (money permitting) for cruises to watch the whales and an eclipse at the same time. But this has become the merchandising event of the year. And the travel sites that pay big bucks to TWC are paying trust me there are Bed and Breakfasts in Oregon and Charleston that are already sold out.

So let's talk most likely hurricane paths across the Atlantic Ocean.

a) Through the Islands, under a strong High Pressure straight into Central America.
b) Through the islands, curving up just a bi taking aim through the Yucatan Passage at the GOM.
c) Up and over the islands or just brushing the islands, missing the big ones towards FLORIDA.
d) Aiming for the islands but some trof grabs them pulls them NW bypassing FL to Carolinas.
e) Swim little fishy out to sea, be a Cat three but no one watches me....cause I'm a Fish Storm.

Basically with a little variation those five paths are the basics. Now sometimes you get two of the above that merge together such as Betsy and Andrew. Or sometimes you get a Donna like storm that looks like it's going to New Orleans after bulldozing it's way through the Florida Keys and then the track snaps back across Florida and runs the Eastern Seaboard. The point is the track down the road is up for grabs.

This is the wave and it's nemesis that is you note larger than the wave, stronger and going to win the battle with the tropical wave emerging off of Africa. One one side of the ring we have a small, nicely wrapped contender with not enough weight on him. In the other side of the ring we have a contender with ripped muscles and looking hungry.

You get the idea.

Poof goes the Yellow Circle 

We have a champion!

It's June. 

Those waves need to bulk up some!

And they will....

Add in the water is still cold this time of year.

Brrrr........

Ever try going swimming on the Outer Banks in June?

Oh my goodness soooo cold.

It's not the beaches of Miami...

Looking at the loop above you can see the wave that never developed but stayed alive and is kicking up color and weather in the Islands. Still going strong... keep watching it and see how it matches up with the shear at the door of the Caribbean. Something fun to watch.. maybe.

Old danging front across Florida worth watching. 

And more waves coming off of Africa and there is one that looks to have some potential. And that would be why many are looking at long range models for after July 4th. Seems Uncle Sam paid someone off to keep those waves from forming until after his birthday. So stop worrying on the eclipse and figure out what your plans are for July 4th. I'm pretty sure there's a fire works show if you are into tons of smoke and noise or a concert with carefully choreographed fireworks and if not there's always that place in the hood where you live where every kid over the age of 10 has a treasure chest of fireworks he's shooting off for all the neighborhood to enjoy. Except that one neighbor that calls the cops and then the cops come, park down the block and watch the fireworks and then drive away. Happens. And yes I posted this song for the message and for great pics of the Fontaineblue in the 1980s. I grew up a few blocks away, had my prom there and one of my son's knows all the hidden exits to get in to watch concerts. Miami Kids. One generation hung out in the Boom Boom Room and other generations sneak into concerts on the beach and Victoria's Secrets fashion shows. Growing up in Miami is not like any other place in the world. I'm prejudiced....

Pics from the vault.

Powerhouse discussion on where to set up the big ones.

July 4th in the Meyer house was always interesting.

Then there was the year my daughter sold fireworks in Dania.

Summer jobs. 

Half Price off discounts.

Cousin's front yard show was bigger than the Orange Bowl.

Well ...seemed like it.

BBQ

Beaches.

Concerts.

In the front yard on the circular driveway upsetting half the neighborhood or taking all the big vans into the backyard and turning the lights on to light up the yard and blasting the music. Kids grow up and then they get lazy and watch from the show below from their balconies up high in their tropical balconies looking down on the Golf Course where little kids shoot off rockets.

So you just keep on counting, 1 2 3 4 and one of those waves will be something to do something big, bad and dangerous. And then might just curve out to sea and be a fish storm like those sharks at the beach that scared everyone out of the water and then swam off to another beach to scare some other bathes. Analog to the shark scenario would be Hurricane David ;)

1979 a year to remember ...

...to think of this year perhaps.

So enjoy the day, enjoy the week and I'll be back when something starts to spin or some model somewhere goes "oh my goodness" and til then make plans for the 4th of July and enjoy the possibility of a weekend to party, laugh and buy tee shirts!

Love and Kisses... 

Besos BobbiStorm

Follow me on Twitter @bobbistorm for way faster updates.

Ps Growing up we could see the fireworks shot off at the Fontainebleau from our sidewalk. Some kids have a mall, Miami Beach kids have Lincoln Road, the Eden Roc and the Fontaineblue ;) And once in a while a visit by the ultimate tourist of all.. a West Indies Hurricane! And I believe after July 4th the fireworks in the tropics will truly begin..a bit early this year!!

Updated 11 AM - Recon May Make the Call Today on #2 or #3. Watching 93L Moving Off the Yucatan and Atlantic PTS 2. Bret? Cindy?

11 AM discussion out of NHC PTC2

Basically puts the brakes on intensification for now.

Holds it at 40 MPH vs 50 MPH 

Why?

Possibly interaction with land as it nears South America.

Fast forward speed of 02 

See how close the bottom side is to land.

As for 93L has a 90% chance of development.

You can see the "center" pop out just N of the Yucatan.

If this trend continues looking better for upgrade.

A race to see which low closes off...

...and gets the name Bret.

You can see both systems battling shear.

Models may be verifying w 93L

Stay tuned.

Nice map below from www.hurricanecity.com

Learn how to use the home page features..

Many good links at www.spaghettimodels.com

Keep reading if you have not already.

Again the newest product shows estimated times of winds arrival.

You may wonder why it is not an official Tropical Storm.

If it has 40 MPH you must be thinking what gives?

We are not sure there is a closed center.

But we know the winds are there.

Recon is flying in soon.

Image above shows two ripples in the flow.

Neither look totally closed off.

Time will tell soon.

Let's start at the very beginning, it's a very good place to start. When you have a storm headed towards South America you talk about the ABC islands. Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao are down in the Caribbean near South America and so is the #2 storm. After PCT2 affects Trindad and Tobago it will slide along coast of South America and even as a Tropical Storm it can make a huge impact. This region is not used to seeing storms, however Matthew visited the region last year. Often back to back seasons share patterns. Bret will most likely form from this and it will not be anything like Matthew, however it may share similarities with Tropical Storm Bret from 1993. To show how unusual this season is to most other seasons an early Tropical Storm formed in 1993 named Bret in AUGUST in the same place. That Bret was in August and this system we are watching is doing the same thing in June. I'm pointing this out to show how unusual it is to have a strong tropical wave that came off of Africa become a potential Tropical Cyclone in June and have it not be the A storm but the B storm. The region below may be under the gun from this tropical cyclone as it tries to maintain it's energy in the Eastern Caribbean.

Tropical Storm Bret in 1993.

Current image of the system from the floater.

Looks good.

Moving fast.

Current cone for #2 that could become Bret soon.

This system is forecast to stay low.

Barbados dropped it's watches and warnings.

Skims the coast of South America.

Slides fast into the Caribbean.

May stay alive and affect the ABC islands.

It's an evolving situation.

Is there something to the name Bret?

Time will tell what happens in 2017.

Below is a loop of what may be Bret below.

It may not look like all that.

But it's all that.

Spinning it's way fast towards the islands.

Gaining a bit of latitude as it moves West fast.

You can compare and contrast the above with below.

93L as it tries again to pull itself together.

93L is not all that yet.

Used the same imagery so you can compare better.

The Atlantic storm is one mass moving together, spinning.

The Mess in the NW Caribbean is trying to pull together.

It oozes, it moves about, it flares up and dies down.

Is there a center there? 

Is the center just about to come off of the Yucatan?

Possibly there is a center there.

But it's still has the N to S axis.

It's worth looking back at the models from last week that were vying for attention and you may remember they showed a long plume of tropical moisture in the Eastern GOM with a displaced center further to the West headed towards the Northern Gulf of Mexico coastline. You can see this set up happening already as everywhere from Cozumel to Key West has already had rain impacts from moisture caught up in the flow. Cuba has been under the tropical moisture gun from 93L for the last few days. That moisture may wrap up and form a center or it may squeak it's way into history as a large, poorly formed Tropical Storm that is pulled North towards an eventual landfall and the moisture, the tropical rain moves up into the Appalachians. If this happens it could be a huge event as some of the places need rain badly and other areas are prone to flooding. The timing on a tropical system riding a frontal boundary is as always iffy. And, there is still some hope for beaches further West along the GOM coast seeing this, however the models are coming together somewhere between Houston to Pensacola. If this season stays weak then rain will be sheared off to the East of a poorly formed center and Florida continues to get rain. Bottom line if you booked a Caribbean cruise with stops in Key West and Cozumel you may see more rainy days than you were hoping for but that's why cruises are cheap in the summertime and sometimes the Hurricane Season comes early. 

The morphed composite does show a few things.

A strong, busy ITCZ.

Much moisture in the Caribbean moving up into the GOM.

A slow possible roll starting at the tip of the Yucatan.

From far away you can see both our systems.

Lastly today I want to discuss what it is currently and take a look at the water vapor loop.

With due respect to the Euro...

...currently the door to the West is not there.

It could open up over time.

The flow is up into the GOM.

I've talked online about an ULL forming.

They can steer and ventilate a system.

Watch the GOM carefully.

Watch the frontal boundary carefully.

As the high digs in and moves West "Bret" moves West.

It's not Bret yet but the NHC forecasts it to be a 50 MPH Bret.

How far the High moves West....

How deep down the front move....Watch the High in the GOM.

Watch and see if the door opens for 93L

If the door opens for 93L to move to Texas it will grab it!

2 things to remember.

1. When things form in the tropics in the Atlantic in June it usually is a sign of a busy season. This rule goes back to Bill Gray who knew tropical weather better than anyone. And add to that we are looking for the B or C storm as the A storm has already formed. Those are another set of ABCs to remember today.

2. Dying, stalled out frontal boundaries mixing it up with weak, poorly formed tropical storms can create flooding misery for many in their path especially if they hook up. It may be a meteorological romance, however it often delivers huge flooding for people in it's path. 

3. Either area can get the Bret name if something changes rapidly in the NW Caribbean it could steal the name Bret and Cindy could be in the Atlantic headed towards the Caribbean. 

It all depends on how the Tropical World Turns..

Stay tuned. I'll update with information as soon as something changes. We may have a named Tropical Storm today or we may have another Tropical Depression or another Potential Tropical Cyclone. 

Besos BobbiStorm.

Follow me on Twitter @BobbiStorm for faster updates in real time as things evolve.

Ps Recon missions are scheduled and they often provide the information for better forecasting and they often make the call as to whether a system does or doesn't have a closed circulation center. So keep checking back often.

Oh and there's a new wave leaving Africa as we watch the other two systems ... never forget there are more waves over Africa westbound.

Model for #2 below.

Loop below shows 93L closing off and eventually hooking left.

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html

Stay tuned... nothing set in stone today.

Except more rain is on the way in the GOM.

I know, I know....