Wanda. Yellow Circle Seeds an EPAC Storm. Kind of the Story of the Year in the SW Caribbean

 

The hard to see red symbol is Wanda, mixed into that whole cloud mess on the other side of the ocean. It's also kind of hard to notice the yellow on the edge of a beach abiout to jump into the Eastern Pacific that is at 0% chances in the Atlantic.

But if you move on over to the Eastern Pacific part of the NHC Main Pages you will see our little X is healthier and is being given 30% chances of development in there. Actually another yellow circle pops up there on the 5 day as seen below.

This has really been the story of the year on many levels and will be researched by many to see why the East Pacific received so many of the low, westbound waves that normally potentially dangerous SW Caribbean  storms that gave them a longer season than normal. And, when I say that I mean normally as the Atlantic goes into high gear the East Pac slows down, there's a normal ebb and flow of energy and yet this year the seedlings for the dangerous SW Caribbean Storms all slid across the isthmus into the Pacific. 

In general the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season was either STORMY WILD or soooo slow. It had a sputtering sort of nature where everything formed in groups and you can see that by the graphic above. June and early July were busy, whereas later in July and August it was not. Late August and September were busy, though many were "shorties" that barely lasted yet did pump up the number of actual storms we had even if most of you cannot remember their name. Since the beginning of August it's been quiet.  Note if you take away all the blue dots and only look at the orange dashes you'll see we really didn't have such a busy season. It's really a matter of prespective. Quality over quantity and in this case we lucked out as Larry and his friend Sam both stayed out in the Atlantic putting on a colorful show on the satelitte imagery but not thrashing our beaches or drowning out cities so for that we are grateful.  It reminds me a lot of how morse code works, dot, dot, dot, dash, dot, dot ...well you get that if you ever learned Morse Code which I did but I do not really remember; a cute neighbor boy was involved who wanted to ran cables from our houses to each other so we could "talk" when we were young. (He was probably a boy scout now that I think about it)

I digress... because there really isn't much to talk about. If I go to Windy.com I'm prone to watch the images for cold weather and who is going to get some snow.

Why does the blue (really cold air)

stop at the Mason Dixie?

Kentucky gets it but not Tennessee?

Just odd things always amaze me on graphics like this.

But winter is coming.

Tropical storms are not.

So have a great day.

Malls have Christmas decorations up...

.... no real crowds where I live.

But the msuic is nice.

TJ Maxx is a winter wonderful.

Pink Flamingoes are in storage.

It's the sign of the times!!

Not proofing........

....I have a headache.

Wish I was in Key West this morning!

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

Ps... Where are you spending the holidays? 

Thanksgiving blends into Chanukah (early) this year.

Christmas... flows into New Years Eve.

I know... we haven't even eaten turkey yet for Thanksgiving.

2021 has been on Zoom Zoom time.......so do you have a clue?

Christmas Island - Jimmy Buffett.wmv By the way the locals used to call the small island to the West of Key West, but they developed it and renamed it Sunset Island. But it's really a place...........there's also another one, we have lots of names locals use for things down on the rock. 

EPAC Special Tropical Statement. Questions on El Nino and Winter of 2019 Abound... Stay Tuned for Surprises! Weather These Days is Like the Stock Market...

Eastern Pacific

January 2019

Putting this into the blog today and talking about it because anything that happens out of the ordinary needs discussing and bears watching. Yes I said bear.. it's kind of an old joke to some of us.. but true. And we are all watching the Stock Market even if we don't have money invested as we all have interests that it could affect down the line. The same with a system like this in that what happens there doesn't remain there it gets caught up in the flow. So yes...there's a circle in the Eastern Pacific and the National Hurricane Center decided to put out a Special Tropical Statement about it in January.

Orange circle up.

Discussion below.

Yes I know it's January.

Yes they start earlier than the Atlantic.

But rarely this early.

But weather happens.

Climate is the long term average.

Out of season development can happen.

Regardless of development....

Gale Force Winds likely over the weekend!

Why do we care?

What begins there....

...often ends up here.

Here being the East Coast.

That flow.... 

The signature of the last month.

Put it in motion:

Moisture caught in the flow...

A pattern seemingly stuck.

But is it?

I've spoken about this with a few of my friends lately in that it seems despite all the headlines and comments made we are in a strange time with mixed signals weather wise. There's a lot of volatility going on both in the market and in the weather world. We had an extremely cold winter like period during the fall in November where we had surprise snow storms in New York and Raleigh got a nice sampling of the winter stuff.... however December rolled in with warmer temperatures (that were forecast) and all we've seen is rain, rain and more rain. Raleigh broke records in 2018 for rainfall totals due to a wet year and two hurricanes that dumped huge amounts of tropical rain on us and now deeper into Winter we have rain from a moist subtropical flow. Where do we go from here? Oklahoma City has had warm temperatures yet they cooled off enough to get snow, freezing rain and sleet yesterday finally. Snow lovers there better be happy. But, the snow is going to melt fast the way it did here in Raleigh as temperatures rose fast into the 60s following the snow. Sound a bit like the stock market?

El Nino is constantly being discussed and I mean constantly on any given day in the weather world. As I have said nonstop here online for old timers no two El Ninos are the same and no two hurricane seasons are the same. The variance in the weather patterns as the Northern Jet hands off to the Southern Jet to where they both meet up for a quick fling and then go back to doing their thing defines what our weather is like on a day to day basis on the East Coast.

Add in a big player that produces gale force winds over the weekend and a big sloppy storm into California and that impacts weather in every city from California to New Jersey down the weather road. The big player that seemingly is in hiding is the flow that dips down from the Arctic and until that sleeping bear wakes up we are in for more wet, wicked, unseasonably warm winter rain patterns. As usual when it's warm here it's cold in Europe and it's snowing in Greece as I type this where my brother lives. Weather in the South Atlantic was so problematic a few days ago they rerouted my other brother's cruise ship to a different port. When we don't have the usual suspects on the weather map we often end up with unusual weather. So keep watching. Make sure those weather apps are activated as I'm getting the sense more and more that we may end up with some surprise weather on the East Coast somewhere. There's also a huge area off the East coast producing high surf in some places. And the beat goes on... 

Personally I agree.

Something bothering me too..

Questions that will get answers soon.

May you have an awesome weekend! Don't believe those constant long term predictions of snow that get pushed off every day to a later date on your weather apps but do believe the weather app when it says tornadoes or severe weather or fog may show up in your designated area in the next six to twelve hours. Pay attention!

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter... follow me there for fast weather updates.

Ps.... a chaser chases and when there is a lack of hurricanes or snow to chase they chase whatever is interesting. Mike chased fog last night on Facebook and his viewers were excited to see him go live. And the fog that was ghost like indeed on the field near where he lives lit up by bright lights was enchanting to watch. Make sure you follow him on Facebook... Lord only knows where that boy will show up when he's reading to chase someone or something or some kind of weather ;)https://www.facebook.com/mikesweatherpage/

Updated! CARIBBEAN GETS A YELLOW CIRCLE. NORMAN IN PACIFIC GOES MAJOR IN A BIG WAY. PTC6 Forms. Potential Tropical Storm. Forecast to be a TS in 24 Hrs or Less, Hurricane Down the Road. Name Will Be Florence. Tropical Wave Closer to SE Coast Being Watched. More Updates Later Today.

7 PM Update.

Things worth thinking on.

The X is where the area is currently.

The circle is where it is expected to form.

Remember this is a forecast it's not set in stone.

Expected is the key word.

Anywhere in that bigger circle.

The long awaited yellow circle in the Carib is here.

So now what? 

We watch it.

Again it will go where there is low pressure.

It will stay away from high pressure.

If shear is weak, it develops more.

Let us look at the two pictures below.

Picasso couldn't do better than Mother Nature.

Note the large area of convection in the GOM

Near where the current yellow circle is....

...note the large wave bottom right.

It has a look the wave... just saying.

I wouldn't be surprised if it develops.

Again note the closeness of the convection to it's NW.

There is a high aloft.

It only has one place to go.

High pressure to the North.

It goes WNW towards the Low Pressure.

I'm not saying it's super low pressure there now..

(Jim... talking comparatively, where there's convection... 

... the pressures are lower than to the North)

So keep watching.

Note there are already heavy rains in PR.

You don't need a name to get dangerous amounts of rain.

Note everyone's watching the shear charts.

As lowered shear will tell much of the story.

Now as for PTC6 

(almost rhymes...

PEE TEE CEE 6 ..see?)

To be clear what a PTC6 is I've shown Phil's post.

Phil is a friend. He is a good man.

A very good meteorologist.

Good explanation....

..as it can be confusing.

Now why am I talking about Norman?

I say all the time the Pacific is not my ocean...

It's a good lesson in how fast things can change.

Norman was expected to develop some...

But nowhere near as strong as it is..

Note the following discussion.

Yesterday... 

Expected to top out at 125 MPH.

Your regular run of the mill discussion.

Later Wednesday.
SHIPS model mentioned.

Rapid Intensification very high.

Talk on the ridge, direction, etc.

Expected to top out at 130 MPH.

Tonight.

150 MPH.

20 MPH more than forecast.

Now they are forecasting 155 MPH...

How high can it go?

My goodness.

I don't really mean to be sarcastic.
I mean to educate that hurricanes are unpredictable.

Even in today's age with good modeling.

Luckily Norman isn't threatening land.

Now replace Norman with the Labor Day Hurricane.

Wilma when she exploded... 

Katrina in the GOM

Never believe a forecast 100%

In the 24 hour it's solid.

3 Day forecast is very good usually.

5 Day is often good.

But when someone tells you:

"It's a fish storm"

"Stick a fork in it.. it's all over"

Do not believe it until you see it.

The NHC corrects in real time ...

...responding to what the storm does.

Models correct to reality as well.

If a hurricane is out there somewhere near you...

...or way to the South of you or SE..

Watch it.

If a strong tropical wave is forecast to develop some..

... pay attention.

Check back often.

Andrew was supposed to catch the trof to the Carolinas.

Andrew was supposed to die and was on life support.

Then something changed.

Remember that.

I'll update as needed.

If you haven't read this earlier...

...continue reading.

If not... 

Sweet Tropical Dreams.

* * *

Guess we can call today a day of Live Blogging. Not making a new post for a Potential Tropical Cyclone though the name is a good call as it's still crawling off the coast of Africa as seen below on images I've posted. Forecast discussion shows their solid belief that this becomes the 3rd Hurricane of the 2018 Hurricane Season (if you are keeping track) so not such a slow season number wise even if many were Subtropical Storms or short lived storms.

Kind of an "in abundance of caution"

They need to designate it to put up watches and warnings.

Government agencies have rules you know.

Rules are often good to have.

Guidelines.

Something I want you to think on as in "notice" in that it is a common signature as the tropics heat up. You can see where our undeveloped Tropical Wave in the Caribbean is on a thin leash of moisture to the ITCZ in the Atlantic that goes all the way back to what will be Florence. This is how storms connect and stay alive. They need moisture. Often there is a hand off of energy from one area to the other as the tropical waves progress West. Note how it sucks up the "orange energy" from the ITCZ in the MDR (Main Development Region of the Atlantic) and then starts to suck up energy from moisture down near South America. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/natl/anim/latest72hrs.gif

The link is above if this doesn't work well.

You never know with this site so posting the link as well.

Stay tuned.

More updates later as information is updated.

From earlier today.

Note the discussion on the Tropical Wave in the Carib below.

And it's something to watch.

NWS New Orleans is watching it.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=AFD&issuedby=LIX

DaBuh posted it earlier today.

He's good.

He knows where to look ....

...especially when it comes to waves.

(he's a surfer... it's a joke....smile)

Miami NWS is watching it also.

You don't need a yellow circle from the NHC..

...to know something's out there.

See Miami discussion below.

NOT in the Long Term though.

Let's call it the Labor Day Tropical Wave for now.

* * *

We went from a wave to PTC6 in hours ...

...after it rolled off of Africa.

How bout those water temps now?

We are heading into tropical trouble now.

September Remember

All the basics are up on Spaghetti Models.

Models in the short term show a Fish Storm.

F for Florence the Fish Storm.

But down the road things might change.

Is the strong high really opening up wide?

Could it snap back shut?

We will know soon enough.

NRL has the page up but few images yet.

We have just begun studying it.

That will change.

Well that's a done deal. You can see the circulation tightly wound up below. Watches and warnings will need to be hoisted it seems for the Cabo Verde Islands. Expect a Tropical Depression to form soon from the short lived Invest 90L that is being studied. I'll update this later today as watches and warnings are posted and there is more actual discussion on Invest 90L that will become Florence it seems soon. Doubtful the tropical wave in the Caribbean could develop that fast to steal that name from what is already a done deal.

https://earth.nullschool.net

Mike has the link always on his site.

Great produce.

www.spaghettimodels.com

You don't have to ask why they need to put out a package.

Often the CV Islands are the first to see the storm.

The product above tells the story.

The story's name is Florence.

You can see her clearly shown below.

This has been forecast for days to be a "Fish Storm"

Though again I have low confidence

Track is set for the next 3 to 5 days.

Beyond that I'll wait to see what develops.

I'll update later as information comes in.

As for the tropical wave close to the US that everyone is watching, but the NHC has not yet designated in tropical update as of 8 AM. That could change, but the wave itself has to change or get into a better place int he atmosphere to allow development. What concerns me is that South Florida has been plagued daily by strong thunderstorms as one tropical wave after another has crossed over that area for the last few months. They are just waves and they amp up the already unstable air into huge colorful displays of monsoonal masterpieces as people try to navigate through the traffic on I95 while taking pictures of what seems like end of the world storms. My daughter was stuck in flooding on I95 in one of those storms as the water on the highway rose fast and luckily she was able to get where she is going and drain out the car.......  

So should anything develop and get into that sweet spot where low pressure is more available and the shear is low, the tropical wave could go from nothing much to something really fast. That happens often as the waters that surround the Florida peninsular are close to 90 degrees this time of year. So while there is nothing there currently we have to watch carefully when we see a strong "robust" tropical wave that stubbornly made it across the Atlantic despite SAL and lower water temperatures and strong shear there as well. Keep watching. 

You know it's September in Miami when you wake up to "Morning Rain" and that's a sign the pattern has changed, the calendar page is about to be turned and we remember it's prime time in the tropics.

People from North Carolina to Texas this time of year begin evaluating each storm from their perspective as well as their own excellent knowledge of the hurricane history in their own part of the world. No one has to remind New Orleans as www.nola.com knows as they re dealing with the anniversary of Hurricane Katrina this week. 

Stay tuned.......it's that time of year when those tropical waves begin to Twist and Shout even if they are screaming "Fish Storms" we always have to watch them as they are prone to do some unexpected things.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter