Hurricane Models. Will MJO & Kelvin Wave Give the Tropics the Kick It Needs to Knock Out Some Real Hurricanes? Fall Fashions. Green is Good Remember That. Extra Credit... Will a Hurricane Hit Charleston on Eclipse Day. I wonder if there is a line on that in Vegas yet? Hmnn Men, Music, Memories

Top part of above graph is most current time period.
Bottom part is as we move deep along in time.
A 40 day forecast...
You know me I don't like to go beyond the 7 day.
But it's worth talking about.

Continuing with yesterdays fashion theme. One of the colors for Fall is green. Not a bright green, but it's green. We associate green with fertile, tropical foliage begging us to take selfie's to send home in the middle of the cold, white winter or post on Facebook. Green mean "GO" and we all learned in high school it's the light at the end of Daisy's dock begging Gatsby to GO for Daisy the love of his life. And when dealing with the tropics the MJO "GREEN" is good, brown is not. So let's look at the MJO up there again and think on it a bit. Mike brought this up on Facebook this morning so it's fair game today. You can join in the discussion there as he loves to shoot the tropical breeze and we love talking tropics with Mike from Spaghetti Models.

https://www.facebook.com/mikesweatherpage he's all over the MJO this morning. I'm trying to lose myself in something like fashion as we are weeks away from football of any kind and just as many weeks probably from football. Thankfully I have other interests...But the dots connect or in this case the colors do! Follow along it's not all fashion but hey you might learn something. Oh and I'm doing the music thing this morning while the TWC is on MUTE so sing along!

"Gatsby believed in the green light, the orgastic future that year by year recedes before us. It eluded us then, but that's no matter—tomorrow we will run faster, stretch out our arms farther.... And then one fine morning—So we beat on, boats against the current, borne back ceaselessly into the past." That's the actual quote just so you know..

In school I was taught it meant money*

He needed money honey to woo Daisy

I always felt it meant GO for Green.

Who knows.

The goal here on this blog is to talk on the tropics

The tropics are not cooperating.

Some people don't believe in the whole MJO thing.

Jim Williams from www.hurricanecity.com doesn't.

He calls it "mostly junk observations"

Jim is sort of a purist when it comes to weather.

Jim also lives on Climo Wheaties.

He doesn't read the back of the cereal box until August.

Of course if something has a name he will be forced to...

Some of us stare and follow every wave across the Atlantic.

In hopes we will one day reach out, stretch out arms...

...and see a real hurricane forming in the Atlantic one day.

Ignore the wave approaching the islands.

Going poof.

But it's there......remember that.

;)

So let's look below at some old graphs.

Old as in yesterday's fashion.

Ignored like the Revlon pale pink polish marked down to $1

Oddly it still works and Opi is selling that color for $10

The graphic below seems out of fashion these days.

Look at all the tropical possibilities out there today.

Purple beads across the Atlantic.

Red candy striped in the Atlantic.

Yellow long range splotches in the Carib.

The only purple the NHC knows is "NO NO NO!"

It's not happening today.

Which brings us to another color.

Purple.

Years ago in the distant past we used to look for purple.

Purple meant we might get something spinning soon.

But alas the EURO and GFS are color blind.

The CMC is not and is way more fun but I really digress ;)

NHC on the main stage ignores the wave that made it across.

At some point they will not be able to keep ignoring them.

Sorry Uncle Albert.......

Or Uncle whoever..............

Should I talk about the models, the inconsistent models??? (quoting Willy here) 

So many are so "it's not gonna happen... we are never gonna have a hurricane ever again" Oh Lord got to let it go.. It's July. Give it 10 days or 11 days as we move day by day towards August and then there is September when Hurricanes really do happy. Summertime is for being down and and hot and singing the blues... saying goodbye, thinking it's all over and then...comes September.

Okay so fine.. I'll do the models. Follow along but remember they could be wrong.

Euro hints at some subtle changes but not crossing the pond on a row boat for Emily.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=atl&pkg=mslpaNorm

You know often when the real players refuse to show up the Canadian does and boy does he show up. Seriously NEVER disappoints ... really. Trying not to digress here but definitely smiling.

Talk about orgastic!

Begins here by the way below from an African Wave

You know those persistent waves.

To stay in tune with our fall colors see below.

Switching over to another other site less in vogue.

But still a good site!

Loop and have fun... a real Cane shows up!

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2017072500&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Green is good.

Brown is not.

The longer term model keeps on going.

Could just be a fish storm.

Time will tell.

The A Team is watching the dance in the Pacific.

The FUJIWARA dance.

Hilary and ?

I'm really trying not to follow that plot line.

It's like GH I just pretty much gave up on it.

But a lot of people are enjoying that scenario.

Other dream scenarios include a hurricane over Charleston.

Well you know on eclipse day.

With the skies clearing just in time to see the total eclipse.

Oh what dreamers we meteorologist be.

(That's pure BobbiStorm not Shakespeare)

So below this is the track of Hugo in 1989.

Next we have the track of the Eclipse.

Climo wise that could verify ...

..or come close enough for Jimbo to cover both in one spot!

Add in the secret ingredient.

The KELVIN WAVE

You can read up on this more if you desire. Google Kelvin Waves. Trust me Jim Williams doesn't think much on Kelvin Waves either. What he does believe in is CLIMO and hurricanes will happen trust me.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/belletal2007.pdf

I'll leave you with a nice song to let you think on the following names in the Atlantic. Maybe by the time we get to H and J we will have something intense we won't forget so easily and won't remember how we sat around in July complaining there was nothing out there to get excited about. There are a lot of names to think on. I personally love the Harvey name and "Jose does Miami" would look great in headlines. Katia... ummm  Stay tuned. Find whatever it is that makes you smile and enjoy it. For some it's a hobby, for some it's a lover, for some it's a walk on the beach or a dance in a disco. Just do it! And as for summer it moves on into Fall. Fall Fashion colors below. Soon I'll be wearing leggings with my short skirts and taking long walks outside feeling a cool breeze and swearing I will not drink a Pumpkin Spice Latte but you know I will. Well, unless I'm home in Miami cause no cool breeze there til after the hurricane season is over and in Miami I only drink Cuban Coffee. Again remember seeing Green is good... beige, brown are not good. Watch the fashions, watch the MJO and keep on reading my blog. Going way over a Million hits gave me a huge smile. Thank you...

Which name will you remember?

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm

Ps This blog should be renamed "trying to make Fishing laugh" and remembering the men and the songs I've loved.

* Masters Classes in Fitzgerald, Faulkner and Hemingway. (Did you really scroll down to see if I left an Asterisk???)

UPDATED 3 PM! -Monday in Tropics Starring Invest 94L & Models Guessing at Where It's Going. Don Forecast to Form in MDR -- Then What?

Invest 94L 

70 % as of 2 PM.

Worth remembering models developed this after 40 West.

94L currently battling dry air and cooler water.

Begins to feel the warmer water soon.

So let's see what happens then.

The Euro chimed in seeing a weaker system.

Possible. IF so it would stay further South.

Will it make that curve some models show out to sea?

Time will tell.

Stay tuned.

We got lots of time to watch.

Keep reading if you did not do so earlier this morning!

I'm going to go long on images and short on words this morning. I will update later today with a post most likely so check back later. These are just the facts mostly in three part harmony. I said days ago that everyone should wait until after July 4th to see the tropics have better chances of activity in the Atlantic Ocean. We are watching a fledgling tropical wave known as Invest 94L trying to form into a Tropical Depression and take a shot at the name Don. It's a process that happens in real time. Often a wave that tests well on aptitude tests does not live up to it's potential much to the chagrin of tropical guidance counselors. So remember that today.

Official state of the tropics from the NHC

70% chances in the 5 day.

Area where it could form below.

Where we are now today.

X marks the spot.

Last night this is what it looked like when it became 94L

What it looks like this morning as 94L

12 hours or so later.

Hmnnn...

You can see why they have upped the odds to 70%

It's bulked up as I suggested a few days ago.

CV waves need to bulk up to battle with SAL

There is a semblance above of rotation coming together.

On the NRL site we slice and dice Invests ...

...shows us what's in those other satellite images.

convection, banding, pretty purple

Each view checks for something specific.

Why I wanted an Invest ....

...with designation you get NRL and a floater.

The floater is at the top of the page in motion.

Visible floater below:

And the models.

You always want to know what the models show...

3 models all for July 13th.

Euro, GFS and Canadian.

In that order.

My thoughts below.

My bottom line for this morning's post. What I find most interesting about the above 3 model images is that they all end up with the same final outcome and yet each has a vastly different story to tell getting there. It's like 3 cars set out from Miami to drive to let's say New York City.

One let's call it the Euro had a boring, slow ride stopping at mediocre but clean motels and nothing really happened until it got to the Florida Georgia line then decided to spend the night at a cute beach hotel somewhere. And it was okay but nothing really to buy a post card and write home about. 

The GFS car has the speakers blaring, the top down and they are singing along to every 1980s disco hit they remember with an occasional show tune thrown in along the way. They are sipping milk shakes and singing songs and having a blast. They are staying at hotels with room service the whole time.

The Canadian that is often set to party hardy forgets to pack the snacks and goes back for what it forgot after making a U turn across the meridian and then bulks up for it's long ride back up north.

Each of these tropical travelers have cousins soon to depart after a Safari in Africa where they do not kill the animals but just do photo shoots so no animals were injured for this tropical fantasy.

You can find these models in many places but the always excellent Levi Cowan from Tropical Tidbits has a link at the top left of Spaghetti Models. www.spaghettimodels.com

The links for those 3 images above are shown below:

GFS:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=atl&pkg=mslpaNorm

EURO:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=atl&pkg=mslpaNorm

Canadian:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=atl&pkg=mslpaNorm&runtime=2017070300&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=0

(check that dance out near Africa ... whoa)

It is important to remember these models update and change their minds often or fantasize for 12 hours about doing something totally different before often snapping back to the original plan. Have you never started a trip and insisted you would not stop to do something and the next thing you know you took veered off of I95 and traveled up 301 for a while and had the best time? Happens.

So the point here is that ALL 3 models show something off the SE coast but with varying different strengths and tracks. Much of the final outcome depends on trofs forming and an intensity that is currently unknown for what may be Don down the road. Don for now is unpredictable but definitely seems to be a player. Invest 94L learned from the fast moving waves before it and is slowing down like the proverbial turtle and in doing so it is basically wetting up the atmosphere for the waves to follow and there is one beautiful wave over Africa that will benefit from Invest 94L's slow movement punching holes in SAL and creating a better path for those later waves that are more in line with climo and that are showing up earlier and earlier this year than other years. August may be the new September.

Stay tuned. For now 94L is in the building stages of his long trip across the Tropical Atlantic and no track is set in stone. And the intensity is unknown. Ever decide to go rent a car for a vacation and you are sure you will get a compact car and you end up driving out with a beautiful mid size sedan with lots of extras? You are taking a trip for sure but you don't always know which car you will get until you get to the rental lot and they play Let's Make a Deal... 

Stay tuned. 

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter.

Follow me on Twitter for faster updates in real time.

https://www.facebook.com/bobbi.storm.5?fref=search

Y'all come back now real soon ya hear ;)

State of the Tropics in the Atlantic Basin Monday Morning While Hurricane Dora Dances In the Eastern Pacific.

Hurricane Dora is in the Epac moving WNW out to sea. Pretty hurricane and not expected to a problem for anyone and of course no one is really paying attention. Like in Real Estate it's all about location and Dora is in the wrong location for Atlantic Basin people. If we had a hurricane in the Atlantic moving WNW at 13 mph the islands might be in it's way. Just the way of the world in that we tend to ignore the hurricanes in the Eastern Pacific while counting 5, 6, 7 days until our side of the world becomes active again.

Pretty quiet on our side of the world.

There is some cloud clutter in the areas known to show June development in most years. Storms flare up and die out in the BOC and down in the cradle of the SW Caribbean near Panama storms pulsate and go flat just as fast. It's part of the ongoing process. SAL is strong in the Eastern Atlantic as if someone remembered suddenly to turn the switch on. There are waves but they are not overly exciting waves unable to do battle with cousin Sal. We ( a group of weather friends online) like to call him "cousin" because well you know how those difficult cousins are in any large family. Everyone's got one or two or three and you can't live with them and you can't live without em. With any luck they are loyal good friends as well as partners in crime but they have a tendency to take all the air out of the room at a family gathering by reminding everyone about the one thing no one wanted to be reminded of...

This blog should be subtitled...

"Don't stop believing..."

Note far to the right, down low is a wave that looks interesting. That's why we call this "wave watching" in that it starts with a wave. You thought I was gonna say "kiss" didn't you? And that wave has to catch the eye of the right people at the exact same time as the models suddenly close off Lows and show moisture congregating in all the right places with pressures dropping and well you know the rest of the story. Otherwise we spend most of our time studying old hurricanes to learn from the past to deal with the next big hurricane. Patterns, it's all about patterns. Whether we are talking about the news or the weather it's all about patterns. A friend put this image up this morning and in ways he's right especially as he knows waves of all kinds.

He's a smart guy that's a little crazy. He probably doesn't mind being called crazy as much as a "little" crazy as he does things in big ways. But, he's right patterns are known to produce tropical cyclones. When we are really bored suddenly in the tropics after so much food at the "All You Can Eat Tropical Buffet" we start to watch the Canadian model yelling at it a bit "hit me with your best shot, fire away!!!"

Luckily for us crazy types the Canadian never disappoints. 

That's about a week out so don't hold your breath!

The EURO took a vacation to a beach in Majorca.

Watch out for sharks ....by the way.

The GFS long range model shown above in an image taken from www.tropicaltidbits.com shows a nice, large African wave setting sail on a journey across the ocean. That is very long range as in after you ate too much watermelon and drank too much beer over July 4th weekend! It's after a week of intermittent, weak waves trying to form with high pressure areas popping up for no apparent reason and then suddenly the MOTHER LODE... a big, huge, healthy wave riding low trying to avoid SAL. Yes, there has been whispers and chatter on this wave and the beginning of the CV season starting off in early July. Whether you insist on calling it a Cape Verde wave or you try and be politically correct and call it a Cabo Verde wave an African wave that's viable by any name is akin to a perfect rose for people who spend hours tending their garden trying to coax that one long stem beauty into perfection. A long range model is akin to a run on sentence that needs to be edited down or left alone under the guise of "my writing style" and if you are still reading this you must like my writing as...there is nothing happening currently in the Atlantic Tropical Basin.

I could wax poetic on the area of convection near the BOC but I'm really more of an African 

Wave girl who likes to ride a really long wave. I don't want to hear one great song and then leave the party I want to dance all night. I want to wake up in the morning and watch sunrise, then walk the length of Simonton (which makes no sense to you unless you have done it) and then watch the sunset. I want a long tracker, real tropical cyclone vs some sacrificial tropical depression offered to ancient Mayan Gods who refuse to let the season begin without one very mediocre named tropical storm. Please let that one be Don as I'm not up to the nonstop jokes the media will make on Hurricane Don. Let's just not go there. Make Don a fish storm and let's let this be the year that the name Emily is finally retired!!

And that's the state of the tropic this Monday Morning. Keep watching. If anything pops up on the models in the short term that was not there last night or this morning I'll mention it. I'd be very shocked if we don't have a healthy wave with designation after July 4th weekend and so I suggest you all do your July 4th thing and enjoy the end of June and early July before we start rocking and rolling again. The period from July 7th to July 13th looks ripe for trouble. 

I could be right, I could be wrong but the guy who liked that song was a lot of fun to dance with all night long ;)

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter.

Follow me on Twitter 

Ps I'm not a big Billy Joel fan, really more an 80s girl but... 

... you might be the lunatic I'm looking for...

2 great names Billy and Joel

You can't go wrong with those two.