UPDATED 3 PM! -Monday in Tropics Starring Invest 94L & Models Guessing at Where It's Going. Don Forecast to Form in MDR -- Then What?

Invest 94L 

70 % as of 2 PM.

Worth remembering models developed this after 40 West.

94L currently battling dry air and cooler water.

Begins to feel the warmer water soon.

So let's see what happens then.

The Euro chimed in seeing a weaker system.

Possible. IF so it would stay further South.

Will it make that curve some models show out to sea?

Time will tell.

Stay tuned.

We got lots of time to watch.

Keep reading if you did not do so earlier this morning!

I'm going to go long on images and short on words this morning. I will update later today with a post most likely so check back later. These are just the facts mostly in three part harmony. I said days ago that everyone should wait until after July 4th to see the tropics have better chances of activity in the Atlantic Ocean. We are watching a fledgling tropical wave known as Invest 94L trying to form into a Tropical Depression and take a shot at the name Don. It's a process that happens in real time. Often a wave that tests well on aptitude tests does not live up to it's potential much to the chagrin of tropical guidance counselors. So remember that today.

Official state of the tropics from the NHC

70% chances in the 5 day.

Area where it could form below.

Where we are now today.

X marks the spot.

Last night this is what it looked like when it became 94L

What it looks like this morning as 94L

12 hours or so later.

Hmnnn...

You can see why they have upped the odds to 70%

It's bulked up as I suggested a few days ago.

CV waves need to bulk up to battle with SAL

There is a semblance above of rotation coming together.

On the NRL site we slice and dice Invests ...

...shows us what's in those other satellite images.

convection, banding, pretty purple

Each view checks for something specific.

Why I wanted an Invest ....

...with designation you get NRL and a floater.

The floater is at the top of the page in motion.

Visible floater below:

And the models.

You always want to know what the models show...

3 models all for July 13th.

Euro, GFS and Canadian.

In that order.

My thoughts below.

My bottom line for this morning's post. What I find most interesting about the above 3 model images is that they all end up with the same final outcome and yet each has a vastly different story to tell getting there. It's like 3 cars set out from Miami to drive to let's say New York City.

One let's call it the Euro had a boring, slow ride stopping at mediocre but clean motels and nothing really happened until it got to the Florida Georgia line then decided to spend the night at a cute beach hotel somewhere. And it was okay but nothing really to buy a post card and write home about. 

The GFS car has the speakers blaring, the top down and they are singing along to every 1980s disco hit they remember with an occasional show tune thrown in along the way. They are sipping milk shakes and singing songs and having a blast. They are staying at hotels with room service the whole time.

The Canadian that is often set to party hardy forgets to pack the snacks and goes back for what it forgot after making a U turn across the meridian and then bulks up for it's long ride back up north.

Each of these tropical travelers have cousins soon to depart after a Safari in Africa where they do not kill the animals but just do photo shoots so no animals were injured for this tropical fantasy.

You can find these models in many places but the always excellent Levi Cowan from Tropical Tidbits has a link at the top left of Spaghetti Models. www.spaghettimodels.com

The links for those 3 images above are shown below:

GFS:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=atl&pkg=mslpaNorm

EURO:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=atl&pkg=mslpaNorm

Canadian:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=atl&pkg=mslpaNorm&runtime=2017070300&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=0

(check that dance out near Africa ... whoa)

It is important to remember these models update and change their minds often or fantasize for 12 hours about doing something totally different before often snapping back to the original plan. Have you never started a trip and insisted you would not stop to do something and the next thing you know you took veered off of I95 and traveled up 301 for a while and had the best time? Happens.

So the point here is that ALL 3 models show something off the SE coast but with varying different strengths and tracks. Much of the final outcome depends on trofs forming and an intensity that is currently unknown for what may be Don down the road. Don for now is unpredictable but definitely seems to be a player. Invest 94L learned from the fast moving waves before it and is slowing down like the proverbial turtle and in doing so it is basically wetting up the atmosphere for the waves to follow and there is one beautiful wave over Africa that will benefit from Invest 94L's slow movement punching holes in SAL and creating a better path for those later waves that are more in line with climo and that are showing up earlier and earlier this year than other years. August may be the new September.

Stay tuned. For now 94L is in the building stages of his long trip across the Tropical Atlantic and no track is set in stone. And the intensity is unknown. Ever decide to go rent a car for a vacation and you are sure you will get a compact car and you end up driving out with a beautiful mid size sedan with lots of extras? You are taking a trip for sure but you don't always know which car you will get until you get to the rental lot and they play Let's Make a Deal... 

Stay tuned. 

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter.

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Y'all come back now real soon ya hear ;)