Updated. Will Don Form on the Fourth of July? Maybe... Soon. NHC Gives 80% in 5 Day & 70% in 2 Day. NRL Has a Map Grid UP... My thoughts & Some Other Good Thoughts From Around the Meteorological World on July 4th and Musical Thoughts

Brief update to add.

Nothing much has changed.

It's obvious 94L is trying to wrap.

The problem is it takes one step forward.

Two steps back.

SAL is riding it hard.

Older image above.

Newer image below.

You can see the SAL erodes the N side of 94L 

94L is hanging in there.

A bit more round.

Still lacking the convection.

It's trying.

My issue is with models.

A wave this weak fighting negative conditions.

Even if it attains minimal storm status... or TD status..

... would most likely go West under the SAL.

Or give it up to the SAL.

These were supposed to be the positive environment days.

Down the road is a thin wall of shear.

Between here and there is a drama going on.

Please continue reading.

Good Morning America...

July 4th Tropical Update.

Models over night pulled a bit to the South.

Does the soon to be Don affect the Islands?

Or go up and over the Islands?

Does it die a slow death down the road...

... hang on and create problems down the road for the US.

Fish storm or ???

Let's look at the NHC for guidance.

It's a very good place to start.

When you read you begin with ABC..

..when a storm gets formed it's all about the NHC !

That's a red dot on the 2 day with 70% chances.

Seems soon to be Don is wearing red boxers today!

The 5 day is 80% but that's not as important.

Why is that less important? Because when you have 70% in the 2 day you are almost there. Way better than average odds for upgrade. In the 5 AM discussion it was mentioned that Tropical

Storm force winds were found in a small area near the center. The NRL has a map up for an area of development and that's put up before upgrade on most days.

That's my point here today.

Everything's getting into place.

See the map itself below.

That Navy site known as NRL puts out information for all the ships at sea as they say in the movies however many agencies use their information. It's one of the best sites to slice and dice a storm and look into it's developing bands. Its shows the track so far (including that not so talked about dip to the SW) and the grid area showing where it may go and where it may form. That is not the same as the models I will show below. It's a formation zone alert of sorts.

These models are posted on many sites.

Spaghetti Models posts them together making it easy.

Easy is good. 

Mike handles the complicated tasks.

He's good at tracking.

Jim Cantore said this about 94L aka Don.

ASCAT passed directly over 94L.

ASCAT liked what it saw.

ASCAT showed TS winds.

Note he often shows the wind site on Spaghetti Models.

We like that... 

Shows close but no cigar yet.

Almost closed off.

Not yet separated from the "Monsoon Trough" as Jim mentioned.

Once you see that close off completely we will have Don.

And Don is waiting in the wings, you can trust me on that.

Will Don be born on the 4th of July?

There's the big question of the day.

Water temperatures may help push it over the edge.

http://www.hurrtracker.com/

One of the best Apps around.

Use it as an App or online or follow them on Twitter.

@hurrtrackerapp

As 94L moves closer to warmer water... 

.... convection flares up.

You can see this process currently going on.

Up close:

Wider view:

That's the Central Atlantic Satellite Image.

94L slowly moving into our side of the world.

The SAL to it's North is huge.

And the SAL is keeping development slow.

Steady as he goes as he gets closer to the Islands.

If you have been watching TWC this morning.

You may have noticed this song playing.

I'm familiar with it as I have kids who like Weezer.

And 94L is holding on... 

...not giving up and that's a concern down the road.

Why am I talking about down the road?

It's track is pretty set for the next few days.

West or WNW depending on which model you like.

Don't forget it dipped SW for a bit yesterday.

Dragged the models to the South as Mike said at the top ;)

But then many models show it getting up this way.

Weak or a bit stronger.

Each model is a bit different.

But many show the same basic plot line.

Note @DadaBuh is talking LONG RANGE. And let's be honest unless you are taking a Caribbean cruise everyone is looking long range. In Texas and New Orleans they are watching if it has any chances in getting into the Gulf of Mexico. How you ask? Through the Caribbean or the Florida Straits or across Florida as a model showed yesterday. If you are in Florida you are obviously watching as are people up in North Carolina. See the images up above. For that matter people all the way up the coast to New England aren't turning their back on an Atlantic cruiser that began over Africa. But that's very long range, way too far for anyone but Superman with Xray vision to be able to say. Until this forms and until we get recon in and the data from the recon into the models everything is speculation. Remember that. I put it in bold on purpose. Better data from recon gives us better model output. And without a verified center, closed off and moving away from the Monsoon Trof we are still throwing darts at a map with guidance that's as good as it gets in 2017.

But some models do suggest it has troubles down the road holding it's own, yet never totally falling apart. From history we know that can be a problem. Why? Because if a storm forms FAST and gets STRONG and gets pulled North as strong storms often do then they usually become FISH storms. They worry Florida and North Carolina some, kick up the surf at OBX and then swim away. Sometimes Bermuda gets storms that are fish storms to us but not to them. A storm that gets wishy washy on intensity can linger longer, it can stay further to the South and get trapped under a ridge or get pushed West when the Bermuda High finds it's groove again. So in this particular case a weak tropical storm wobbling about trying to find a place to intensify again bodes problems down the road we don't want to deal with right now.

Everyone asks about shear.

Here's where shear throws a monkey wrench.

Keeps it weak.

That can affect track.

See below:

And including this into the final mix this morning.

Good honest thoughts on the current model imagery.

(Agree "this jump silly" . . )

And speaking of Spaghetti Models...

...you know where to find me.

I'm there often or on Mike's page on Facebook.

People exchange thoughts and it's good to see what people ask.

It helps me to know what people want to hear.

What do you want to know?

We all want to know the same basic thing.

https://www.facebook.com/mikesweatherpage/?fref=nf

Are we there yet?

Has Don formed?

Can Don affect the USA?

Stay tuned....

I'll update later today.

Have a wonderful 4th of July.

Whether you have hot dogs, hamburgers or Sushi... 

Have a wonderful day and stay safe and be happy!!!

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter.

Follow me on Twitter for immediate responses.

Twitter is great for getting updates fast.

Pick your favorite choice of July 4th music..

Another July 4th favorite... since way back in my AOL days ;)

UPDATED 3 PM! -Monday in Tropics Starring Invest 94L & Models Guessing at Where It's Going. Don Forecast to Form in MDR -- Then What?

Invest 94L 

70 % as of 2 PM.

Worth remembering models developed this after 40 West.

94L currently battling dry air and cooler water.

Begins to feel the warmer water soon.

So let's see what happens then.

The Euro chimed in seeing a weaker system.

Possible. IF so it would stay further South.

Will it make that curve some models show out to sea?

Time will tell.

Stay tuned.

We got lots of time to watch.

Keep reading if you did not do so earlier this morning!

I'm going to go long on images and short on words this morning. I will update later today with a post most likely so check back later. These are just the facts mostly in three part harmony. I said days ago that everyone should wait until after July 4th to see the tropics have better chances of activity in the Atlantic Ocean. We are watching a fledgling tropical wave known as Invest 94L trying to form into a Tropical Depression and take a shot at the name Don. It's a process that happens in real time. Often a wave that tests well on aptitude tests does not live up to it's potential much to the chagrin of tropical guidance counselors. So remember that today.

Official state of the tropics from the NHC

70% chances in the 5 day.

Area where it could form below.

Where we are now today.

X marks the spot.

Last night this is what it looked like when it became 94L

What it looks like this morning as 94L

12 hours or so later.

Hmnnn...

You can see why they have upped the odds to 70%

It's bulked up as I suggested a few days ago.

CV waves need to bulk up to battle with SAL

There is a semblance above of rotation coming together.

On the NRL site we slice and dice Invests ...

...shows us what's in those other satellite images.

convection, banding, pretty purple

Each view checks for something specific.

Why I wanted an Invest ....

...with designation you get NRL and a floater.

The floater is at the top of the page in motion.

Visible floater below:

And the models.

You always want to know what the models show...

3 models all for July 13th.

Euro, GFS and Canadian.

In that order.

My thoughts below.

My bottom line for this morning's post. What I find most interesting about the above 3 model images is that they all end up with the same final outcome and yet each has a vastly different story to tell getting there. It's like 3 cars set out from Miami to drive to let's say New York City.

One let's call it the Euro had a boring, slow ride stopping at mediocre but clean motels and nothing really happened until it got to the Florida Georgia line then decided to spend the night at a cute beach hotel somewhere. And it was okay but nothing really to buy a post card and write home about. 

The GFS car has the speakers blaring, the top down and they are singing along to every 1980s disco hit they remember with an occasional show tune thrown in along the way. They are sipping milk shakes and singing songs and having a blast. They are staying at hotels with room service the whole time.

The Canadian that is often set to party hardy forgets to pack the snacks and goes back for what it forgot after making a U turn across the meridian and then bulks up for it's long ride back up north.

Each of these tropical travelers have cousins soon to depart after a Safari in Africa where they do not kill the animals but just do photo shoots so no animals were injured for this tropical fantasy.

You can find these models in many places but the always excellent Levi Cowan from Tropical Tidbits has a link at the top left of Spaghetti Models. www.spaghettimodels.com

The links for those 3 images above are shown below:

GFS:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=atl&pkg=mslpaNorm

EURO:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=atl&pkg=mslpaNorm

Canadian:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=atl&pkg=mslpaNorm&runtime=2017070300&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=0

(check that dance out near Africa ... whoa)

It is important to remember these models update and change their minds often or fantasize for 12 hours about doing something totally different before often snapping back to the original plan. Have you never started a trip and insisted you would not stop to do something and the next thing you know you took veered off of I95 and traveled up 301 for a while and had the best time? Happens.

So the point here is that ALL 3 models show something off the SE coast but with varying different strengths and tracks. Much of the final outcome depends on trofs forming and an intensity that is currently unknown for what may be Don down the road. Don for now is unpredictable but definitely seems to be a player. Invest 94L learned from the fast moving waves before it and is slowing down like the proverbial turtle and in doing so it is basically wetting up the atmosphere for the waves to follow and there is one beautiful wave over Africa that will benefit from Invest 94L's slow movement punching holes in SAL and creating a better path for those later waves that are more in line with climo and that are showing up earlier and earlier this year than other years. August may be the new September.

Stay tuned. For now 94L is in the building stages of his long trip across the Tropical Atlantic and no track is set in stone. And the intensity is unknown. Ever decide to go rent a car for a vacation and you are sure you will get a compact car and you end up driving out with a beautiful mid size sedan with lots of extras? You are taking a trip for sure but you don't always know which car you will get until you get to the rental lot and they play Let's Make a Deal... 

Stay tuned. 

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter.

Follow me on Twitter for faster updates in real time.

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Y'all come back now real soon ya hear ;)