UPDATED SUNDAY 5PM - Jose. Maria. Lee. Triple Tropical Trouble... Odd Models, Deep Thoughts and Some Thoughts From South Florida ... Irma Recovery
Jose Cone at 5 PM
Maria 5 PM Cone.
Some Jose talk..
Discussion from NHC.
Important parts.
"meander or drift southward"
This is so typical Jose.
Impt note...
Widespread rains for Southern New England.
Long Island. NYC. NJ.
I said "RAIN"
Let me say this about Jose.
There has been much discussion.
On a Fujiwara dance with Maria.
Should that show up in the overnight models..
ie EURO again.
I'll go into great detail.
But I'm not sold on it.
I am sold on Jose liking to loop.
Interaction between the 2 of them.
So stay tuned...
While Lee has been downgraded...
....he's still very visible.
With regard to Maria.
Small, intense hurricane.
Capable of ramping up fast.
Much discussion online.
What will Jose's winds do...
Sadly Islands going to get slammed.
Maria tracing Irma's track.
Barbuda will get nailed again.
No one living there now but...
..truly incomprehensible
Cranky says it best.
Follow your local statements.
It's extremely important.
Go to NWS
Check your local area.
Check them again often.
I do mean NWS...
Not Uncle Bob on Facebook
Discussion from this morning still valid:
Let's start with Maria.
She's a very good place to start.
Now take a look at our tropical trio.
Triple Cones for Sunday
Problem forecasters have is a plenty.
It's like playing 3 level chess in the tropics.
Okay let's start at the beginning. The problems forecasters have currently is that there are three storms out in the Tropical Atlantic and they may at some point be interacting with each other. So now aside from the obvious array of intangibles they have to be fluid enough to figure out how each move one makes could influence the movement of the other. Not easy being a forecaster at the NHC this season as we zoom through the alphabet awaiting our next Major Hurricane. And did I mention there is one rolling of of Africa soon? Probably not but we are knee deep in indecision in the hurricane season. Yesterday the Euro, our best pitcher, through a curve ball into the mix and showed Jose and Maria doing a Fujiwara dance. The Tweet from below was 9 hours ago, but it shows where we were last night waiting for the next model run of the Euro. Predictably, it through the Fujiwara dance out, Jose edged closer to the coastline of the US. And, when I say coastline I mean those many multiple, metropolitan areas along the coast from NJ to Maine. Now everyone awaits the next Euro run.
Hopefully the above scenario..
..is off the menu.
I'm more focused on Maria.
But many are worried on Jose.
The models pull him North.
Odd track after that....
This is out world Sunday Morning.
Jose, Maria, Lee.
''
The above picture is from Larry Cosgrove.
Check him out on Facebook.
He's one of the best Mets I know.
I know a lot ...so that's huge.
Speaking of incredible meteorologists.
Jim juxtaposes his posts.
He's layers deep.
Maria is going to trace Irma's track for a bit.
It's not good news.
But I'm just being honest.
See the HWRF model.
That's just one model above.
But it's a close up so went with it.
Cone for Maria.
Updated at 11 AM and 5 PM.
Major Hurricane down the road.
There is so much uncertainty in the models when it comes down to the details. We know it's headed to Hispaniola. Will it track North or South or directly over Hispaniola? And amazingly the models don't show it falling apart after landfall. Much depends on the timing, the exact angle of approach as to how badly Hispaniola takes a hit and how much of a hit Hispaniola takes of Maria. I have the soundtrack from one of my favorite musicals West Side Story stuck in my head today. So yeah... I know that all of you in Florida want to know if Maria is coming here. It's logical to assume... that if she is retracing Irma's footsteps she has the same choreographer and after PR and Hispaniola she wants to perform in Miami but........it's too early to tell. And, if it makes you feel any better those up in the Carolinas may be worrying more than you.
To many this is a classic Carolina track as Maria is forecast to begin to turn off the coast of Florida. I know... (hanging my head, hard to type this) you've heard that before. It's just a dance as old as time. Somethings are forever and Florida flirting with the danger of a hurricane is high up on that list and we are only at the beginning of the story. Mike below gives a good quick, overall of the situation so check him out on Facebook as well. Though most everyone reading here is on his Facebook. My kids kept telling me all day yesterday "Mike was right" on many different things... "it wasn't a very wet storm" was the main comment with some kid adding "Mike did say that" and at this point if they were kids again I'd ask Mike to tell them to clean up their room because I'm pretty sure they'd listen to him before me..
As for me.. I'm in paradise.
I woke up this morning to the moon...
...just before sunrise.
The oak tree that took a beating.
And the moon peeking through.
A good set of graphics.
Shows the complexities.
Which scenario plays out.
Or does a third develop.
Good to follow on Twitter.
Great App.
The house here where my son lives came with shutters. Everyone has the same basic shutters and some of them are up currently and some have them down currently. It's a gamble some took to get sunshine into the house and watch the sunrise and set through their window over the lake. I guess we are all gamblers living in South Florida but usually we win and the hurricanes curve out to sea or and they are someone else's problem. As I said the other day how you choose to live and where you choose to live is the biggest decision you'll make in your life.
Being my kids several went down to the Florida Keys to Marathon with their brother-in-law who seems to have taken up residence working with FEMA. They helped out, they looked around, they watched the sunset. As my 2 year old grandson was too young he and my daughter ended up in the hotel where it's safe and there is electricity (I'm guessing generator but it's safe) and they sent these pictures which say it all. This is who we are and why we live in Florida or along the coast. AGAIN... there were over 25 years between Hurricane Betsy and Hurricane Andrew. This does not happen every day. But this year it seems to be happening every day or every other day this 2017 Hurricane Season. The links to the wind probabilities for Jose and Maria are below. Until your city is removed for more than one advisory from the wind probabilities watch the track of Jose and hope it stays out to sea. Spoiler alert places as far inland as Rocky Mt NC are on that list as is Nova Scotia... and a good part of the Atlantic Ocean.
Maria probabilities below. Bad for the Islands. Still offshore USA.
Battered but beautiful the sun always rises and the sun always sets and it does so with more beauty, passion and inspiration than any place I've ever been. I'm a beach girl. I love the mountains and if you want both move to Santa Barbara or somewhere along the California coast. In truth many who could moved to the Virgin Islands to live near both and this morning despite the tremendous damage the view is beautiful. Battered but beautiful still....
I'm going to update today if anything huge changes.
I will give a complete update tonight.
I got places to go...
...people to see.
On the road in South Florida.
Hoping Maria doesn't take this road.
Enjoying my family, friends and the view.
Bye for now Bobbi...
not really saying goodbye.
Keep reading on.
The letter below is from 1926.
It's a letter from after the 1926 Miami Hurricane.
The link translates it and explains it.
It's a dance as old as time.
Close up loops of Jose, Maria and Lee.
And the wide view.
Keep reading...
I'll update in length tonight.
Jose.
Still spinning.
Off the SE Coast.
Maria.
Beautiful spin.
Where she goes is the question.
Lee
Less impressive for now.
Some thoughts tonight while waiting for a late night model to run to see if this model run is more logical and has clarity vs more questions concerning the fate of Maria and Jose. Lee is still out there to so do not forget him. By the time I finish this post and publish it we will have more information. These are just random thoughts.
I'm in Walnut Creek tonight at my son's house visiting with my children and seeing my step son who just got back into the country after being overseas for the last year and on his way soon to Arizona. I've got a lot of family obligations as well as my own work I am trying to get done documenting damage and gathering some stories from people in the path of Irma. My gosh... was it just last week we were dealing with Irma? And now we have Jose still.....Lee and Maria... add in some possible interaction between 2 of them it's going to be a long week.
We stopped in Savannah on the way down and interviewed a few people who live out near the "marsh" or as some refer to it as low country near Tybee Island. The ground around her home is muddy and hard filled with the remnants of debris that the sea deposited on her door step. The ocean water came in, flooded the marsh and cut off her cottage that is normally over the marsh so that she just saw what seemed like ocean in all directions. And, then it receded leaving mud.. and memories.
Very little real damage in Savannah though several store owners insist that River Street was flooded a bit. It was a beautiful night, a steady breeze and in the back of my mind I couldn't shake the thought that the beautiful breeze was not a harbinger of good news down the road. That strong high, holding on steering well formed tropical systems this way.
Jacksonville is cleaning up. I didn't go downtown, but around other parts of town. Many people I spoke to told me they still did not have electric and some I know were staying at hotel rooms nearby hoping to clean up soon. They seemed in shock. So much talk on the landfall being in Miami or Key West or Miami or Key West no one said much about Jacksonville being set up for historic flooding. They knew there was the possibility of flooding but not that sort of flooding and more so flooding while Irma was far to the Southwest near Naples.
As you drive down the state you see blown out billboards and signs here and there that once advertised car dealerships and generally mild tree damage. And it seems difficult to understand why so many people lost power in areas with such light damage. An investigation of that needs to be done from my perspective. I spoke to many people who just "had no power" yet very little tree damage, no flooding but no power up and down the state. It's as if the grid collapsed but that doesn't seem to make sense for places very far from landfall and the track of Irma.
Once down in Broward County you begin to see real tree damage though buildings and signs are fine. The closer you get to the coast the traffic lights are out yet... near my son's house in West Broward there is a temporary stoplight on the ground with a cop trying to watch out for problems; reminded me of the months after Andrew.
My best friend's son lives here also (big surprise huh) so she spent Shabbos here this week and we spent a good part of the day together talking hurricanes (big surprise huh...) sitting out by the lake, watching the birds, ducks and iguanas scatter about doing their thing. We walked around wandering through tree debris talking how it reminded us of our lives Post Andrew. Some houses have shutters up, some have them down but life goes on. The palm trees look better off than the oak trees that crack and break in the wind and those odd ornamental trees subdivisions put in ...... go down fast before making it to even prime time. Wind funnels through the houses at the corners of the block (especially when there are lakes in between the homes) and the wind takes down whole trees whereas trees in the middle of the block stay or fall randomly with mostly branches breaking. Everyone is mostly in a good mood. Though I heard way too many people complain "Irma was nothing" and I just stare at them. I glare at them and tell myself do not argue with fools, let you become like them.
My youngest son, another son and a daughter who joined her husband (with the 2 year old) as he has has been down in the Keys with FEMA tonight and all of them just keep repeating to me on Whatsapp "it looks like a war zone" so apparently your attitude towards Irma depends on your location and your understanding that you got a "BRUSH" with a hurricane not THE hurricane and YES everyone lost power no matter if they had Tropical Storm force winds or Cat 1 winds. Understand, as a child growing up here no one lost power unless they had over 100 mph winds as a rule. Here and there an avocado tree takes out someone's electric but now days you can have a day of tropical storm force winds and lose electric. Density of population yes I know ... Or is it maintenance of the grid and the system. Good to know though those new poles FPL put in down in the Keys stood up to Irma Did I mention my 2 year old grandson was in Marathon today? Still trying to process that ... Yeah he watched the sunset with his mother while his father is working down there. Actually everyone except the son-in-law is back on the road to Miami tonight for a family birthday party. I have the greatest family, but not your normal family, but normal for our family.
In North Miami Beach it's trying to get the trees that are down off the roads that are still blocked in some areas; here they are hoping not to put up shutters again for Maria and in Marathon it's a different world and it's hard getting past Marathon to the Lower Keys right now as they are working their way down from Marathon and using the airport as a staging area it seems.
So may I remind you the hurricane season is not over. I said early in the season I wouldn't be surprised if we make it to the N storm. Now I'm wondering if we make it past Whitney. And, as I said Friday I believed it was possible for Maria to be a Major Hurricane.
Are the Carolinas on the menu next week for the Landfall Soup of the Day? Can we collectively pray that Florida is spared another landfall this year? It's been a crazy hurricane season. Always amazes me the attitudes people have... they were lucky, they were spared or they run around bitching and complaining the storm cost them money and time and blaming it for all the problems in their life when they live far from landfall and should be kissing the debris on the street thankful that all they lost was some food in the fridge, some trees and be grateful Irma did not hit South Florida with 185 mph winds. Others are very aware, not selfish or petty or shallow and happy to be out on a Saturday Night having a drink or listening to music or enjoying the tropical breeze. And, most of us know it's not over til it's over and it's not going to be over this year until after October I believe.
I'll update the rest of the day at the top when time permits. I'm on Twitter all day updating in real time so check me out there @bobbistorm on Twitter
Besos BobbiStorm
Labels: 2017, Carolinas, eastcoast, Florida, History, hurricane, Irma, Jose, lee, Maria, models, trouble, weather
posted by BobbiStorm @ 11:08 PM
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