Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Sunday, September 10, 2017

UPDATED 10 PM IRMA LANDFALL ..Right Sided IRMA. West side Drier ... Cone Doesn't Tell the Story....MARCO ISLAND, EVERGLADES CITY .. NAPLES ... MOVING N TMOBILE DOWN IN WEST BROWARD..LOOK WHERE IT MADE LANDFALL..Just W of Hurricane Donna.. Same Day in 1960.. Moving NORTH...NORTH not NNW.. Made the turn sooner rather than later.. New cone at 5 PM or 11 PM?

Dry side on the West.
Strongest weather to the EAST
Right sided Irma now.

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So let me explain something. For now let's trash the cone. IRMA made landfall... the high in the GOM that is pushing down on her left side is drying out the storm. Dry LEFT SIDE... Tampa not gonna get much... exciting but not the big landfall everyone feared. To the N and NE far in advance of Irma the energy transferred to the frontal boundary that was there and it is raining from Irma up through but not to be limited to Jax, St. Augustine, Melbourne, SSI GA... Savannah and into Charleston. To the NW where their CONE shows Irma moving is DRY AIR. Eventually remnants of the circulation will move towards Atlanta but it's not gonna be what NE FL is getting now while IRMA is over the central part of the state. 

In motion.

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Another view

The cone is great most of the time.
But at this point it's misleading.
It leads ppl in SC down the wrong road.
Ppl say going to Tennessee.
And it may in some way.
Atlanta will get some.
Wxr moving NE fast.

More like an extratropical storm now.
Odd but true
And look at Jose.

It's a problem.

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Watch IRMA.
Hasn't hit Tampa yet..
Yet weather East of Jax.

Will update at 11 PM.
Keep reading please.
Tired, annoyed and thankful.
Thankful it hit Cuba.
Thankful Miami didn't get a Cat 5.
Very upset about Marco Island.
Tomorrow video from Keys will be tragic.

Saying this short and getting off. The coverage from Harvey was NOT Hurricane Damage but flooding associated with Harvey. To cover the sexy city of Houston... famous in movies and TV shows they covered the immense flooding in the Bayou City... but the HURRICANE DAMAGE was down in Rockport Texas totally ignored.  Katrina ...same thing. Media totally ignored Waveland that was trashed and showed the levee failure. Yes.. it was news, it was tragic and compelling. Tomorrow when you wake up and see video from Lower Florida Keys, Key West, Miami, Marco Island you will see HURRICANE DAMAGE. All the damage from Hurricane and storm surge. You will see what a Major Hurricane can do at landfall and there may be more hurricanes to come this year. I would not be surprised to see another Major Hurricane. In fact I'll be surprised if we don't have one. Speaking of hurricanes ....Oh ......look at Jose...and one of the best looking waves I've seen in a long time coming off of Africa. The Hurricane Season is not over. If you live in a part of the country that still have power and has not been hit. Go shopping and buy LOTS of batteries and flash lights and battery operated radios and crayons for the kids. Trust me..

Jose in the Bahamas?

New Wave off of Africa.
Not off yet.

So a little tired of hearing how the storm is moving along the cone yadi yadi however you say that. Watch the storm.

Iconic Building in Miami.

That moment u realize ..
..u missed the Panthers Game.
They won.. I missed it.

Went out for a bit.
Dinner and a drink.
With the Miami kids up here.
While talking to the other kids online.

Been exhausting day.

Very guazy cloud cover.
Bit breezy. 

As I said earlier.
Storm merged with the front.
Energy spread out.
Far from the eye ....
... strong weather.

From Miami to St. Augustine.
While the eye was near Naples.

Just such a big circulation

You can't make out the State of Florida.

The water is going to come back fast.

Not much to say and been drinking white wine so don't want to go long and whine about how stupid this all is and how annoying it's been listening for days to young meteorologists some of which have NEVER BEEN IN HURRICANES explain models and tracks and which model wins this one. They don't get it. Unless you have been in one or far from one you are clueless it's NOT ACADEMIC. It's not a video game it is REAL at ground level. SPOILER ALERT small places exist in America so hurricanes don't just hit Miami or Tampa or NY or Houston but small towns. Katrina did NOT hit New Orleans it slammed WAVELAND MS... Naples is getting slammed. But people across the whole state are getting slammed with rain, flooding, tornadoes and high gusts that are way above the sustained winds they were forecast. No one gets that... you get sustained winds of 65 MPH but you get a band come through with gusts ... long gusts of 100 MPH.  Sustained winds in Naples of 95 MPH at the airport currently. The eye  ... or decayed center may go up NW into Georgia and Tennessee but the WEATHER is feeding into what was the front and it's moving NE .. look at weather East of Daytona. And that will continue up the coast into Georgia, Sea Islands, SC ... inland GA SC will be a LONG TIME before Floridians can drive home as debris will be across the highways and much will need to be cleaned up BEFORE the world's longest traffic jam will occur in a week or so. 

I'll give you a five day cone for when Floridians will be allowed to begin to drive home across North Florida... Georgia... South Carolina... good luck.

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Look at the REDS by the Cape.

NOT just about the EYE

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Model madness
if you really think a hurricane
is along a LINE.
Across the whole state now.

Landfall Marco Island
As I said here earlier.

Be clear.
Small homes.
All built to be ON WATERFRONT LOTS

Again posting this.
This is where Irma made landfall.
Just cruel. Really cruel storm.

Will see how this worked out.

 Image from Miami.
Under water from FRINGE of a Hurricane.
Imagine if this was DIRECT HIT.

Dismal Key.
Good name for landfall maybe.

In a matter of minutes water rising 
Naples Marco Island
10 to 15 FT above ground level.

Coming in between Naples and Everglades City.
Miami NEWS live

2 PM...

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Wobbling wildly

2:30 PM
Pictures thoughts.

Area below Marco Island.
Built so everyone has a waterfront lot.
Neil Frank said it was dangerous.
Some day a hurricane will hit.

Neil Frank knew Hurricanes
Another view below...

Low lying homes. 
Going to take a beating.

A comment from someone I respect.
As I said N movement.
Energizes front.
Jet venting.
Taking E side of the NHC Cone.

Note where the weather goes.
NOT the cone.
The weather.
N up to GA SC NC

Tired of hearing models
Watch IRMA at this point.
Watch the atmosphere on WV Loop.

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Watch the dry line.
Irma one with the front.
Taking over.
May turn NNW
But it's going N now.

Note below Raleigh NWS
They do THEIR weather.
I say it ALL the time.
YOUR NWS has YOUR back.
NHC is great...
Follow NWS in your city.
They are on Facebook.
They are on Twitter.
I know .. no cat pics.

Note wide view.
Front. Irma. Jose.
Maybe Lee.

Close up.
Moving N... Irma not.
Irma thinks:
"Fine I'll go to NC u take FL"

Again taking right side for now.

Note devil in details.
I googled Naples to Everglades City.
I didn't mean Naples Italy

That's better.

IRMA moving N..
Everglades City
Maybe just right of Naples.
Marco Island.
All in immediate path.
Then we worry on Tampa
And Orlando .. Ocala

Miami River :(
Can you imagine if Irma hit here?
Yeah... think on that a bit.

Why history repeats.
Nothing new under the sun..
or under clouds in September

Friends sidewalk on Miami Beach.
Trees going down..

Irma taking right side of NHC cone NOW

View from friends house in Miami Beach.

 I'll update at 2 PM

Be clear damage in Miami is the luck or the unlock of the draw. If your house was well maintained the ceiling roof may be good. If not... or if something hit it in a large gust... bad. I have friends with water leaking, sheds blowing down the street and massive ficus trees (think Tarzan) lying on their homes in Miami Dade County. If a tornado hit your block or a cell moving fast with rotation you may be in worse shape than a mile away. And this is far from over. A strong band in Irma's tail will set up and train rain over Miami for a day or two. Trust me on this unless they get really lucky. Models show that now. Understand Marco Island may FINALLY be tested and the whole area from Naples to Tampa may be as well. It could go E of there and come in further South closer to Everglades City.. a city on the edge of the Everglades. Miami is mostly without power, TMOBILE down in areas so... oh and cranes did fall over as predicted.

Lastly for the next hurricane PLEASE by HUGE packs of batteries. You spend more on Starbucks in a them. Store them. We are not even at peak of 2017 Hurricane Season. I've had ppl tell me they had batteries but didn't buy a lot and radio not working. Why not? It's the cheapest most important thing you can buy. I guess it's hard to remember how battery operated radios eat energy. 

Shop accordingly for the rest of the season. Update after 2 PM

Please read carefully.
Cone below.
My thoughts as well at bottom.
Takes the right side of the cone in short term.
It's going N now at 9 MPH.
This is not rocket science.
You don't need the EURO or GFS to see that.


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Irma at the base of the front.
That was stalled out.
Irma will energize that front.
Weather will move up N NNE NE 
They evacuated parts of GA for a reason.
Savannah - Tybee Island

Close up

This is ME not the NHC
I said last night lower keys.
I said when I woke up Cudjoe.
I'm telling you....
Irma is moving N..
From N it curves along N side of Trof.
It could go over the Lake.
Naples and Tampa will get some.
How much?
 Orlando gets what?
Naples could get the eye.
But could come in S of Naples.
Does it bend NNE or stay N
Who gets the eye?

Moves over warm water the whole way.
Florida Bay.
Can intensify..or stay the same.

I'm not saying Atlanta won't have a mess.
Stop focusing on metro areas.
This is a ground level drama.
Fluid in real time.

Water over Florida Bay..
..too hot to swim in for ppl from up north.
It's not weakening.
As it goes over the Everglades.
Brown ocean or water effect.

History repeats.
Always in some small different way.

I wrote this DAYS ago.
This is why I show analog storms.

Same Day.
Same place... just to the West.
1960 Donna
2017 Irma

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Small islands on SW coast.
Thousand Islands...
Getting slammed.

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Big Pine Key.
Note where the hoes are.. ground level.
I have friends who live there.
They are not there now but they live there.

Landfall in the Florida Keys; so many small Keys that the eye went over, places I love dearly. So hard to write and think and speaking to kids back home as well as kids who are far from home and everyone watching Irma. Understand these are some of the lowest keys and part of the Overseas Highway in some areas are FILL built through mangroves to connect Marathon with Key West. Marathon is a big Key think grocery stories like Publix and Kmart but small keys like Cudjoe and Big Coppit are not really that big. And the parts of the Overseas Highway that traverse that area are fill...and water has been over them now for hours as Irma moved slowly and parts of those road beds may need to be repaired before any traffic can roll down to Key West.

In the old days before the bridge was there they used ferries to get from the bigger keys to the next bigger keys. Then they put down fill and built a road bed (AFTER THE TRAIN was blown out to sea in 1935) and so now we have a highway. Views from that beautiful road are shown below. Note some houses are built high up, others low to the ground and those low to the ground will be at the least inundated or carried out to sea.

Going South...
See the homes at sea level?

Close up..

Look carefully at this street.
See the house built up high?
Now look at the house on the ground.
That house may be out to sea.
Or destroyed.

This is the story you are NOT seeing online.

I don't want to hear now about Tampa or Naples.
Hunker down. 
Be warned the storm may come to you.
 I believe its taking the RIGHT side of cone.
It's going N now.
This is not rocket science.

Stay tuned updating in real time.
Talking to friends on Miami Beach.
Trees down .. power out.
My kids have power but Tmobile went down.

Note to ppl here.
In the future..
Buy a burner Virgin Mobile Phone.
Activate it before the storm.
That way you have an extra phone service.

Hurricane Donna.
Same day. Same basic landfall.
Drop to the West.. 
That's why we study history.

Besos BobbbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

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At 9:49 AM, Blogger william duncan said...

So are you thinking a new cone this evening or tonight? I and my family is in Savannah(we stayed). Do you think we'll get more than the 40 mph winds here?

At 10:23 AM, Anonymous Chip Merlin said...

Great job, as usual. Really impressed with your courage because not many others are calling it as you have. Sorry our brothers and sisters are getting such a bad pounding in Naples. But, it would be worse if that eye wall was 10 miles farther west.

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