Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Thursday, September 07, 2017

Updated 11 PM. Irma 165 MPH Winds...Moving WNW at 16 MPH Takes on the Whole SE After Heading To FL...Currently Down Near Hispaniola Still Far Away. Do NOT Obsess on Model Runs... If You Are In The Cone ...act accordingly and FOLLOW THE NHC... They Do This For a Living.. Don't Trust Your Uncle Bob!!

Winds 165 MPH
WNW at 16 MPH
920 M.B.

She is forecast to be a Cat 5 again.
Note discussion below from NHC

175 in 12 hours.

If you wondered what it looks like... get a Hurricane Warning on your phone.
Looks like that.
Sort of like "TAG You're IT!"

Irma's big huge eye.

Look at that eye.
Look a the size of the grid below.
Again the track is there as well.

Basically more of the same.
Nothing new with track or intensity.
It is ODD that the track bends NW at the end.
Hurricanes rarely do that.
Then again Irma is a rare Cat 5 Hurricane.

I spent the night listening to Mike ramble online.
Facebook Live Discussion.
Some pictures he posted so you know..

 Awesome picture on Mike's Facebook Live.
Eye wall replacement cycle.
New eye HUGE.

Power outages predicted from Irma.
Far inland.. 
It will take a long time.. put the power grid back together again.

Irma going buzz saw again.
Buzz Feed can cover the Buzz Saw Cane.
Welcome to 2017

Waiting for the 11 PM to come out and listening to Mike on Facebook Live while talking to my son on Whatsaspp and looping loops of Irma watching her do eye wall replacement cycles. Mike made a comment earlier that it was quiet on Twitter. Most of the people who follow him are on line listening to him. I know because I recognize them. Years ago we talked all night on Message Boards and the truth is we like to talk and share thoughts and discuss the shape, size and movements of Irma. It's what we do especially when we are waiting for the 11 PM advisory to come out. Then we'd stay up until the 2 AM intermediate advisory came in the way we do now waiting for the EURO to finally finish running.

I've heard people who decided to ride out the storm sound nervous tonight. They should be. What should I tell them "yeah go for it" and yet I've done it and I know others that did it and usually it works out but trust me you get a new respect for the power of the wind. In a two story house on the 2nd floor the house would literally shake for a moment with a strong gust. You could feel the tremor moving through the house, especially when you're lying on the floor on blankets. We went upstairs because we were on a barrier island and afraid there would be flooding. Andrew was dry and compact and fast moving. Andrew moved at the last minute just enough South to spare downtown Miami with a dead on hit. So sometimes a bobble one way or other can make all the difference. But the wind screams more than they howl. It roars... then howls, then screams then howls. You only hear the scream of the wind when the winds are really higher. This storm will have lots of screaming winds. Trust me.

So I was quiet on Twitter most of the night. Though I tend to talk to people after the 11 PM. What is there to say? I can't tell you what will be other than most of Florida will deal with strong hurricane force winds unlike any other hurricane in history. I think the track will end up being a blend of the GFS and the EURO. Possibly the EURO on approach and then the GFS when it makes that turn. If it makes that turn though the Florida Keys anywhere from Marathon to Key Largo it will be a long time before anyone can travel down that beautiful road to paradise. 

If it hits Miami dead on downtown the beautiful, shiny, sparkly buildings in Brickell will be badly damaged and you can quote me on that. There is a massive amount of construction in downtown Miami right now, especially on the South side of the river and those buildings under construction will suffer greatly and debris will slam into the buildings being carried by 170 mph winds possibly and crash into the "hurricane proof" buildings and  don't tell me they are "hurricane proof" and well if they were for most hurricanes not this one. 

Might go through the Everglades and Homestead, could that happen again? Hard to imagine. 

So yeah, it's quiet because we are running fantasies of disaster in our heads that we don't want to share with you because it is what it is and an entire population cannot move, though it seems today half of Miami did travel North.  

Tomorrow the wording from the NHC and the NWS will be harsh, scary and they will be gut wrenchingly honest warning the public of the dangers they will encounter. They will make it clear that the area that gets the Cat 4 and 5 winds and (really talking more like a Pacific Typhoon than an Atlantic Hurricane... ) will not be habitable for weeks if not months. They will prepare you for the aftermath not just the arrival of the storm. It will move fast from nice pictures of Cantore and Seidel by the sunrise to serious warnings of what it may be like after the hurricane. 

Well, one thing I can say about Mike... he may ramble more than me but I wouldn't bet on that one. Oddly, we are a lot a like. Things bouncing around in our minds and a need to communicate. I don't want to communicate terror and fear but things that can help you.

Treat ALL power lines as live even though they may not be. Keep your phones plugged in fully charged. I read somewhere small children who have bike helmets should wear them during the storm even while sleeping; not a bad idea. Keep towels, blankets nearby. Put a mattress on a floor and gather together there with another one to hide behind if the wind gets into your house. Move to the bathroom.  You fill the bathtub up with water to use it for flushing not drinking. You get a bucket and fill it with tub water and flush your toilet. Keep a small first aid kit nearby in case something happens you have the supplies nearby. Promise the kids something fun after the storm. Maybe a trip to Grandma's house somewhere so they can go to school and have normal because their school won't open for 3 weeks if they are lucky. No don't tell them that; if the school doesn't get damaged they might be disappointed. 

Honestly, every storm is different from other storms. I saw a picture of my grandson who is 13 in Miami reading a site on his iPad from TWC that was educating children and young teens what a hurricane is like and what to expect. Impressive. Smart idea. 

So............yeah. Thanks for listening to me ramble tonight. I'll update fresh in the morning. Keep reading if you have not done so.  And oh if you are afraid your house is not strong enough and it doesn't have shutters... GO TO A SHELTER. I don't know why some people are stubborn on they think they are too good to go a shelter?  Kids have things going on to occupy their mind rather than being alone in a house that is falling apart. I don't get it... the attitude as if they are too good to go a shelter or something. Trust me there is safety in numbers.  Sweet Tropical Dreams. Bobbistorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter
Previous advisory below.
You can compare and contrast.

175 MPH 
 WNW at 16 MPH

The Navy Map is below.
It tends to be more conservative and go wider.

You see the round circles.
That is where the hurricane will most likely be.
That map is as good as it gets.
Small circle shows hurricane force winds.
Larger part of the circle Tropical Storm winds.

An example map to use is this one.
Sort of a blend of the NHC and NRL
 He does close in when the storm is closer.

It's just a map of the NHC .. NRL maps.
Well done.

Irma is currently on the North Coast of Hispaniola and the Cuban Government has issued Hurricane Warnings for areas that Irma may impact. Take that for what you want and it was a good move. Everyone looks at details and details often can make you nuts. There is so many information out there and everyone sees something. You know that Jimmy Buffet song "everyone has a cousin in Miami" seems in Miami every family has a meteorologist in the family who is sure which model is better. Spoiler alert some families have two or three. It's all shooting the breeze in the end the Hurricane will do what it does and the NHC adjusts their cone in real time. 

Now is NOT the time to get on the road and panic. The highways are packed, there is a lack of gas and hotels are booked solid. Hunker down and stay in a house that is concrete and that has shutters or go to a Public Shelter. That simple. Oh and pray and don't panic. 

The Euro is considered the "King" but often the GFS sees things others didn't see. GFS sticking to it's Eastern side of the cone and the Euro is sticking to it's West side of the cone. So the NHC draws the cone encompassing both extremes that their 2 favorite models. It's that basic. And every other meteorologist chooses a side and they insist it's taking the right side of the cone, the left side of the cone, the right side of the cone until people get scared, nervous and do not know what to believe. There is so much anxiety before a hurricane. What you do is listen to the NHC. They draw a cone. And, they tell you that it can be ANYWHERE inside that cone and NOT to look at the middle of the cone. What they should be telling people is to STOP WORRYING ON THE MODELS and let them do their job. If they are wrong, they adjust every six hours. And it's a mute point as you are in Miami (an example) and you have a Hurricane Watch. WATCH THE HURRICANE... prepare and evacuate if you are told from low lying areas. It's that simple.

Good graphic below.
2017 busy season.
Other seasons have had 3 hurricanes too.

Oh Jose is now a Major Hurricane.
But not going to talk on him now.

Forecast for rain amps up on the 5th day.
Across most the Southeast.

I'm posting randomly a bunch of different discussions for you to see how similar and different they are... from cities that could be affected by Irma. Miami is at the top obviously. The reason is to show you two things... one is the NWS does a good job for your area days ahead and they all are mostly similar. There's a hurricane, a once in a life time hurricane that has stayed Major Category FIVE for days and it's headed up towards Florida and then move into the Southeast. Details to follow. It's still down on the coast of Hispaniola. One thing to note it skimmed the North coast of PR, it's skimming the North coast of Cuba and we hope and pray it will skim the coast of South Florida. But it might not, so all of Florida has to be careful. Personally I'd draw a line from Marathon (I've said that before) up to West Palm Beach as a possible landfall.

Don't obsess on model runs, be realistic that you will most likely get hurricane force winds of some kind in Florida. You cannot runaway from this storm unless you flew out yesterday. So deal with it calmly, logically and make sure you have a BATTERY OPERATED RADIO WITH THE PROPER BATTERIES cause I know several people who evacuated and obviously do NOT read my blog and did not take a battery radio with them. That's your LIFE LINE to the world when the power goes out. Weather Radio is GOOD... but the regular radio will tell you NEWS you need to have to stay informed on the storm when sitting in the dark listening to the wind howl and wondering what that was that just banged into your hurricane shutters. Hopefully a flying iguana not your car.....

I know being Millenials or aging baby boomers you need to watch a youtube video or a Buzz Feed article so I am including this one to show you how to use and unbox your battery operated radio.

NWS information below.
Keep reading or just scroll ;)
Humor me......

Then Melbourne up the FL coast.

 Charleston, SC

 Wilmington NC
Usually in the eye...
..seems spared for now.
That could change.

I'll update in a little while links and more information. Stay tuned. I'll be back.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

PS BATTERY POWERED RADIO with lots of batteries.

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