Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Monday, September 11, 2017

Updated 9 PM.. After Irma.Search What To Think About Jose, Rescue Going On in FL Keys, Marco Island, Naples and Recovery Begins. Jose Looping.. Does Jose Threaten Land?

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Let's talk Jose.

First of all Jose is trapped under a ridge of high pressure. Rather than sit, stalled out he is looping. Storms such as this are often referred to as "loopers" as they get trapped and loop and wait for a doorway to move again where they can breathe, pick up speed and stay alive. The truth is the goal of most low pressure systems once they form into storms is to stay alive. No joke, I am not kidding. They avoid high pressure like the plague and they grab any opportunity to move in a direction away from high pressure preferably gaining latitude. Why? Because tropical systems exist to move energy from the equator to the poles; they have one job. Jose is biding his time and while he does models shoot out all sorts of possible tracks and media outlets try writing headlines to grab more attention. 

Doesn't get much easier than this to show in one image. Dark BLUE above ..... Jose to the East of Florida and Jose trapped there unable to move North. It's like Jose hit a wall; that wasn't meant as a joke but sure came out that way. I'm going to put this site in motion so you can remember it's fluid and evolving. I have a son who watches the tropics from Seatlle. Miami boy gone West. Okay actually he was born in LA so he worked his way back to the West Coast. He told me about a week ago when Jose formed it would get under a ridge and threaten Outer Banks or maybe up the coast. Many feel it could be a threat to Florida, though I think that might be too far to the South but after Irma dipped WSW so long I'm not ruling anything out.

Note the following 2 discussions below.
NWS discussion.

Wilmington NC NWS

Cape May, NJ NWS

Note neither are 100% sure.
Neither am I.
But I'll become more sure soon.

Rob from Crown Weather Below.
He's a pay for service.
I can post tidbits below.
Shows his concern.
And he ...we are now watching Jose.

Irma has moved North today.

There was severe historic flooding in Jacksonville, FL today as the storm surge, rain and aspects of Irma combined to create record high levels on the St. John's river flooding neighborhoods I'm used to and stay in often when visiting there. We've talked often on possibly down the road relocating there. Orange Park, Mandarin (a Chabad House there is the draw...) had some flooding. Downtown by the river where the river overflowed it's banks... it flowed through the downtown area. Amazingly mirroring images from Miami in the Brickell section earlier this week. Irma has had a few strong signatures. One was death, the second destruction. Later today her rains and weaker winds went North into Georgia taking out my friend's electric in Augusta and taking down many large hardwood trees that do not bend like oak trees do. A woman in Georgia was killed when a tree (probably pine) crashed through her house onto her. I often say I'd rather be in a tropical system in Miami than up in Georgia where pines come crashing down. From a purely academic viewpoint I've always wanted to see what Raleigh was like in a real hurricane before moving on. I also want to see an Ice Storm. 

Cudjoe Key
After Irma

I've never understood academics who live in far away places studying hurricanes. I need to see it up close, feel it, taste it and understand what it is really like in person. I've heard stories on Ice Storms, I want to see for myself. Then I'll move ;)  Seriously, I'm tired.

We can deal with Jose tomorrow and I promise you I will go into more detail, discussing different models, thoughts and what I see from watching satellite imagery combining it with my knowledge of hurricane history and weather history in general. Again days ago.. maybe a week ago I showed the chart for Hurricane Donna as a possible analog storm for Irma should she take the Southern track and she did even if it meant moving WSW for days until she was positioned to come in further South than early discussion showed she would. Someone send Cuba a thank you call for taking a bite out of her. 

Currently watching WSVN all day.
Channel 7 in Miami.

A tidbit below from that article.
Flipped a plane in Broward.
Trees down everywhere.
Fire in house in Hollywood.
(not far from my son's house)
A mess.

My sons in Walnut Creek got the tree off that was blocking the garage and drove about checking on siblings and their uncle. They also went to Jerusalem Pizza in NMB that got their ovens fired up. My son's apartment in Aventura is okay and even has power though the lobby of the building did have water in it at some point. When he gets back from NC... Lord knows how long that will be... he should be happy to be home. My daughter's apartment is fine and again when she gets home she'll be high and dry and happy to end her babycation in NC this week. Well, they seem to be having fun but they are tired. My other son has a place in Coconut Grove that probably doesn't have power and as he sells Real Estate he won't be busy for a while so he's on vacation with his son.  Everywhere you go in NC this week you see Florida license plates and meet fellow Floridians visiting relatives waiting to go home. Seems everyone has a cousin in Raleigh.

Again... back in May 2017.
I posted a blog on possible tracks.
2017 Season.
General possible tracks.
Jim Williams nailed it.
See the first one below.
Land interaction was a worry.
We were all worried.
Now It seems you're worried.

What about Irma you wonder?

Her energy spread out he said above..
Watch the loop below.

Now you understand....

Irma and Jose.

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More tomorrow on Jose.
Oh and tomorrow and tonight.
I'm getting moisture from Irma.
Light winds.

Continue reading...
I'l update tomorrow late in the morning.
After I get hard data on the Florida Keys.
And more thoughts on sneaky Jose.

Sweet tropical dreams,
@bobbistorm on Twitter

Thanks for your patience

* * *

Flooding St. Johns River.

Flooding is the story today.
The big story is across Florida.
They are just getting into the Keys to see now.

Irma. Taking up residence across SE.

A lesson in gardening.
Broward County.

Plant Palms.

Jax damage from our Dabuh.

Beautiful baby blue lawn chairs ;)


More extratropical like now.

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Irma's weather is moving N and NE.
The center is swirling far removed from rain.
So let's not talk on the Cone.

The "CONE" at this point is irrelevant.
Let the NHC go track the remnant low.
Irma is mostly extratropical currently.
Spread out all over.
Highest winds far from the center.

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Wide View...
..will discuss Jose tonight.

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One explanation on flooding pics in Jacksonville.
In SFL ground is POROUS.
Rains and water goes through coral rock ....
JAX is like GA .. RED CLAY.
Ground less porous.
More of a flood threat for now.
But the river is rising... 
..some storm surge.

In Miami water gone.
In Jax may take longer.
In GA the same.
GA getting much rain.

So since I am ignoring the NHC cone.
Let's look at the loop below.
Note moisture from Irma..
mixes w fronts moves NE.

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Goes North.. Spreads out W and E
Then pushes up into Ohio Valley.
Inland flooding impacts could arise.

Watching the WV loop you see Irma lifting.
You see Jose waiting, watching.

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To be honest I'm not sure where to begin. So much going through my mind, exhausted from following Irma for weeks after Harvey and worried my children in South Florida would survive the storm. I'm pretty tough; I can even be stoic and pragmatic. But, when the lives of your kids, grandkids, best friends and the city itself you love is at danger from a 185 MPH Hurricane it takes a bite out of you. About 3 days before landfall it looked bad for Miami, I woke up that morning afraid to look at my phone... with a sense of dread in the pit of my stomach. I now remember what that feels like; when Andrew was barreling towards Miami as a Category 5 Hurricane I had that same feeling in my stomach. Then the track pulled left... west towards the middle of the State and then the track pulled far left (too far) showing the West Coast with a possible landfall up near Tampa or just offshore. I know it's a cone but spoiler alert my friends at NHC everyone looks at the center of the cone. Many Floridians have learned to trust the Cone about 2 days before landfall... 36 hours before better than others. Just telling you what everyone tells me.

In truth the cone from 2 days before landfall was a good cone. In truth never pay attention to the exact movement of the cone. If you live in Miami and there is a hurricane to the South of you somewhere you watch the Hurricane. And, I mean South or SW or SE until it's WAY North of your latitude you don't stop watching the hurricane. Betsy was on her way to Carolinas or Jax and turned back, looped and pulled SW and then went West into the Florida Keys. Speaking of loopers, we will discuss Jose another day. For now he is not threatening the US and in a day or so the track may be more reliable.

So personally the kids who evacuated are here still in a nearby hotel keeping my grandson Benjamin busy. My daughter in law is in NY with my daughter and Charlotte is playing with her cousin Ber. My kids in Broward County all kept power. My brother in North Miami Beach lost power. They all lost cellphone service at some point. Water is I believe drinkable but normally they drink Spring Water bottled anyway. Miami and Broward water tends to taste strong of chlorine... My friends in NMB have no power and the High is supposed to be 87 degrees today though it is breezy. It won't stay "breezy" for long and temps go up all week into high 80s and lots of luck getting power back on :(

As for North Miami Beach for some reason (poor maintenance perhaps?) the bridge on 15th Avenue at the end of the canal that EVERYONE uses is damaged and people are being asked NOT to use it. Hate to see NMB in a Cat 3 or 4 hurricane.  I went to a local Key West paper to get some info it showed me bulldozers in NMB trying to remove debris from trees down.

And the grim pictures from the Florida Keys will soon come in and I can promise you that you will see what damage from a Major Hurricane is.. vs levee failure or bayou flooding. Ground Zero, Major Hurricane Damage and when the pictures come in from Marco Island it's going to be very sad, depressing and the loss of life total is going to go higher than most expect. They are bringing in portable morgues to the Florida Keys... they know what they are expecting. Power crews are South Bound headed into Florida trying to figure out where to begin. There is flooding from the river in Jax for now and tornado warnings going off as I type this for South Carolina. It's very gray in Raleigh from the high clouds aloft out ahead of Irma. White, milky white clouds.. but thankfully cool temperatures. My son in law is in South Carolina soutbound with a group of volunteers and FEMA crews headed into Florida. Disasters can bring out the good in people. Another son in law manages high end sneaker stores in South Florida. A friend's store was hit in Sunrise by looters who broke the window (far from the storm) ran in and started grabbing boxes of sneakers. Mind boggling and hard to understand that the police have to deal with this when the city made it through the hurricane. Looting is stealing, when the a city is going under water and someone runs into a damaged store about to go under rising water to grab food it's wrong but you can understand the rational. This was not spoiled milk, it's breaking and entering far from the real storm knowing the police are busy.

Had the WSVN news crew not had driven by as they were running out with boxes of shoes they may not have been arrested. As always life is about timing. Thanks.

Hurricanes bring out the good in people... they bring out the bad. I hope and pray the looting stays at a minimum.

Schools, colleges all closed "INDEFINITELY" and more information will come in soon.

And more information on the Lower Keys and Marco Island will come in soon...

And there are more hurricanes out there this season I promise you. It's not over cause you are tired and have had enough. I seriously hope the NHC finds a way FAST to deal with systems where the weather goes one place and the low pressure center somewhere else. It's happened before; after Hurricane Ireme in 1999 they started using graphic for "weather mass" but then they dropped it. Why is this such a problem?  My kids stayed another day but many I know are now stuck in SEVERE STORMS with TREES falling onto highways (small ones and big roads) and there is flooding in JAX but they all woke up in their hotel rooms in NC and beyond, saw the cone went NW and got in their cars to race back to Florida to check on their homes. So aside from the traffic... it's complicated by the strong weather. Many from Boca would NEVER had seen weather this bad but now they are on I95 Southbound stuck in traffic with tornado warnings. Thanks... fix the cone. I've heard Rick Knabb on TWC say over and over "I hate this cone" so fix it... it's time. In a fluid world where people can get faster data on an APP one thing I learned sadly from Irma was FEW people go to the NHC site for info they just go to see the cone... or they get it shared on Facebook with editorial comments from Uncle Bob and Aunt Martha.

And EVERYONE has said to me... STOP SHOWING ALL THE MODELS and GIVE US A FORECAST with regard to local TV news. If they want to see the models they go online. When they put on their nightly news (many still do) they want to hear a FORECAST not model discussion that sounds confusing and ... confuses them.

Mike is the King of Spaghetti Models and almost everyone I saw was on his site looking for information. He did a great job and constantly updates. In a visual snapchat world... Pinterest world.. people want images and hard facts fast. Don't show a cone that pulls NW when all the WEATHER is going NE. Fix it. Nuff said.

I will update AT the bottom today with NEWS form Keys... Jax.. Naples...

A coast guard helicopter is on it's way to Keys.. Key West to get news.

Thanks for reading my long discussion today.

Again EACH bridge in the Florida Keys will need to be INSPECTED CAREFULLY and fixed and inspected and much of the fill was washed away and took chunks of the highway with it. Expect it take a long time before it's repaired. It will take a long time before the power grid is rebuilt as per FPL press releases. Hunker down and know it's going to be a long time. And then it will be as if it didn't happen after a few years with no landfalls. People remember, but they move on. Life goes on.

Check back often.
Besos Bobbistorm DONATE. I never ask for money for my blog but I do ask for you to give charity to those in need.

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