Irma Death Toll Rises from Georgia to the Islands. Recovery and Thoughts on Jose. From Cajun Navy to Chabad Centers We Are One Human Nation. Contribute What You Can ...Where You Can as Many Stores Will Add What You Donate to Charity. Hurricane Season NOT Over. Will Ophelia or Phillipe or Rina Come To Your Town in October?

Today in the Tropics.

Loops and maps on top.

Thoughts and videos at the bottom.

Jose looping below.

Irma is still causing problems in the SE

That purple circle is bad weather.

Rain, wind.

NOT much rain.

But in the land of pine trees...

..they come down fast.

5 Day Rainfall 

Ha check out Canada..

Tropical moisture still on the move.

Note how many areas could show development.

Not showing the cone today.

Weather is everywhere in the SE.

Nuff said.

An image I found online.

Before and after.

Pieced it together.

Chaser video and Google Maps.

Why people live there?

Paradise most days.

Beautiful.

A friend of mine in Augusta posted this today.

Her power is out.

She's barely posting.

She wanted to get this message out.

Well I'll add... down the road.

Thoughts and videos below.

Jose....You gonna loop around out there forever? Where you gonna go? Do you go from being a looper to an ocean spinner? Most of America is praying you take the easy way out and go out to sea. Time will tell. With long term loopers you just got to sit em out patiently and watch what upper level patterns evolve while they are doing loops in the Atlantic. Let me say this about that.........  way better Jose is looping out in the Atlantic than moving over South Florida while they are trying to clean up. The last thing you need is even a strong thunderstorm that slams parts of your home that were weakened from the Hurricane. Often that set up is like the straw that breaks the camel's back. My friend's house during Andrew held up pretty well on Miami Beach, but the East facing window broke weeks later after an extremely strong, typical... South Florida thunder storm. See that is the problem, we don't go back to a quiet weather pattern.

It's summertime in Florida even though they be selling Pumpkin Spice Lattes at Starbucks. Hot, humid and the only time the air moves is when a big thunderstorm is coming in. Cooler days are far away... think November. When Hurricane Wilma hit South Florida it was getting into late October when a few cool fronts blow through. Wilma caught one of those early cold fronts and after Wilma it was way cooler and more comfortable than after Andrew in late August. And, that set up that brought Wilma to South Florida may bring Ophelia, Phillipe or Rina later this year. Yes, I mean that and no that is NOT hype or dramatic hyperbole. That's life in the tropics during Hurricane Season. Kind of like how you feel up north in February when you just want the snow storms to end and the cold weather to go away. You just want to stop having to wear boots, coats and you just want to put on your flip flops and feel sunshine

Typical October Hurricane Track

And that's something I want to talk about here. Stop asking why people live in Miami or Naples or the Florida Keys. We are not stupid, we know who we are and how we like to live and are are actually quite smart. We figure the odds and know that once every few years (or every twenty if you get lucky) a hurricane blows through. You clean up and life goes on. And, often you get very lucky and don't see a Major Hurricane for fifty or sixty years; that's pretty much a lifetime of living in paradise. A few months of putting life back together is better than living 40 or 50 years in places that do not resonate with you. There are towns far from Oklahoma that have gotten bad tornadoes and the whole mid section of the country is prone to heavy floods in the Springtime. I had a friend when I lived in LA who grew up in Ohio with her family home by the river. She told me what life was like on the river and how often it came up over the banks and flooded their home. Being a tropical girl used to when the wind howls in September the idea of the river coming up and running into your house seemed crazy. She smiled and said "well the river does go down you know and then you clean up" and I'll add life goes on. I can't think of too many places in this great and beautiful nation that could not have some sort of natural disaster. So rather than bitch and complain about "crazy people that live down there by the water" reach into your pocket and know but for the grace of God that too could be you. Gas explosions that take out whole blocks, 100 hundred year flash floods in places like Ellicot City where I'm sure many there felt safer than living down on the coast. https://www.weather.gov/lwx/EllicottCityFlood2016

And everyone in Florida isn't rich or famous like the people you see on TV shows. We actually have quite a bit of simple, good folk who live in small towns and never get to Miami or Naples. They live down by the water, they fish and it's actually quite Southern. You don't get that vibe on South Beach but trust me it's about as Southern and Country as it gets. Places up the coast North of Tampa and NW of Orlando that live in rural towns. Remember that classic movie Doc Hollywood was filmed in Micanopy Florida. You might want to check it out sometimes, it's a beautiful place; actually quite artsy and picturesque. Sometimes the wind blows...

And Irma found some of those places you aren't hearing about in Southwest Florida. Yes it hit Marco Island and it grabbed the headlines. Try checking out places like Everglades City that's a paradise for people who like to get away from the cement jungle they feel Miami is and who like to fish and be close to nature. Everglades City isn't for everyone, but for those who love it ... it is everything they love.  Yes Jacksonville and Charleston get all the media, so I'm trying to remind you of the scope of this ongoing disaster known as the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season. It's not over but it should help the rest of you not yet affected to properly prepare and buy more than 1 pack of AA batteries for your radio and storing some extra gas or cash somewhere safe in case you need it.

This video is before Irma and this story is about what it was like there during Hurricane Irma. 

Irma made landfall above.

Around the red circle.

Another blog explains why...

...they be so different than the other Keys.

http://www.tampabay.com/news/weather/hurricanes/everglades-city-cut-off-by-flooding/2337032

I found this last night and it's a great over view of the Lower Keys where Hurricane Irma made landfall. It shows the actual Keys, maps of the Islands and lifestyle people buy into when they retire to a piece of paradise they can afford. Life there may sound pricey to some of you but it was one of the only affordable places to live down near Key West where people live in one room studios in old Conch homes not fixed up similar to how many live on a sailboat... meaning really simple keeping only what you need but enjoying the view and even those one room studios are a fortune. So many live down on some of the nearby Keys where life can be a mix of rugged frontier sort of life and a well built, beautiful home built to retire and live out your golden years in a place you always dreamed of living. Fisherman, service staff such as waitresses and chefs and school teachers don't live in Key West if they can't afford it and they commute up from places like Cudjoe or Ramrod Key. Note the videos and yes some of those places look like location shots for a movie based on a Carl Hiaasen novel.



I worry on how the school held up and note if you watched til the end the older kids go to Key West High School up the road. Then there's a video of Ramrod Key below.



Below is a video posted online from Cudjoe Key and it sure looks like Cudjoe to me.



No life in paradise isn't for everyone. But then life in Atlanta isn't for everyone and outside Atlanta today 3 people died in Georgia from falling pines crashing through their homes or Irma related accidents. Who knows how high the total will be by the time all of the missing are found. And, when I talk on a death toll I am talking even up in Sandy Springs, Georgia where people feel they are safe from hurricanes and heavy snow storms. And speaking of SANDY this season isn't over so those of you living up in Queens dreaming of what it must be like to live down in the Keys if only you had the money or the guts to pick up and relocate... Ophelia or Rina may find you later in the Hurricane Season.

We are all in this today. To steal a saying from my second or third home Key West we are "one human family" so reach into your pocket and whether you give a dollar at Belk when you buy those cute new winter boots or at Kroger just do it. All those dollars add up and if you have more then give more. Some of that money one day could come back to you as Kharma is like that. What you give at some point you get back but we don't do it wanting anything back we do it to be the change in the world we want to see..  to make a difference.

Red Cross is a great organization that is prepared to jump into action being well trained and seemingly everywhere when we need them. I'm associated with the Chabad movement that opened up 25 of their Chabad Centers across South Florida inviting people in their community without power to come, use whatever power they had and many made BBQs I'm guessing with meat they had stored in their freezers. I know there are many great organizations doing the same thing and if you know some Tweet them or put your links on Facebook. This is who I am so I know what my friends are doing to help others who are in need in the most organic way they can; sharing their power ( generator ) and telling people to come for coffee, charge their phones, talk and maybe have some BBQ.

This is not just a news story from my world, some of those people who operate these centers are my personal friends. 

http://collive.com/show_news.rtx?id=47276&alias=25-florida-chabads-open-doors

So be it the Cajun Navy in Harvey or Chabad in South Florida or your own Catholic Church or a mission you know that is reliable and trustworthy when asked give whether it's a $1 at Kroger or $5 at Belk, just do it please.

https://jewishgatorcom.clhosting.org/templates/section_cdo/aid/3782240

I'll say this about fake news. Every time you see that video on Facebook that's been around for 10 years but now posted again everywhere that shows a gator walking through some place in Florida NOT after Irma but it is tagged as Irma put a quarter in a jar and give the money to UF Chabad the home of the Gator Nation for many. They are awesome. http://www.jewishgator.com/

I'll update later today with more information on Jose. It's out there looping, let's not wake up a sleeping dog right now. Watch the coverage on TWC and give what you can and remember the Hurricane Season is not over but you can start preparing now if you have not already. As for Irma she has died out finally but her rain remains and her devastation is just being discovered. It's raining as I read this in Raleigh, a gray steady rain and I can see the tops of pine trees swaying a bit. See in Carolina I get tropical weather and an occasionally snow shows up. The rain formed in Africa and moved across the Atlantic Ocean, though the Caribbean and up through Florida to rain on my grass this morning. Kind of amazing and why we are often so amazed at hurricanes spinning across the satellite loops and more often than not they swim out to sea. Irma did not and now we clean up. My kids I believe are headed back to rejoin the rest of the family in South Florida today. My son-in-law just arrived with many first responders who drove down in a convoy with Fema trucks. From the Cajun Nation to my Satmar son-in-law Yoely married to his Chabad wife we should all be one human nation doing what we can to help each other through tragedy. 

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Updated 9 PM.. After Irma.Search What To Think About Jose, Rescue Going On in FL Keys, Marco Island, Naples and Recovery Begins. Jose Looping.. Does Jose Threaten Land?

Let's talk Jose.

First of all Jose is trapped under a ridge of high pressure. Rather than sit, stalled out he is looping. Storms such as this are often referred to as "loopers" as they get trapped and loop and wait for a doorway to move again where they can breathe, pick up speed and stay alive. The truth is the goal of most low pressure systems once they form into storms is to stay alive. No joke, I am not kidding. They avoid high pressure like the plague and they grab any opportunity to move in a direction away from high pressure preferably gaining latitude. Why? Because tropical systems exist to move energy from the equator to the poles; they have one job. Jose is biding his time and while he does models shoot out all sorts of possible tracks and media outlets try writing headlines to grab more attention. 

Doesn't get much easier than this to show in one image. Dark BLUE above ..... Jose to the East of Florida and Jose trapped there unable to move North. It's like Jose hit a wall; that wasn't meant as a joke but sure came out that way. I'm going to put this site in motion so you can remember it's fluid and evolving. I have a son who watches the tropics from Seatlle. Miami boy gone West. Okay actually he was born in LA so he worked his way back to the West Coast. He told me about a week ago when Jose formed it would get under a ridge and threaten Outer Banks or maybe up the coast. Many feel it could be a threat to Florida, though I think that might be too far to the South but after Irma dipped WSW so long I'm not ruling anything out.

Note the following 2 discussions below.

NWS discussion.

Wilmington NC NWS

Cape May, NJ NWS

Note neither are 100% sure.

Neither am I.

But I'll become more sure soon.

Rob from Crown Weather Below.

He's a pay for service.

I can post tidbits below.

Shows his concern.

And he ...we are now watching Jose.

Irma has moved North today.

There was severe historic flooding in Jacksonville, FL today as the storm surge, rain and aspects of Irma combined to create record high levels on the St. John's river flooding neighborhoods I'm used to and stay in often when visiting there. We've talked often on possibly down the road relocating there. Orange Park, Mandarin (a Chabad House there is the draw...) had some flooding. Downtown by the river where the river overflowed it's banks... it flowed through the downtown area. Amazingly mirroring images from Miami in the Brickell section earlier this week. Irma has had a few strong signatures. One was death, the second destruction. Later today her rains and weaker winds went North into Georgia taking out my friend's electric in Augusta and taking down many large hardwood trees that do not bend like oak trees do. A woman in Georgia was killed when a tree (probably pine) crashed through her house onto her. I often say I'd rather be in a tropical system in Miami than up in Georgia where pines come crashing down. From a purely academic viewpoint I've always wanted to see what Raleigh was like in a real hurricane before moving on. I also want to see an Ice Storm. 

Cudjoe Key

After Irma

I've never understood academics who live in far away places studying hurricanes. I need to see it up close, feel it, taste it and understand what it is really like in person. I've heard stories on Ice Storms, I want to see for myself. Then I'll move ;)  Seriously, I'm tired.

We can deal with Jose tomorrow and I promise you I will go into more detail, discussing different models, thoughts and what I see from watching satellite imagery combining it with my knowledge of hurricane history and weather history in general. Again days ago.. maybe a week ago I showed the chart for Hurricane Donna as a possible analog storm for Irma should she take the Southern track and she did even if it meant moving WSW for days until she was positioned to come in further South than early discussion showed she would. Someone send Cuba a thank you call for taking a bite out of her. 

Currently watching WSVN all day.

Channel 7 in Miami.

http://wsvn.com/news/local/clean-up-efforts-begin-in-broward-after-hurricane-irma/

A tidbit below from that article.

Flipped a plane in Broward.

Trees down everywhere.

Fire in house in Hollywood.

(not far from my son's house)

A mess.

My sons in Walnut Creek got the tree off that was blocking the garage and drove about checking on siblings and their uncle. They also went to Jerusalem Pizza in NMB that got their ovens fired up. My son's apartment in Aventura is okay and even has power though the lobby of the building did have water in it at some point. When he gets back from NC... Lord knows how long that will be... he should be happy to be home. My daughter's apartment is fine and again when she gets home she'll be high and dry and happy to end her babycation in NC this week. Well, they seem to be having fun but they are tired. My other son has a place in Coconut Grove that probably doesn't have power and as he sells Real Estate he won't be busy for a while so he's on vacation with his son.  Everywhere you go in NC this week you see Florida license plates and meet fellow Floridians visiting relatives waiting to go home. Seems everyone has a cousin in Raleigh.

Again... back in May 2017.
I posted a blog on possible tracks.
2017 Season.
General possible tracks.
Jim Williams nailed it.
See the first one below.
Land interaction was a worry.
We were all worried.
Now It seems you're worried.

What about Irma you wonder?

Her energy spread out he said above..

Watch the loop below.

Now you understand....

Below... 

Irma and Jose.

More tomorrow on Jose.

Oh and tomorrow and tonight.

I'm getting moisture from Irma.

Light winds.

Impressive.

Continue reading...

I'l update tomorrow late in the morning.

After I get hard data on the Florida Keys.

And more thoughts on sneaky Jose.

Sweet tropical dreams,

Bobbistorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Thanks for your patience

* * *

Flooding St. Johns River.

Jax.

 @VMMacchi  

Flooding is the story today.

The big story is across Florida.

They are just getting into the Keys to see now.

Irma. Taking up residence across SE.

A lesson in gardening.

BIG TREES GO OVER FAST.

Broward County.

Plant Palms.

Jax damage from our Dabuh.

Beautiful baby blue lawn chairs ;)

DRY SIDE OF IRMA

WET SIDE OF IRMA

More extratropical like now.

Irma's weather is moving N and NE.

The center is swirling far removed from rain.

So let's not talk on the Cone.

The "CONE" at this point is irrelevant.

Let the NHC go track the remnant low.

Irma is mostly extratropical currently.

Spread out all over.

Highest winds far from the center.

Wide View...

..will discuss Jose tonight.

One explanation on flooding pics in Jacksonville.

In SFL ground is POROUS.

Rains and water goes through coral rock ....

JAX is like GA .. RED CLAY.

Ground less porous.

More of a flood threat for now.

NOT LIKE HOUSTON

But the river is rising... 

..some storm surge.

In Miami water gone.

In Jax may take longer.

In GA the same.

GA getting much rain.

So since I am ignoring the NHC cone.

Let's look at the loop below.

Note moisture from Irma..

mixes w fronts moves NE.

Goes North.. Spreads out W and E

Then pushes up into Ohio Valley.

Inland flooding impacts could arise.

Watching the WV loop you see Irma lifting.

You see Jose waiting, watching.

To be honest I'm not sure where to begin. So much going through my mind, exhausted from following Irma for weeks after Harvey and worried my children in South Florida would survive the storm. I'm pretty tough; I can even be stoic and pragmatic. But, when the lives of your kids, grandkids, best friends and the city itself you love is at danger from a 185 MPH Hurricane it takes a bite out of you. About 3 days before landfall it looked bad for Miami, I woke up that morning afraid to look at my phone... with a sense of dread in the pit of my stomach. I now remember what that feels like; when Andrew was barreling towards Miami as a Category 5 Hurricane I had that same feeling in my stomach. Then the track pulled left... west towards the middle of the State and then the track pulled far left (too far) showing the West Coast with a possible landfall up near Tampa or just offshore. I know it's a cone but spoiler alert my friends at NHC everyone looks at the center of the cone. Many Floridians have learned to trust the Cone about 2 days before landfall... 36 hours before better than others. Just telling you what everyone tells me.

In truth the cone from 2 days before landfall was a good cone. In truth never pay attention to the exact movement of the cone. If you live in Miami and there is a hurricane to the South of you somewhere you watch the Hurricane. And, I mean South or SW or SE until it's WAY North of your latitude you don't stop watching the hurricane. Betsy was on her way to Carolinas or Jax and turned back, looped and pulled SW and then went West into the Florida Keys. Speaking of loopers, we will discuss Jose another day. For now he is not threatening the US and in a day or so the track may be more reliable.

So personally the kids who evacuated are here still in a nearby hotel keeping my grandson Benjamin busy. My daughter in law is in NY with my daughter and Charlotte is playing with her cousin Ber. My kids in Broward County all kept power. My brother in North Miami Beach lost power. They all lost cellphone service at some point. Water is I believe drinkable but normally they drink Spring Water bottled anyway. Miami and Broward water tends to taste strong of chlorine... My friends in NMB have no power and the High is supposed to be 87 degrees today though it is breezy. It won't stay "breezy" for long and temps go up all week into high 80s and lots of luck getting power back on :(

As for North Miami Beach for some reason (poor maintenance perhaps?) the bridge on 15th Avenue at the end of the canal that EVERYONE uses is damaged and people are being asked NOT to use it. Hate to see NMB in a Cat 3 or 4 hurricane.  I went to a local Key West paper to get some info it showed me bulldozers in NMB trying to remove debris from trees down.

And the grim pictures from the Florida Keys will soon come in and I can promise you that you will see what damage from a Major Hurricane is.. vs levee failure or bayou flooding. Ground Zero, Major Hurricane Damage and when the pictures come in from Marco Island it's going to be very sad, depressing and the loss of life total is going to go higher than most expect. They are bringing in portable morgues to the Florida Keys... they know what they are expecting. Power crews are South Bound headed into Florida trying to figure out where to begin. There is flooding from the river in Jax for now and tornado warnings going off as I type this for South Carolina. It's very gray in Raleigh from the high clouds aloft out ahead of Irma. White, milky white clouds.. but thankfully cool temperatures. My son in law is in South Carolina soutbound with a group of volunteers and FEMA crews headed into Florida.

http://jewishbreakingnews.com/2017/09/07/exclusive-hatzalah-nyc-prepares-convoy-emts-doctors-florida-amid-irma/ Disasters can bring out the good in people. Another son in law manages high end sneaker stores in South Florida. A friend's store was hit in Sunrise by looters who broke the window (far from the storm) ran in and started grabbing boxes of sneakers. Mind boggling and hard to understand that the police have to deal with this when the city made it through the hurricane. Looting is stealing, when the a city is going under water and someone runs into a damaged store about to go under rising water to grab food it's wrong but you can understand the rational. This was not spoiled milk, it's breaking and entering far from the real storm knowing the police are busy.

http://wsvn.com/news/local/police-looters-hit-footwear-store-in-fort-lauderdale/

Had the WSVN news crew not had driven by as they were running out with boxes of shoes they may not have been arrested. As always life is about timing. Thanks.

Hurricanes bring out the good in people... they bring out the bad. I hope and pray the looting stays at a minimum.

Schools, colleges all closed "INDEFINITELY" and more information will come in soon.

And more information on the Lower Keys and Marco Island will come in soon...

And there are more hurricanes out there this season I promise you. It's not over cause you are tired and have had enough. I seriously hope the NHC finds a way FAST to deal with systems where the weather goes one place and the low pressure center somewhere else. It's happened before; after Hurricane Ireme in 1999 they started using graphic for "weather mass" but then they dropped it. Why is this such a problem?  My kids stayed another day but many I know are now stuck in SEVERE STORMS with TREES falling onto highways (small ones and big roads) and there is flooding in JAX but they all woke up in their hotel rooms in NC and beyond, saw the cone went NW and got in their cars to race back to Florida to check on their homes. So aside from the traffic... it's complicated by the strong weather. Many from Boca would NEVER had seen weather this bad but now they are on I95 Southbound stuck in traffic with tornado warnings. Thanks... fix the cone. I've heard Rick Knabb on TWC say over and over "I hate this cone" so fix it... it's time. In a fluid world where people can get faster data on an APP one thing I learned sadly from Irma was FEW people go to the NHC site for info they just go to see the cone... or they get it shared on Facebook with editorial comments from Uncle Bob and Aunt Martha.

And EVERYONE has said to me... STOP SHOWING ALL THE MODELS and GIVE US A FORECAST with regard to local TV news. If they want to see the models they go online. When they put on their nightly news (many still do) they want to hear a FORECAST not model discussion that sounds confusing and ... confuses them.

Mike is the King of Spaghetti Models and almost everyone I saw was on his site looking for information. He did a great job and constantly updates. In a visual snapchat world... Pinterest world.. people want images and hard facts fast. Don't show a cone that pulls NW when all the WEATHER is going NE. Fix it. Nuff said.

http://spaghettimodels.com/

http://www.spaghettimodels.com/irma

I will update AT the bottom today with NEWS form Keys... Jax.. Naples...

A coast guard helicopter is on it's way to Keys.. Key West to get news.

https://keysnews.com/

Thanks for reading my long discussion today.

Again EACH bridge in the Florida Keys will need to be INSPECTED CAREFULLY and fixed and inspected and much of the fill was washed away and took chunks of the highway with it. Expect it take a long time before it's repaired. It will take a long time before the power grid is rebuilt as per FPL press releases. Hunker down and know it's going to be a long time. And then it will be as if it didn't happen after a few years with no landfalls. People remember, but they move on. Life goes on.

Check back often.
Besos Bobbistorm

http://www.redcross.org/ DONATE. I never ask for money for my blog but I do ask for you to give charity to those in need.