Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Thursday, September 14, 2017

UPDATED! 11 PM TD14 FORMS IN ATLANTIC... As Predicted ... RED 70% 96L 97L Hurricane Jose, Are Lee & Maria Behind Him? CV Waves Coming Alive. Hurricane Season Goes On and On.

TD 14.
As I said below.
It was just a matter of time.
Cabo Verde Wave.

They upgraded based on Dvorak.
You've seen me post this loop.
Simplistically measures strength.

bd_lalo-animated.gif (720×480)

Discussion explains the upgrade below.

Cone for TD14

HUGE model spread.
Either West bound...
..or a fish storm.
Obviously  many are hoping for fried fish.
Stay tuned.

As for Jose.
The NHC keeps the cone just off the coast.
Let's see what they do next.

Hard to believe Jose went so far South.

He soon as an opportunity to go North again.

As I said this morning these waves looked better than the graphics showed and they were quickly upgraded to Invests and they went from orange to red. I wouldn't be surprised to see advisories started on one of these waves. Needs to be watched carefully down the road. Later in this log there are images on model tracks. 

Leaving cones up here so you can see..
The westward movement of the cone.
All day.

Going to leave the 5 PM Jose cone up ...
..and I'll update the 11 PM at above.

They downgraded Jose to TS.
Apparently it was a bad boy.
Wouldn't follow the forecast.
He is forecast to be a hurricane again.
After he sits in his corner it seems.

I'll update in the AM after 8 PM.

I'm in a hotel room tonight.
My tv thinks I'm in Montana.
You decide... know me better.

The guide in the room said TWC.
Weather Nation is not TWC.
I am not in Montana.
But it's a nice room...
... nice city.
South bound back to Miami.
 Big question is where is #TD14 going/


* * *

2 pm. 
Both now red. 
70% in 5 day. 

Will update models later. 
On the road.. 

Invest 96L and 97L formed

rb_lalo-animated.gif (720×480)

Nice twist there.

Moving fast.

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Everything's moving fast today.

Stay tuned for fast breaking updates.
Check back often.
Later today I'll post models for 96L 97L
Now that we have invest...
..we will have model runs.

* * * 

Fall color in the tropics.
So a lot to talk about today.
Nothing definitive in the end game.

Sunrise over Atlantic

There are two tropical waves off the coast of Africa. We could call them Wave A and Wave B or Lee and Maria. Or we can wait until they get an Invest at the NRL and a floater on the NHC site. Can both develop is the question. Most long term models show 1 storm, not a huge hurricane, let's say a Tropical Storm for now moving west.  I'm going to talk first on the waves as most people seeing them may tend towards tropical panic or begin taking Happy Camper Pills. Tropics are on over drive this year as if they are making up for all those recent slow seasons. There is a site many of us use that has lately become popular on social media. Much to play with there and one thing it does is show you models in a different way than other sites do so sharing it with you below. Think Earthnull doing models.  Of course they don't agree, do they ever? But they both show two possible tropical problems. The Euro gets Jose way too close for comfort for New York, Long Island, New England and Cape Cod and it shows a system moving near the Islands. The GFS, people complain but everyone watches it, moves Jose way out to sea rather than having coastal impacts, however shows a stronger system trapped under the ridge some close to South Florida. Good news, bad news ... it's all a matter of location which you are more concerned with when watching the tropics. GFS good for NE, Euro not. GFS not so good for Florida, but takes Jose out to sea.  Images shown below.

Official cones for Jose.
I put up 3 of them below.
The larger one is the recent one.

There's a saying in forecasting.
Watch the trend.
The cone inches closer.

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Wider view.

wv-animated.gif (720×480)

View above shows why he is looping.
Caught between two highs.
Waiting his turn.

Let's not worry so much today on Jose. Not saying he isn't an issue, he might be, but he is far away and currently looping however while looping he is trying to pull it back together. Time will tell and the the NHC will shuttle the cone about based mostly on the EURO with a blend of the consensus mixed in there. They have made it clear in their own discussion they weigh heavily on the EURO.  

Good discussion from NHC
Wave talk from Blake.

And there are the waves below.

And Jose.
Lead wave looks healthier than 40%
Then again the 2nd wave is healthy.
Healthy over water.
They know how to swim.

Global view.

I wrote a long post yesterday explaining long range thoughts on Jose and recovery from Irma. Since I wrote that I heard from several Key West friends who evacuated or stayed, both okay as are their homes. I haven't heard from a few who obviously have no power for their cell phones. Not everyone has generators. Island culture and all.. some do, some don't. In Miami and Broward my kids have power and my son-in-law hasn't been heard from so we think he's in Key West with Fema. Or on his way there... the further down the Florida Keys you go the weaker the cell phone service is.....  So check out that blog post with pictures of damage from Big Pine Key as well as some history of the Florida Keys, why there are three distinct areas and why people in the lower keys get annoyed when you think they are close to Key Largo. Upper, Middle, Lower and Key West is in theory part of the Lower Keys though it tends to be in it's own world. And, a little biographical information on me and my family's connection to Key West, Tampa and Miami (Quincy is not exempt but I didn't go there) so read on please. I'll update on top as the day evolves and as for the waves.. it's only a matter of time.

And, I want you to remember one thing here. I said earlier that everything is locational depending on your perspective and location. We will always remember IRMA as the Major Hurricane that took on the whole state of Florida before causing death and destruction in Georgia as well as flooding in Georgia and South Carolina. But, we tend to forget we got the "weaker" version of Irma. In truth Irma slammed into the Islands like a wicked machine tearing up everything in it's path. How people survived is miraculous and shows how we can build structures to withstand Cat 5 Hurricanes. It takes money to build such structures and those not in them ran from the water and hid from the wind and somehow survived. And many died and the death toll is a moving target so I don't like to publish it as if that is a final figure.  IRMA was the 185 MPH CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE that slammed into the Islands and caused much worse damage there than what we see in the Florida Keys and Naples. I know it's hard to believe but true, and don't forget to thank Cuba for "weakening" Irma a bit as they took a strong hit and no one is talking about that. Had Irma hit the Florida Keys and Marco Island looking like that the death toll and the damage would be exponentially worse. Trust me. So say a prayer of thanks.

I urge you to check out Mike's Facebook Page. Why you ask? It's a great place to share your thoughts. Kind of like the old days of message boards and chat rooms. And when I say "share" I mean fears, concerns, jokes, thoughts. It's a friendly place, not as many nerdy, geeky people fighting on a message board about this model or that model and who has the better graphic. There's a lot of love, friendship and compassion. Like Mike... it's very real and if you feel the need to talk to others about your love or fear of hurricanes it's a good place. Sometimes bottling up those thoughts and emotions isn't good for the psyche so if you need to share... go there. And, Mike is funny... and wise and it's a feel good environment ... a sort of safe place and Lord knows with the tropics on speed this season we all need a safe place.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter.

Ps again link to last post.
Richer in details and discussion.
Good pics too..

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