June 1st Start of the Hurricane Season. Will Your City Have a Hurricane Make Landfall Near You? Can PR Get a Rest to Continue Cleaning up from 2017?

Rarely do I do this but I am reposting much of yesterday's post as it is the most relevant information I can give you going into the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Prepare, prepare, prepare. But before you prepare you must really stop, think and take note of what your particular concerns are regarding health, property, family and any business you have in a hurricane prone area. Every person has different needs though the basic ones such as non perishable foods, emergency medical supplies, medicine, water, gas in the tank and the always valuable hand operated can opener. Do you have children or pets or elderly people living with you? Are you elderly and your kids live far away? Do you live near or in a known flood zone and be aware sometimes an area not known to flood... floods anyway. So stop, look around and make lists of what your concerns may be and then PREPARE. Hurricanes are one of the few "natural disasters" that can be prepared for and unless you are the Island of PR facing a Category 5 Hurricane you almost always have a chance to protect your family and your home!

Small chance something pops in the Atlantic.

Epac finally woke up and shows potential.

There is talk that down the road something will try to form Alberto like down in the Caribbean again and as the models have been popular this year with that spot that is within range of climo then pay attention and check in once in a while to see if the Euro comes around to what the GFS is selling. And, this year New England down to the Mid Atlantic is at especially high risk so keep your eyes out to the East to see what might be brewing there. There is model chatter about something that could affect that part of the coast. We call it model chatter when models indicate, spin up "something" and everyone online in the meteorological world begins to chit chat about it. Chatter is innuendo mostly, however sometimes where there is smoke there really is fire.

Again the best advice I can give you is to take Hurricane Preparation seriously.  Take it to the bank.  Prepare.

I also believe GOM will continue to be in play as well as the East Coast from Florida Georgia line to Maine this year. A cooler distant Atlantic doesn't stop Home Grown from developing.  And usually only the strong waves survive the trip and can turn into deadly storms that make it to higher latitudes.

Many meteorologists make predictions as do government agencies. They can tell you why this year is different from last or the one before the last one. They can tell you there is a cool pool of water out by Africa in late May going into the season and that would inhibit tropical waves from developing into Hurricanes in the MDR. That is true, it also inhibits the development of strong, early hurricanes that become Fish Storms and curve gracefully out to sea. They point to a ton of factors all of which exist and all of which are part of the mathematical problem they are trying to solve that being predicting what the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season will be like. 1985 and 1989 were years with similar conditions and they brought Hurricane Gloria in 1985 to the East Coast and Hurricane Hugo in 1989 to South Carolina. The rains from Hugo spread far inland into areas where mudslides and flash flooding were caused this week by residual tropical rain from the remnants of Alberto. This May in North Carolina was one of the wettest Mays on record and it reminds me of interviews I have had with old timers who always tell me that the year of Hurricane Fran was a very wet year when the soil was already soaked before Fran made it to landfall and kept on going all the way to Raleigh.

No meteorologist, not even the best, can tell you which city is going to get impacted until after the final Cone from the NHC has been posted and after the last reporter leaves town. Jim Cantore can tell you where he's going and where he's been, but the season unfolds in real time in the rear view mirror. Andrew was the first named storm of the very slow 1992 Hurricane Season and no one in South Florida will ever tell you 1992 was a slow season, it is synonymous with Hurricane Andrew a worst case scenario that happened.

This is the truth, real truth, take it to the bank .... the ONLY thing you CAN know for sure is that you have prepared as best you can for your particular harbor ...or home. Each person has a different priority and each home has a different priority. If you are elderly and have special needs or if you have 3 small children under the age of 5 you have your own particular needs. A big house with large windows has special needs that a small condo with one sliding glass door facing the ocean on the 18th floor might have. An ocean front Studio Apartment with an awesome view or a 13 room 2 story house with multiple windows and a leaky roof each have their own point of entry where the wind could get into their home, their lives and leave memories. Many kids who went through Hurricane Andrew have ....and they were the FIRST to get out of DODGE when they thought Irma was coming to Miami.

Trust me... being Hurricane Strong is the best thing you can be to give the best chance of making it through this Hurricane Season. Do not be distracted by exotic scientific words in reports explaining why this may be a weaker year or why it is comparable to such and such a year. Prepare as if this is the year that you get your Hurricane Andrew, Fran, Hugo or Gloria. And remember far from where Subtropical Storm Alberto made landfall near Panama City, Florida people were killed in Interior North Carolina from residual effects of intense, tropical rain that caused their homes to collapse, a tree to fall on the car of two reporters covering flooding and there may be more to come.

I'm in Florida.

Speaking to some people.

Doing some research.

The house down the street....

...still has a blue tarp on it.

Few here are excited about this being June 1st!

I'll update as things develop.

For anyone who wants to go deep in some thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season this is a great read and a valuable source of information. It has a glossary in there and you can Google terminology as well online. You can learn much from this report as to the many factors we look at as to weather this season will or won't be busy. But we will only know looking back on October 1st if this season was or wasn't busy for sure. 

https://tropical.colostate.edu/media/sites/111/2018/05/2018-06.pdf

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Best Advice and Prediction for 2018 Hurricane Season - From Ormond Beach Thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

In Ormond Beach this morning enjoying the sunrise. I'll update the blog later today. But this is the best advice I can give you above.  Take it to the bank.  Prepare.

I also believe  GOM will continue to be in play as well as the East Coast from Florida Georgia line to Maine this year. A cooler distant Atlantic doesn't stop Home Grown from developing.  And usually only the strong waves survive the trip and can turn into deadly storms that make it to higher latitudes.

Many meteorologists make predictions as do government agencies. They can tell you why this year is different from last or the one before the last one. They can tell you there is a cool pool of water out by Africa in late May going into the season and that would inhibit tropical waves from developing into Hurricanes in the MDR. That is true, it also inhibits the development of strong, early hurricanes that become Fish Storms and curve gracefully out to sea. They point to a ton of factors all of which exist and all of which are part of the mathematical problem they are trying to solve that being predicting what the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season will be like. 1985 and 1989 were years with similar conditions and they brought Hurricane Gloria in 1985 to the East Coast and Hurricane Hugo in 1989 to South Carolina. The rains from Hugo spread far inland into areas where mudslides and flash flooding were caused this week by residual tropical rain from the remnants of Alberto. This May in North Carolina was one of the wettest Mays on record and it reminds me of interviews I have had with old timers who always tell me that the year of Hurricane Fran was a very wet year when the soil was already soaked before Fran made it to landfall and kept on going all the way to Raleigh.

No meteorologist, not even the best, can tell you which city is going to get impacted until after the final Cone from the NHC has been posted and after the last reporter leaves town. Jim Cantore can tell you where he's going and where he's been, but the season unfolds in real time in the rear view mirror. Andrew was the first named storm of the very slow 1992 Hurricane Season and no one in South Florida will ever tell you 1992 was a slow season, it is synonymous with Hurricane Andrew a worst case scenario that happened.

This is the truth, real truth, take it to the bank .... the ONLY thing you CAN know for sure is that you have prepared as best you can for your particular harbor ...or home. Each person has a different priority and each home has a different priority. If you are elderly and have special needs or if you have 3 small children under the age of 5 you have your own particular needs. A big house with large windows has special needs that a small condo with one sliding glass door facing the ocean on the 18th floor might have. An ocean front Studio Apartment with an awesome view or a 13 room 2 story house with multiple windows and a leaky roof each have their own point of entry where the wind could get into their home, their lives and leave memories. Many kids who went through Hurricane Andrew have ....and they were the FIRST to get out of DODGE when they thought Irma was coming to Miami.

Trust me... being Hurricane Strong is the best thing you can be to give the best chance of making it through this Hurricane Season. Do not be distracted by exotic scientific words in reports explaining why this may be a weaker year or why it is comparable to such and such a year. Prepare as if this is the year that you get your Hurricane Andrew, Fran, Hugo or Gloria. And remember far from where Subtropical Storm Alberto made landfall near Panama City, Florida people were killed in Interior North Carolina from residual effects of intense, tropical rain that caused their homes to collapse, a tree to fall on the car of two reporters covering flooding and there may be more to come.

Take it seriously. Prepare. That's the best advice I can give you. And, IF the East Coast gets to see a Hurricane up close and personal later this year don't say I didn't warn you.

http://www.publix.com/pages/publix-storm-basics

Reporting in from the always beautiful Ormond Beach where we spend quite a bit of time on our way back and forth from Miami to Raleigh.

Besos Bobbistorm
@Bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps... Got to see the sunrise and the moon set this morning at the beach. How incredible is that?

Updated... Tropical Depression Harvey forms .. Headed to Texas & Then Touring the Beach Resorts Along the Gulf Coast. IF you live there.. time to go shopping, prepare.

8 PM Update

I wanted to show Wind Probs.

Note they are watching wide...

Landfall is expected in Texas.

IF your city is on this list it has a chance..

...of getting tropical storm force winds.

It goes E to Gulfport.

Looks weak still but that should change.

Note on WV loop below you can see the ULL

The ULL is spoken about in discussion from NHC below.

Guide to landfall times.

AGAIN......

RAIN WILL MOVE IN BEFORE LANDFALL

A few from up above.

A new wave is leaving Africa.

That is how far Harvey has traveled.

A quarter of the way around the world?

Don't underestimate it.

IF your area starts to flood do not drive.

Don't drive when you hear it's flooding.

Prepare. Sit tight.

Hunker Down. 

Stay safe.

If your area is prone to flooding..

Leave in advance, far in advance.

I'll update later in real time.

Thanks for your patience ..

Tropical Depression Harvey forms as expected. Again rain and flooding is a bigger concern over a large expanse of the coast along the Gulf of Mexico. And areas far from the center of Harvey will get inundated with heavy, torrential rains. That is important to remember when looking the cone below. 

The NHC put out this product...

...shows the forecast rainfall totals.

Why you ask?

The image of Harvey above is a nice picture but it does not show the whole story. The center of Harvey is the colored area down to the south of the other colored areas. I want you all to understand this is not a "normal" tropical system as rain, stormy weather will be it's calling card way in advance of "landfall" and after landfall the rain will continue to be a pain. The center of Harvey is forecast to make landfall and then bobble back down into the GOM where it stays over very hot water sampling various Texas beaches until it makes another landfall again further to the East. IF this plays out, and there is no reason to believe the models that for once agree are wrong, it moves the rainfall further East towards Louisiana (pumps working yet?) and Mississippi that has been plagued with localized flooding all summer. They do not need this, but we don't get to vote for where we want tropical storms to go or we would have a bunch of Fish Storms. This is NOT a Fish Storm it's red meat... beef, pork take your choice and looking for local BBQ Joints in it's path. Maybe it will put up reviews on Yelp of it's thoughts on the Gulf Coast beaches.

Further to the East you can see 92L. 

Still there....

...still crazy after all these weeks.

Remember please both these systems rolled off the coast of Africa a long time ago. Harvey made landfall in the Islands, causing localized flooding and then went off the wagon for a week or so. And somehow it seems to have made it's way to secret meetings with AA leaders who helped Harvey make a new start in life and the NHC gave it one last chance to do it's thing and show what it can do. Sort of a late bloomer in ways, the come back kid. And it's stalled out due to weak steering currents doing practice spins in the Gulf of Mexico. Not a good situation for places in it's path but a good set up for Ole Harvey. 92L is taking note and may form later in the week. A strong signature below where Harvey is and a weaker one to the ENE that is 92L.

That signature should tighten up over time.

My friend shows the set up I mentioned above.

Way to the North of the center is rain..

...reaching out, touching you...

Not your typical outflow...

...but shows where he is going.

Below HurricaneTracker App shows the problem.

That image above is the 2nd landfall...

...and showing what could be Irma.

Or just 92L ... a TD or TS..

Time will tell.

And as Jim says below...

"PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE LAST LINE"

. 

Lastly...

Back on August 14th we were worrying about the pumps on long range discussion on fears that 91L would get into the GOM and become a problem. Most models showed it turning but there was much discussion online that it could get further west, curving up after making landfall in the Caribbean. Then we discussed 92L that was going to cross Florida and go into the GOM. We've been worrying on these pumps for weeks now, and not much has changed I'm afraid. Let's hope they do not get tested by Hurricane Harvey....

http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2017/08/91l-making-many-nervous-even-tho-its-so.html

Note discussion and images below..................

The satellite picture on August 14th is below.

Where's that lead wave now?

In the Gulf of Mexico.

And OH LOOK what else is there...

NHC still piddling around with 92L

Putting out good products for Harvey.

TO WARN PPL IN ITS PATH.

PREPARE..

Time to show some love for African wave ... 

...in my opinion. 

Models develop it.

Stay tuned.

I'll discuss down the road later.

My bottom line... 

IF you live anywhere from Corpus Christi to say Biloxi please pay attention to Harvey. Landfall may be along the Texas coast. Rain will spread inland, far inland some models show it moving inland as far North at I20 (NOT I10 but I20) and it is possible rain and tropical weather conditions will affect areas as far East as say Biloxi. Just pay attention. IF you live in Houston you better be reading this from on your cellphone while standing in a long line in Kroger or Trader Joe's where you went to start your hurricane shopping. I am being serious. If you think the lines are long today, wait until tomorrow. And, again most everything you need can also be bought at a Dollar Store so save some money honey and start shopping. IF you need medications or have a family member that does make sure you get that taken care of now.

Besos BobbiStorm

Ps... I mean it! 

http://www.publix.com/pages/publix-storm-basics

If you have a nice little dollar store owned by some local people selling local products please shop there it's good at times like this to buy from local companies who can use the revenue and offer the product. In North Miami Beach before Wilma when the stores were crazy my best friend and I bought a whole bunch of stuff including a new mop at the nice little Haitian Dollar Store down the road... no long lines, friendly people and lots of paper products, candles, good batteries, etc. Or order from Amazon... just be aware you may have several days of messy weather and areas that flood will flood again except it will not be a small local problem but a big problem across a wide expanse of geography. It may not look like a hurricane or strong Tropical Storm but it will look better when all the tuna fish and peanut butter is sold out.