UPDATED - TS Harvey, Invest 93L CV Wave, PTC10 Off SE Coast Headed to SC, NC Possibly TS IRMA Later Today... TORNADO WARNINGS CURRENTLY ONGOING

Harvey 

Just goes on and on and on.

Yet he will eventually move on.

Exhausting tragedy.

Still a Tropical Storm

Still a Flooding Problem.

And off the East Coast of the US..

That bright red area is PTC10.

What was once Invest 92L

PTC10

There is intricate discussion going on as to whether or not this system will eventually become a Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm. Yet....it has 40 MPH winds, remember that. Suffice it to say a storm by any name is still a storm and there is stormy weather moving en masse along the East Coast of the United States. So let's focus on the weather and not the discussion of the name. The winds are there for Tropical Storm strength as it currently has 40 MPH winds, however it's circulation is not complete. There is heavy rain along this stormy patch of weather and some possibilities of flooding in areas in Eastern NC that are prone to flooding. The beaches have high surf and rip currents and it looks...well...very stormy. Here In Raleigh there is a constant, beautiful breeze with light rain. Feels tropical ... feels a bit like an early Autumn Cool Front and then it feels tropical again. As it moves up the coast beyond the warning areas the beaches along the Del Marva Peninsular should see storm whipped surf. Nothing like what it could been had the shear enhanced by Harvey had not been there to create problems for 92L (PTC10) 

And, then Labor Day Weekend comes with no big storm threat along the East Coast. That may happen later from Invest 93L in the Atlantic but this week enjoy life and have a wonderful Labor Day Weekend.

From Discussion below.

93L Models - Discussion.

80% chances in 5 days.

40% in 2 days.

Has a nice spin.

Really too early to tell where it's going.

For now WNW... maybe NW..

Then maybe bend back to WNW or W.

We have lots of time to watch.

Below is a comparison.

Compare and contrast Harvey and PTC10

Both with low intensity forecasts.

Tropical Storm...

Then a ticket out of town..

PTC10 .. ? Irma sooner.

Harvey later.

But they will go..

Good solid discussion from the NHC. A dry slot visible on water vapor imagery shows things are beginning to happen regarding Harvey. Yet, he has not started to make his move. Winds will be felt in areas where people are trying to put their lives back together close to the coast where Harvey originally made landfall. This can be seen on the water vapor loop I am posting from LSU below.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/281449.shtml

Watch the blue air (dry)

moving down around Harvey.

At some point...

....he will move.

As the cone shows above.

Regarding PTC10

Cone and discussion the same.

Waiting for it to pull it together.

See information below.

Thank you.

Similarity between Harvey and PTC10 above.

Waves out in the Atlantic evident.

Stalled frontal boundary.

Headline from the NHC.

TS Harvey.

PTC10

http://www.weather.gov/lch/

That link shows a tornado warning currently.

Lake Charles as shown above.

New Iberia and St Marys Parish as well.

 The basics regarding PTC10 are as follows. Currently it's awaiting better organization and stronger wind speeds for an upgrade to TS Irma. PTC10 is dealing with shear from the outflow of Harvey and close to a stalled out frontal boundary. It has a small window of opportunity and should it take that opportunity it will become Irma. If not it will be absorbed into the larger system that will move rapidly off the East Coast and take it out to sea. Even then it will enhance the power of that overall larger system and bring strong weather in it's path. You will start hearing words and explanations on what is Extratropical and the word Baroclinic may get bantered about by meteorologists. Don't get confused with names, a storm by any name is a storm. Plain and simple. Plan accordingly.  Note below an image posted by Dabuh who is famous for his surf and weather reports. It's a reliable product. It shows a Possible Tropical Cyclone.

Currently a sort of one sided STORM system.

Cradled in the curve of the Carolina coastline.

This is the area that will be impacted by PTC10

The cone is wider.

That's a forecast coordinate.

Cone below from earlier.
Nothing new there.

I want to be really clear here. PTC10 is NOT Tropical Depression Ten. They are not the same the P stands for POTENTIAL and most likely it will become Irma, however I have seen posts online by many who should know better who simply say TD10. Yes, details matter. Words matter.

As for Harvey, it is currently a Tropical Storm and forecast to stay a Tropical Storm. That can change as always so stay on top of it if you or loved ones are in your path. As Houston is the 4th largest city and much commerce goes through that large area this is an economic mess for many as well as a personal tragedy for those in it's path. The NHC puts out a good product that is shown below. It's the basics, pictures, words; more words than Twitter and Snapchat but concise and well done.

See this image below:

When NHC links to the NWS.

Follow those links.

Links now show NWS Lake Charles.

Note the heavy moisture is moving East ..

My thoughts from last night remain the same, you may want to read them below.  Anytime a system is back out over the water in enhances the moisture and the misery. The loop below shows how that moisture is being funneled up and over the area making TS Harvey look more like a Stationary Twister on satellite imagery than a true Tropical Storm. The winds are there and it has a viable center, despite the odd signature on satellite imagery.

http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2017/08/ts-harvey-reborn-tropical-storm-again.html

Next we have Invest 93L

Introduced this morning to the mix.

Westbound.

Not going to discuss models.

From Spaghetti Models.

As soon as they are all out.

Mike will put them up.

http://spaghettimodels.com/

He also has a specialty page for Harvey.

http://spaghettimodels.com/harvey

There's lots of time to discuss 93L

It's moving westound.

You can connect those dots.

Threatens land or goes out to sea.

Leaving you with one thought.

Other than please donate what you can.

Remember September.

September is 4 days away.

Hurricane Season.

Next name is Jose.

After Irma ...comes Jose.

This is a huge story.

According to Amazon news ...

Image from the Washington Post below.

My thoughts are with you Texas. My prayers are with you. I've donated to the http://www.redcross.org/ and I hope others do as well.

As for the rest of you in Hurricane Country... Remember September. Hurricane Season is just ramping up. Get a plan you can execute and be realistic about the threat this Hurricane Season may pose to your particular place in the scheme of things. El Nino is no longer in charge and Hurricanes are back in style again.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter
I'll update at the top throughout the day.
Or start a new post if NEW possibly.
Check back often for updates.
Thank you..

http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2017/08/ts-harvey-reborn-tropical-storm-again.html

Updated... Tropical Depression Harvey forms .. Headed to Texas & Then Touring the Beach Resorts Along the Gulf Coast. IF you live there.. time to go shopping, prepare.

8 PM Update

I wanted to show Wind Probs.

Note they are watching wide...

Landfall is expected in Texas.

IF your city is on this list it has a chance..

...of getting tropical storm force winds.

It goes E to Gulfport.

Looks weak still but that should change.

Note on WV loop below you can see the ULL

The ULL is spoken about in discussion from NHC below.

Guide to landfall times.

AGAIN......

RAIN WILL MOVE IN BEFORE LANDFALL

A few from up above.

A new wave is leaving Africa.

That is how far Harvey has traveled.

A quarter of the way around the world?

Don't underestimate it.

IF your area starts to flood do not drive.

Don't drive when you hear it's flooding.

Prepare. Sit tight.

Hunker Down. 

Stay safe.

If your area is prone to flooding..

Leave in advance, far in advance.

I'll update later in real time.

Thanks for your patience ..

Tropical Depression Harvey forms as expected. Again rain and flooding is a bigger concern over a large expanse of the coast along the Gulf of Mexico. And areas far from the center of Harvey will get inundated with heavy, torrential rains. That is important to remember when looking the cone below. 

The NHC put out this product...

...shows the forecast rainfall totals.

Why you ask?

The image of Harvey above is a nice picture but it does not show the whole story. The center of Harvey is the colored area down to the south of the other colored areas. I want you all to understand this is not a "normal" tropical system as rain, stormy weather will be it's calling card way in advance of "landfall" and after landfall the rain will continue to be a pain. The center of Harvey is forecast to make landfall and then bobble back down into the GOM where it stays over very hot water sampling various Texas beaches until it makes another landfall again further to the East. IF this plays out, and there is no reason to believe the models that for once agree are wrong, it moves the rainfall further East towards Louisiana (pumps working yet?) and Mississippi that has been plagued with localized flooding all summer. They do not need this, but we don't get to vote for where we want tropical storms to go or we would have a bunch of Fish Storms. This is NOT a Fish Storm it's red meat... beef, pork take your choice and looking for local BBQ Joints in it's path. Maybe it will put up reviews on Yelp of it's thoughts on the Gulf Coast beaches.

Further to the East you can see 92L. 

Still there....

...still crazy after all these weeks.

Remember please both these systems rolled off the coast of Africa a long time ago. Harvey made landfall in the Islands, causing localized flooding and then went off the wagon for a week or so. And somehow it seems to have made it's way to secret meetings with AA leaders who helped Harvey make a new start in life and the NHC gave it one last chance to do it's thing and show what it can do. Sort of a late bloomer in ways, the come back kid. And it's stalled out due to weak steering currents doing practice spins in the Gulf of Mexico. Not a good situation for places in it's path but a good set up for Ole Harvey. 92L is taking note and may form later in the week. A strong signature below where Harvey is and a weaker one to the ENE that is 92L.

That signature should tighten up over time.

My friend shows the set up I mentioned above.

Way to the North of the center is rain..

...reaching out, touching you...

Not your typical outflow...

...but shows where he is going.

Below HurricaneTracker App shows the problem.

That image above is the 2nd landfall...

...and showing what could be Irma.

Or just 92L ... a TD or TS..

Time will tell.

And as Jim says below...

"PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE LAST LINE"

. 

Lastly...

Back on August 14th we were worrying about the pumps on long range discussion on fears that 91L would get into the GOM and become a problem. Most models showed it turning but there was much discussion online that it could get further west, curving up after making landfall in the Caribbean. Then we discussed 92L that was going to cross Florida and go into the GOM. We've been worrying on these pumps for weeks now, and not much has changed I'm afraid. Let's hope they do not get tested by Hurricane Harvey....

http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2017/08/91l-making-many-nervous-even-tho-its-so.html

Note discussion and images below..................

The satellite picture on August 14th is below.

Where's that lead wave now?

In the Gulf of Mexico.

And OH LOOK what else is there...

NHC still piddling around with 92L

Putting out good products for Harvey.

TO WARN PPL IN ITS PATH.

PREPARE..

Time to show some love for African wave ... 

...in my opinion. 

Models develop it.

Stay tuned.

I'll discuss down the road later.

My bottom line... 

IF you live anywhere from Corpus Christi to say Biloxi please pay attention to Harvey. Landfall may be along the Texas coast. Rain will spread inland, far inland some models show it moving inland as far North at I20 (NOT I10 but I20) and it is possible rain and tropical weather conditions will affect areas as far East as say Biloxi. Just pay attention. IF you live in Houston you better be reading this from on your cellphone while standing in a long line in Kroger or Trader Joe's where you went to start your hurricane shopping. I am being serious. If you think the lines are long today, wait until tomorrow. And, again most everything you need can also be bought at a Dollar Store so save some money honey and start shopping. IF you need medications or have a family member that does make sure you get that taken care of now.

Besos BobbiStorm

Ps... I mean it! 

http://www.publix.com/pages/publix-storm-basics

If you have a nice little dollar store owned by some local people selling local products please shop there it's good at times like this to buy from local companies who can use the revenue and offer the product. In North Miami Beach before Wilma when the stores were crazy my best friend and I bought a whole bunch of stuff including a new mop at the nice little Haitian Dollar Store down the road... no long lines, friendly people and lots of paper products, candles, good batteries, etc. Or order from Amazon... just be aware you may have several days of messy weather and areas that flood will flood again except it will not be a small local problem but a big problem across a wide expanse of geography. It may not look like a hurricane or strong Tropical Storm but it will look better when all the tuna fish and peanut butter is sold out. 

Florida Trof.. Invest 99L & the ULL ... Caribbean Wave Flaring Up Near Where Franklin Began...Franklin Over Mexico Out of the Picture.

Today is a day to wait and watch.

A lot going on but much of it is subtle.

First off you can see Franklin exiting our world and moving rapidly towards the Eastern Pacific. The GOM is free of action today, although the Northern Gulf of Mexico coast shows continued convection creating localized flooding problems. To the immediate East of South Florida is a trough of low pressure that is moving NW along the coast of Florida and it needs to be watched for a few reasons. ESE of the Florida blob is the ongoing saga of Invest 99L and the ULL that is stuck like glue to it. And, lastly worth mentioning a wave that has moved into the Eastern Caribbean is flaring up and traveling the same back roads that 90L did before it became Franklin. Looking back at where Franklin began you can see why I watch any area that shows increased convection in that part of the Caribbean with the current set up. The recent past is often prologue to the near term future weather wise. Spoiler alert the yellow area became Franklin. The red area did not become Franklin.

Moving on to a color water vapor loop below that shows a different perspective.

The wonderful water vapor loop above takes us deeper into the structure of the moist atmosphere as well as showing the Upper Level Lows and the dry high regions. Note the wave in the Eastern Carib is followed by another wave from our 2017 Cabo Verde Wave Train. Going back to August 3rd when we were given a bright red area off the coast of Africa and yellow area appeared in the Caribbean as a possible area of formation.  You can also see the Upper Level Low really well in this loop. It twists, enhancing rainfall in 99L and then it chokes if off again. 

And surprises have been common this year and last year so I see no reason to ignore the possibility of more popping up close in creating home grown systems. Home grown from waves that traveled far but couldn't get it together until they got closer to land. That's problematic as the closer they get to land the harder it is for them to become fish storms. Yesterday the NHC posted a yellow circle off the coast of Florida in the Bahamas. Art imitates life as a weak area of vorticity spun up near the Bahamas and made a face at the forecasters in South Florida at the NHC. You can see below and judge for yourself. Is that a wink, a smile or is it gritting it's teeth there below?

For South Florida this enhances the rainfall totals and may cause some locally heavy flooding, but it's just another day in a tropical paradise where it rains often this time of year; especially this particular year. Despite a strong high Miami has been in the flow for monsoonal type of rainstorms way past the usual prime time for Miami Monsoons in May, June and early July. August begins normally to dry out but time will tell this year. 

The NWS last night in Miami talked on it with the sound of "yeah whatever, we are used to this" and that's probably true. This discussion is shown above, though this morning they did warn on rip tides and pop up strong storms. As this area it is moving WNW to NW it could cause problems up the way. And Chick Jacobs knows up the way as in Carolina weather as in specifically the Sandhills. Google it unless you play golf in which case I'm sure you know where it is... 

A good link to use for anything Florida is below. It has a great radar site and I suggest you hold onto that link as it's valuable during the Hurricane Season or any time of year if you live in Florida. And before it affects the Carolina's weather let's look at South Florida. Picture it sliding up the coast much like the system that Julia formed from last year.

Rain forecast for today in Florida.

Messy... very messy.

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/current-weather-conditions

Speaking of links and Tropical Storm Julia. In September of 2016 the NHC put up an Invest for an area just off the coast of South Florida and added a circle on their map highlighting concern. Then they pulled the Invest. Then they put it back up and eventually it evolved into Tropical Storm Julia. It had low odds and they pretty much kept saying "yeah we see it" and everyone was as always looking beyond out into the Atlantic at a westbound tropical wave. I was pretty sure something would form and decided to go down to Florida for my son's wedding at a time we could intercept it and see some tropical weather along the way. I wasn't disappointed. The drive through Georgia into Florida was intense and in Jacksonville tropical storm conditions definitely existed, the hotel we stayed in on Ormond Beach had some flooding in the oceanfront rooms. The little yellow circle off of Florida last year was ignored for waves that had better model support until Julia crawled onto the beaches of North Florida and the NHC called it a Tropical Storm over land. The end result might be different with this area, but the set up is similar. See below.

September 2016 below.

Old post concerning Florida rain and tropical waves.

Link below:

http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2016/09/tropical-rains-florida-discussion.html

Fast forward to today.

Yellow X in the same spot as last year.

Low chances... a nod to it's presence.

Weak sign of vorticity.

Close up view of the area 

It does have a definitive twist on radar.

Below you can see the whole wide picture.

As the sunrises over the world

So let's go back to the beginning.

I said at the top today is a day to wait and watch.

But expect surprises as this has been the trend this year.

And to some degree last year.

Struggling waves, close in surprises.

99L is indeed dancing with the ULL.

The ULL won't let go.

If 99L can get away from the ULL.

The ULL will oddly help it breathe.

But until then they are entwined.

Again more worried on down the road than now.

At some point the road ends. 

Where an when?

Models below.

It is now where we thought it needed to be to do something.

Most believe now that this double entity known as 99L...

Will get caught up in the frontal boundary up the way.

Sort of a three some now and as usual the front wins out.

Time will tell.

Stay tuned.

Watch and wait.

If you are in the Carolinas enjoy the cool temps.

Mid 60s in Raleigh this morning.

Going up to mid 80s :)

Keep watching 99L and the ULL...

And don't ignore the area off of Florida.

As this year is the year of surprises close in..

..again.

AGAIN watch them dance in the loop below.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps... I know you want to know what's over Africa. Kind of quiet. Will tropical weather affect watching the eclipse on the 21st of August? Stay tuned. And watch waves that flare up later rather than sooner.