Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Monday, September 12, 2016

Tropical Rains Florida? Discussion. Invests, Shear, Low Water Temps and 94L Tries to Get a Name.

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Invest 94L is the only official game in town.
High probabilities by the NHC (90%)

Strong flare up of convection being blown away from center.
As I said yesterday it's a big, elongated system.
Trying to wrap into one tighter center.

There is another Invest close to Florida.
Still given low chances (10%)
The floater for that Invest (93L) has been deactivated.
But a heads up "we see it" yellow zone is there.

Combined with the remnants of 92L in the GOM

Hey we see it here on this site too...
Flaring up with convection.

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Ignored. Demoted.
Sent to the back of the class again.

When you add the moisture off the East coast...

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You end up with a soggy few days in South Florida.
And the SE coast in general.

That's a lot of rain.
Not a hurricane but a lot of rain.

A Low shows up on this map above in the GOM
GOM = Gulf of Mexico
A series of broken lines.. waves.
A stalled out front waiting for the next front.

Otherwise quiet.

Not much more to say here.

Truth is with this many viable waves ...
...normally we would have stronger tropical systems.
Tropical Storms for sure..
..possibly hurricanes.

Water temperatures are odd.
Odd for September.
Usually you see more orange and reds.
Mostly they are confined to the Caribbean.
The dangerous Loop Current barely is see in E GOM.
Considering it's so HOT in Florida it's surprising.
The site below is out of Tampa.
It's up at
Other sites on water temps exist there as well.

You need both a closed healthy center
Combined with very warm water for tropical development.

It changes often. Note it's very warm in the Bahamas close in.
IF something developed South of Cuba it would have fuel.

But shear has appeared here, there and everywhere this year.

The area near the Hebert Box in the Atlantic...
...has been owned by a shear zone.
You can see the teal blue reaching down in that area below:

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That's the area hurricanes usually form and pass through...
...on their way towards South Florida.
So Floridians need to send that shear a Thank You note.
Otherwise we would have had several landfalling named storms.

It is still possible that close in a system could flare up..
..but if it happens it wouldn't be much.
As I said 93L is there still in remnant rain
(like Fiona's remnants lingered)
And 92L has a signature as a closed Low.. 
.. missing the rain it needs.
Been a year of Invests and their remnants.

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Oddly the area along I-10 in LA, AL, MS and the Panhandle of FL..
...have had rain as a result for days off and on.
More than just the LA flooding it's been a wet time there.
But the Redneck Riviera's loss has been South Florida's gain.
Except South Florida is battling Zika.
And too much rain there could have longer lasting results ..
...than a fast passing Cat 1 Hurricane.

Every time I tell someone I'm going to Miami for a wedding..
...they ask me if I'm worried about Zika.
Putting a big dent in the tourist industry.
And for young women trying to get pregnant scary times.

Then again my Great Grandmother was ill often....
... from Malaria in Key West years back.
Worries me a bit we seem to be going backward not forward.

Nuff said ..

Keep watching.
I'll update with info on 94L IF NHC upgrades.

94L is visible.
It has a long tail reaching down to another tropical wave.
It's sucking moisture up currently.
Above it's hard to even make out Florida with all the moisture.
But you can definitely see the frontal boundary.

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Every year has it's own unique pros and cons in tropics.
This year shear from Upper Level Lows appears out of nowhere.
To stop Hurricanes from from forming.

Will that last?
Normally as you move deeper into Fall..
..things change.
Will that change?

Only time will tell.

Have a great week everyone!
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter


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