Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Thursday, September 08, 2016

93L Discussion & Anniversary of Galveston 1900 Hurricane .. HurricaneCity Blog By Jim Williams

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This morning the NHC introduced Invest 93L
The purpose of a designated Invest is to study it.
Models are initiated and a floater is activated.

We have been talking on Invests for years here on my blog.
They are not new, yet lately media has shown them often.
Perhaps that led to people misunderstanding.
The general public sees graphics usually saved for a Hurricane.
And to be fair it's been a slow few years
... every Invest gains more attention than in the past.

In 2006 I wrote about Invests online.
It's why people read my blog often.
An early heads up on a distant wave with potential.

I didn't hype them but I did highlight them ...

We are lucky to have this process...
...we are lucky to have eyes in the sky.
Satellite imagery.
Radar of all kinds.
Slice and dice every strong wave with possible potential.
The NRL site has a plethora of ways to study a system.
NRL does Invests, Tropical Depressions, Tropical Storms and Hurricanes.
The Invest is the first step in this process.

That's it.
I'd say more often than not they form.
But not always and often they do not.
In the past you didn't hear much about them...
..unless you read my blog or other sites online.

So now you know how it goes.

And how it goes without this process is seen below.
Today is the Anniversary of the 1900 Galveston Hurricane.

Key West got lucky in 1900. 
The 1900 Hurricane passed it by.
Came close but a miss is as good as a mile or more... 
Galveston not so lucky.

Father Benito Vines in Cuba did deal with the Hurricane directly.
The best Cuban meteorologist, a priest, made observations first hand.

But because of political complications during war...
...those observations were ignored.
As if they never existed.
Spanish American War... 

"With these main instruments, American meteorologists became the most advanced forecasters in the world. Their only problem, however, was finding their ways to produce the most accurate and detailed forecasts.
With the beginning of the National Weather Service, this attracted a man by the name of Father Benito Vines, a reverend whose ambition was to help the people of Cuba through the forces of nature. Father Vines came to Cuba in 1870 at the Royal College of Belen, in Havana. A NWS station was there and after seeing many violent hurricanes before his eyes, he decided it was time to help those who are not fully aware."

.. from the article shown above.

And the beautiful, bustling port of Galveston never really saw it coming.
No Invest.
No Tropical Depression.
No discussion from the NHC.
No advisories or cones or wind probabilities.
No Tropical Updates on TWC.
No Internet or Twitter.
No surge forecasts.

It's incredible to have video from Thomas Edison himself who sent a crew with his new gadget that recorded movies to Galveston in 1900 after the Hurricane moved on...

Next time you are upset NHC can't pin down landfall in 5 days.
Know before the cone came along....
... people were washed away with little warning.
Mothers, brothers and children were sucked out of their homes.
Bad times.

Galveston was a BIG city in those days.
It was THE premier city in those parts.
One of the main ports of entry to the US.
Big, busy, beautiful Galveston.
Before the Hurricane of 1900

From the History Channel.
Galveston was a boom town at the turn of the Century.

Long video so sit a spell and watch.
Save it for when you don't want nightmares.
Don't say I didn't warn you..

Aside from the best selling book Isaac's Storm.
There have been books both non-fiction and fiction written...
I've read many.  Some thoughts left out in Isaac's Storm.
Some never confirmed and only so much you can put in a book.
Word was that Isaac's brother was in love with Isaac's wife.
Not in the way where they had an affair...
..just loved her and he was devastated after her death.
Word is that they never spoke after the Galveston Hurricane.
The famous book hints at it but doesn't really go there.
But many have written about it.
The story in Issac's Storm is... the Storm.

You might want to read some books available online.

Just a few below:

There is always a story behind the story.
And that is the way of life.

So you want to know what will happen with Invest 93L?
Can't tell you yet.
It's in an area of shear and was not forecast to develop much.
It beat the odds so it needs to be watched.
If it develops early thought is it would go out to sea.
All of the models don't agree.
Big surprise huh?

Obviously some models do not take it out to sea.
Good things conditions are not favorable..

Intensity forecast below

We call this the Orange Juice Loop.
It's an inside joke from
We've been watching this loop for years.
It gets an orange roll going and then red..
Then watch out for lift off...

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Jim Williams runs that site and is the editor
His word from his site.
He is the creator and a forecaster without a degree.
But he has a huge following who trust him.
Why do they trust him?
Because he has been very on the money for years.
Knows hurricane history and tropical meteorology.
He's a numbers person. Statistics.

He put out a blog today about Hermine and the NHC.
A good read and a look at how the models performed.

Jim is considered an expert.
He has been on panels with Max Mayfield.

That's Jim on the left.
Think he actually went fishing with Max after this event.
Or another event. 

So as he said in his blog today:

" On a final note the NHC track forecast cone is the best tool for figuring out where a system will go especially short range but it is time to eliminate the poor performing models and start more funding for the better ones starting with the GFS."

I agree totally.
Read his blog post it's a good read and true.

Lots of Hurricane History on his site.

What will happen?
This is just one model.
Many show a similar resolution for today's waves.

One forms and busts through the High Pressure.
Creating a path for the next wave.

I'm not going to get into the he said, she said GFS vs EURO.

We can discuss that later tonight IF 93L still poses a problem.
And though the NHC is not bullish on 93L ...
...they are bullish down the road on the next wave.

You can see the model above showing this pattern.
20% in 5 day for 93L
60% for the African Wave

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Again 93L is not expected to develop right now.

Then again it was not expected to be an Invest.

So... keep watching!

And know the NHC is always watching.
Sadly in 1900 we did not know what we know now...
...sadly Father Benito knew but he was ignored.
And either way hindsight is 20/20.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps Today Galveston is a beautiful tourist destination.
The port traffic moved up inland to Houston.
It's still a beautiful place to visit.
But only for storm chasers in a hurricane.


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