Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Thursday, September 08, 2016

Surprise Invest 93L Forms from Sneay Tricky Wave Near Islands... 94L May be Further Behind like the Caboose Riding Low... Going Where??

Last night I posted this picture on Twitter for a reason.
The reason being it was obvious things were going on ....
...but no real discussion from official places on reality vs modeling.

Generally the models have gotten good at picking up on development.
The powers that be use the models for forecasting.
They like when the models agree on development.

Earlier in the year a wave was forecast chosen by models to be hot.
The HOT wave fizzled and the lead wave flared up.

Remember when 96L was the BIG Invest.
The models preferred that wave.
Didn't even really pick up on what would be 97L?
But 97L grabbed the ball and ran with it.

That's why the quarterback sneak is a great play...
..especially when the Defensive Line doesn't see it coming.
Other wise the QB gets slammed to the ground.
But when they expect the QB to throw long to star receiver..
...but he does a QB sneak and picks up big yardage.
Later he does it again and makes a touchdown.
And you did they not see that coming?

Sort of where the NHC is this morning with Invest 93L

It was obvious to me watching the wave train...
... a few that were not being talked on were developing.
One was bound to pop.

Some years models work perfect in concert with forecasters own thoughts and forecasting is fairly easy. Other years it is as if there is a missing component models are not picking up on or we just have an obnoxious family of waves this year that do not like to play by the rules or listen to reason. Earl for example... Hermine another example and Colin that never lived up to the model's adoration.

Not that we don't love the NHC.
I know I do...
 ...but they have parameters.
Many online have appreciated sites and do their thing.
Their thing being posting info on things they see..

Mariners and residents in the Islands have used this site for years.
And appreciated it and so showing it.
As the people who speak on and post observations.
A lot of great info out there online.
It may not be the bottom line but it's a good line on the tropics.

This morning Invest 93L was introduced near the islands.

Possibly areas where these will develop...

The one that did not become 93L is in the rear back there...
Coming in Lower probably going to be a pain in the butt...

I'll be back later today with more thoughts on models.
Note I am posting this before TWC has spoken much on it.
I haven't read the thoughts online yet beyond the reality...
...people were waiting on it to be noticed.

Twitter is great really.
Real time discussion.

I'm a bit busy in Wedding politics...
...holding my thoughts with some people.
Though I did lose it on Whatsapp ...
..some child has me full of F Bombs losing it.
And then I felt better.
Imagine he will keep that to laugh at when depressed.
Probably way after I'm gone.
Sorry to be morbid but still feel badly on Dave Schwartz passing.
And a few other people I know passed recently.
Hey Invest 92L passed again for the second time.
Sorry meteorology humor.

Before and after of the new Invest

I am not wearing that dress but I wish I was...
... not really a Mother of the Groom dress ya know?

Time to get back to the basics in the tropics.
When models are not handling development well.. what is there and work with it.

wv-animated.gif (1120×480)

Hopefully when a hurricane forms down the line...
...the models will fall in line and do a better job.

And make the lives of the good people at the NHC much easier.

Oh Happy Birthday Jim Williams (Hurricane City)
And.. Hesh... one of my good writing friends :)

Besos BobbiStorm

Ps Thanks to my many friends online for helping...
..put up with my moods.
Meyer Family Events get crazy...
...Cuban Colombian .. Modern Lubavitch Wedding.

Not even sure how many people are coming....
... half of us aren't sure what we are wearing in 10 days.
But hey the models can't be sure what weather we will have..


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