Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Saturday, September 03, 2016

Updated! Hermine Labor Day Weekend .. 92L ... Thoughts on New African Wave .. No Invest Yet but Models Running.

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Hermine Off the Mid Atlantic.
Killing Labor Day for many.
A nuisance for some.
Misery for others in areas prone to flooding.
An annoyance for days.

How this blog will go is..
Hermine at the top for those worried
And many are worried.
92L and the African Wave Train at the bottom.

Post Tropical Cyclone Hermine... 
Almost Hurricane Force Winds.
70 MPH
Forecast to stall out and sit off the coast for days.

We are now in the round part of the old cone.
Just the ice cream.
No cone.
Speaking of Ice Cream...'s kind of cold up there.
Not very tropical.

And hey TWC it's not really CHARGING...
It's moving and about to slow down and stall.
Anchor itself somewhere for days.
Hermine is spending Labor Day Weekend there.

How would you like to look at your NWS forecast and see this?

I added arrows to show where the water will come in and pile up.
Well at High Tide.. every day.
For days...


And it's not moving ... 

That's a prolonged period of high winds
Eventually tree limbs break.
Water gets into basements near the ocean.
Power goes out when enough tree limbs break.
Kids begin to get a bit crazy wanting to go to the park.

This storm has a whole large part of the US population ...
...going to go stir crazy at best
At worst dealing with days of wind and high surf.
And the best part of is... one is sure what is going to happen exactly.

Locals in that area NYC are being told:
Monday seems to be the Main Event they say...
Then again no one is sure...
How totally annoying.
How totally real. 

In truth if Hermine goes West vs East...
Everyone needs to do what they are told.
Hunker down, hang out, Stay inside.

Everyone is also discussing the naming of it.
Post Tropical Cyclone... 
It's a storm with 70 MPH winds...
..forecast to have hurricane winds.

It's more a wind storm with high surf.
Less tropical downpours.
Wind. High Surf.

You will hear a lot of "pressure gradient"
True but in the end it's the result.

The name is not really important.
After taking heat for dropping the word Hurricane from Sandy.
The rules changed and the NHC was allowed to continue...
...issuing advisories rather than hand off to the NWS.
Good call!!

Think of this like grapes.
In NC every store is advertising a different grape on sale.
Moon Drop Grapes.
Cotton Candy Grapes.
Along with your regular Green and Concord Variety.

Let's not get lost in the names...
They are grapes.

This is a storm with winds near Hurricane force.
It's dangerous and disrupts the normal flow of life.

Don't get lost in the details or explanations of the name.

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And don't get lost in the appearance.
It's a storm with close to hurricane force winds.
High surf is going to mess up the beaches.
The Beaches are closed...
Go to the movies. Watch Netflix.
Maybe next Labor Day Weekend.

And down in the Caribbean is a wave.
A wave with low a yellow circle moving towards the islands.

Another view on the wide open satellite image.

Check that out... 
..oh the one close to the Islands.

The one by Africa should be Invest 93L
Not there yet.

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92L Models

It will move through the Islands soon and bring some squally weather.

Models intensify it down the line.
Lucky for the NHC...

Why am I not going crazy about this?
For one the models aren't in love with it...
..the NHC gives is a low chance in the next 5 days.
30% to be exact.
Tomorrow we might see an orange circle.

What I am MORE concerned about is the wave behind it.

The one that has no circle.
The one the models do develop.
The one that has no name.

(if you like horror movies...)

That's somewhere around Bimini.
I like to say if you are bulls eye on the 10 day.. probably will not get the storm.
That's the 90th Anniversary of the 1926 Hurricane.
For Hurricane History Buffs.
Look at that wave train behind it.
That's the GFS.
EURO is not doing well this year.
The normally conservative GFS is looking like the CMC..

EURO is below:

September 13th..
..on it's way to intensifying.
With it's little friends behind it.

The reason I am posting this is........

Hermine is the current story.
At some point Hermine will move on.
Hopefully not into NY Harbor......
...but Out to Sea.

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(last frame far right...)

Keep watching down the road.
Especially inf you live in Florida ...
...or along the GOM.
Rumor has it 92L could get into the GOM.
Stays weak like Hermine maybe...
...then crawls in from the South into GOM.

But that bad boy off the coast of Africa...
... models doing some nasty things with it.
So let's hope the models are wrong..
And the shear that hurt Hermine... there to battle with Ian and Julia.

Stay tuned.

As for me I had a nice evening last night.
Steady rain in Raleigh.
Some wind... 
I left the windows open a bit to listen.
In the morning it was cool and breezy.
Small pine branches on the ground.
Bright green ones so must have been one strong squall.
Went to Temple, enjoyed the breeze.
Cooler air for a few days.

In NY my kids are waiting to see what will be with Hermine.
And oh I'm not telling the Miami kids about Ian or Julia.
That will be our little secret.

Close up of the African Wave in stealth mode..

Wedding in Miami .. September 18th.
Knowing my family with weather or not.

Cute pic of my grandson in NY.
He's already a storm chaser ;)
That's my daughter's back yard...

The daughter I usually go take pics with of storms.
Her street floods easily.
So will see what Hermine has in store for them.
Yes I'm watching.

But really watching the next waves.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter



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