Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Wednesday, August 31, 2016

Hermine Track Pulled West at 5 PM. Check Back Every 6 Hours. From FL to NE .. Capital Cities Inland All in 5 Day Track.

5 PM 

I know everyone wants to talk about the Cone.
3 Day most reliable.
Takes it from Gulf of Mexico to NC VA Line.
Nearing the Chesapeake.

Then it slows down and stalls a bit off shore NJ ..
...South of NY as a weather maker.
Not so much a Hurricane or TS but weather maker.
Actually the map shows a S designating a Storm.

I'm going to call this the Capital Express Storm.

Tallahassee near land fall
Georgia ..some rain near Atlanta maybe.
Columbia SC
Raleigh NC 
Richmond VA

The Amtrak Silver Star should have problems.
Takes an inland path...
Silver Meteor for that matter too
Airports in those cities and near by will be impacted.
Check if you are traveling.

This really is a huge mess if the track verifies.

Check your city for wind probs.

I'm at 50 for now.

You can see that inland track NHC forecast.

What I like about him is he's unique, does a good job.

Shows difference from old NHC map.

So I'm using Raleigh as an example in the middle.
But this is the same for many places.
That's a big change in track.

Is it right?
Will it verify?

I'll feel better tomorrow at this time if it's following the track.
So far Hermine has not been a team player.

This is the map of the area most likely to be affected by landfall.
BUT... most of N and W Florida will be affected by weather.

See how they overlay.

I've always thought it would be hard this time of year.. make such a hard right turn.
Apalachicola area most logical.
Weather will be bad EAST of landfall!!

I want to look back a bit.

The 40% big wave is early Hermine.
It was a huge wave coming off of Africa.
Contracted under SAL's influence.
Refused to give up .... that it's intensifying its becoming big again.
I said days ago this had a classic Cape Verde look.

Don't look at the center or appearance.
Look at the RAIN SHIELD

Just think how much moisture there is here.

rb-animated.gif (720×480)

It's not just about storm surge at the beach that the "eye" crosses.
It's about the whole kit and kaboodle 
(Did I spell that right)
It's the whole shebang.

This is a 5 course meal:

Power Outages possible.

And it's going to affect many metropolitan areas..
IF the track and forecast verify.

Why do I emphasize this?
Because rarely has it ever followed a track exactly.
And at some point the cold front comes down..
Steering currents may collapse a bit.
And that may happen up South of Long Island.
It could be extratropical ...
It could just be weather.
But "just weather" created flooding along the GOM.
Will it stall when NHC says...
...or earlier off VA or Del Marva?

Just keep watching.

IF Hermine doesn't follow the program.
The NHC will pull the track to the left or right.

Their discussion?

Salient points highlighted

And note their Intensity forecast

Read through that and see the shaded area.

What do you do if you are in Day 2 or Day 3 ?
Day 4 or Day 5?

Wes in Raleigh just told his viewers ... remember to check on the storm every 6 hours.
Every 6 hours the NHC updates their cone.
It's that simple folks.

sat_wv_east_loop-12.gif (640×512)

You can see the dry air.
You can see the SW to NE line that Hermine will follow.
You can see the front digging down.

Keep watching.

Please follow your local advice.
The local mets and NWS know your unique problems.

Valdosta, GA has it's problems.
N Florida and Georgia have many big oak trees.
Hardwood trees snap and come down.
Palm trees bend, hardwoods break.
Especially if the ground is wet in advance of the wind.
They come down on cars, houses and people.
That can be and often is deadly.
Being deadly serious.
Find a safe spot inside the house during the storm.

Areas along the coast have coastal flooding.
Sandbags or whatever you need to do to protect your home.

When trees go down power goes out.

Tornadoes can be a problem in this storm.
Up the coast along I 95 ...
...if you plan to travel rethink it..

This site covers the highways.
It's an interesting site but it's good for travelers.

This storm could track up I-95
Small roads, all roads.

Every person reading this has their own needs.

Older relatives...
Some live in a house and others apartments.

This track by the NHC covers so many people.
Each person has their own unique needs.

My advice:
Make a list of what are YOUR priorities.
Focus on them.
Get money out of an ATM.
Get any meds you need.
Get some food and things to stay home.
Hunker down. 
Watch TWC.
Listen to the radio if cable goes out (got batteries?)

Do what you got to do.

I'll be back later with any updates.

Hermine is forecast to move 7 mph.
Will it move 7 mph?

ft-animated.gif (720×480)

Stay tuned.

First thing we will see is rain.
So going to leave this song here.

We can focus on the African Wave when it looks viable. (surf reports)

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter ... I'm there all the time.. 

Ps Check for Live Feeds from Mike's Weather Page.
He does them randomly.
He posts them on Twitter.
He's developing a close community of fans.
And the fans interact in comments in real time.
Very 2016... 


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