Tropical Storm Hermine. Please Use NWS For YOUR Local Area As Well as NHC. Take it 1 Day At A Time in 4th 5th Day of Cone Please.

Officially Hermine

Visible loop below:

Wider View:

Track:

Note the problem with NE bound GOM systems is...

... the rain is far out ahead of the center.

Going to update later with more information.

Nothing much has changed other than it has a name.

A much deserved name.

Look at that blow up in the GOM.

Also note convection up near Carolinas now..

Storm Surge:

NOTE.. WARNING..

This shows landfall storm surge. 

Follow NWS for local coverage in N Florida.

Example.. this exits by Jacksonville...

...they need to prepare as well.

NWS is incredible.

Tallahassee, Savannah, Ocala.

www.weather.gov

They have YOU covered.

But you got to go to them and see what they say.

NHC is great. 

NWS covers local problems.

Use them please!

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

1st concern:

Florida:

Torcon of 7 with high chances of Twisters.

Flooding up and down both sides of FL coast.

Heavy rains over low lying areas.

Many parts of W Florida are bayous, swamps.

Bays, beaches all low lying.

Wind damage dependent upon eventual intensity.

2nd concern:

Georgia and Carolinas.

All depends on eventual track Hermine takes.

Further off shore less of a flooding problem.

Further West and there could be inland flooding.

Appalachian mountains add in rain totals.

Hilly areas down stream prone to flooding.

I'm mildly concerned it could slow down or stall.

Not in forecast but it hasn't been good at following forecast.

3rd concern:

Virginia .. NORTH

Again dependent on track it takes...

Do not panic and avoid hype on NY NJ NE scenarios.

Let's deal with Florida first.

After seeing what it does the next 2 days will tell the tale.

It's only going 2 mph now after a long stall.

This forecast is reliant upon getting the timing right.

Intensity forecasting is not perfect.

The white 3 day track is generally right.

The 5 day shaded track is a strong maybe.

Note it's wide on the 5th day.

That's a wide, wide cone so take it one day at a time.

Again if it goes slower than expected.

It could miss it's ticket out of town... 

Watch forward speed with Hermine.

I'll be back later with more model discussion.

If you CURRENTLY have watches or warnings.

Please take them seriously.

Do what you got to do.

Sandbags, food, medication, batteries, first aid.

Crayons for kids.. new toys.

IF the forecast is correct Hermine will move faster.

Keep watching.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter