Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Monday, August 29, 2016

UPDATED!!TD9 Ready for Upgrade to TS Status? African Wave As I Promised. Long Range Possibilities. GFS

5 PM Neither TD were upgraded.
Close but no cigar.

NHC stands by their Tropical Depressions.
They insist both are expected to be Tropical Storms.
That could change but that's the headline.

People keep asking me how TD 9 makes the turn.
There seems to be no massive cold front.
It's late August.
Why does it turn.
Please watch Tropical Tidbits video tonight.
Levi Cowan explains the why behind the forecast.
He explains how the ULL moving inland around Georgia.
Is making an opening door for TD 9 to head NE.

Down near Savannah, Georiga.
Look on the Water Vapor Loop

wv-animated.gif (720×480)

Watch the video. 
He makes it make sense...

He also points out that if TD 9 gets in the GOM..
..the strongest convection should be to the left.

Something to keep in mind.

Meanwhile TD 9 remains messy.
Elongated center.
Multiple vortexes.
Lower shear.
Opportunity to come together.
Intensify a little.
Still watching.

When you look at this wide view.
You can see Hurricane Gaston.

Don't need recon to know that's a cyclone.
There is a strong tropical wave coming off Africa.

There's our TD 9 down near Cuba.
A small TD 8 near OBX NC
A lot of convection in the GOM.
Mucho aqua in the atmosphere.
Being a bit silly here.

That's blown up segment from the wide view.

Let's look close up at the GOM
And look at convection building by TD 9

You can see the ULL near Georgia.
Convection near Texas.
Convection building over center of TD 9

wv-animated.gif (720×480)

Waiting again on upgrade from NHC.
The ball is in their court.

All 3 tropical cyclones make a hard right turn.
As if they are pointing to say 2 PM.
NE "ish" as we say these days.

Also keep in mind for the next day or so...
...TD 9 would be moving slowly.

That's our tropical world today.

Near Africa a new wave is Invest 92L
We have been hearing about this wave for days.

Stay tuned....

Will update if the NHC upgrades.
Sweet Tropical Dreams... 

Keep reading thoughts from earlier this afternoon.
And love this view.
There's more out there than just TD 9

 H * I * H * I

2 PM Update on TD 9

Note the cone shows it going out to sea.
It's behaving and going NW as forecast.

Started off there as there are watches up.
Therefore there is a 2 PM advisory.

For those of you who don't believe this is a system.
You are wrong. 
And it is forecast by the NHC to intensify some.

Actually some convection over the center.
You can see some bands curving around.
Lower Level Center looks better than TD 9 
Though TD 9 is firing up more convection.

vis_lalo-animated.gif (720×480)

It is forecast to become a tropical storm as of 11 AM Discussion.

Note also the waves on the coast are also from Gaston.

sat_ir_east_loop-12.gif (640×512)

The waves from Gaston are propelled towards the coast.
Add in TD 8

I was there yesterday.
They had an urgency you don't usually feel.
A louder noise than they should have had.
Waves were not that big but they were loud.

Okay looking at the loop above you see increased convection by TD 9

Going in closer

ft_lalo-animated.gif (720×480)

Putting on a show today. 
Look for lime greens in the reds.
This convection is to the South of the center.
SE of the center.
Putting on our Xray glasses we go to the visible.

I put together this image for you for a reason.
What seems months ago...
...when this wave rolled off Africa it was huge.
Over time it became small.
IF it was to develop it would, could become big again.
Also could become one of those messy baroclinic sort of storms.
Leaning to the right in the Eastern GOM
Center could come on shore further North...
..and to the South along the coast they could have the worst weather.
Tornadoes with this type of Tropical Storm are plentiful often.

Earl in 1998 was made fun of often.
Poor presentation.

Some images above of Earl.
NHC has already used the B word in discussion.
So it's something to think on.
A Tropical storm doesn't have to be pretty..
..they usually aren't.
But they can cause misery even mishaped 

vis_lalo-animated.gif (720×480)

Based on it's steady progress all day.
I wouldn't be surprised to see it get a name at 5 PM
You can see the spin, the look and the feel of a TS.

Hard to see but the real center is to the NW of the convection.

That being said... 
...while staring at those tropical cones.
Remember the center does not have to take the middle.
It can wiggle about within that predicted path.

The steering currents are a bit crazy.
Normally a track like this comes later in October.
But I put up Earl, an August storm, to show you it can happen.

Gaston is Gaston out at sea. Nuff Said.
Could cause some high seas for ships that need to be careful.

Everyone wants to know about the African Wave.
The NHC gave it high odds and it hasn't left the coast.

Actually has a yellow x for the 2 day.. 
It's a well developed Cape Verde Wave.
It's within climo.
And..the MJO is moving into place.
When MJO is present it's easier to have tropical development.

Not the best wave.
Has dry air to it's NW.
That may stop it from being named earlier...
.. and getting further West.
Models take it into the Islands.
Some take it further North.
Some take it further South.
We've been here before.
The High is forecast to be strong.
Shear is always an invariable...

On AUGUST 22nd, 2016 I posted this:

That was TD 9 in early long range models.

Note the Euro was right.
GFS said it would develop "on approach to FL Keys"
And that is about where we are today.
Who knew the GFS would beat the Euro?
Some did and there were some adjustments made this year.
It also performed well in the Epac.

So what does GFS say for this storm next?

Land fall on the NW Florida coast.

Go back and look at the track from Earl 1998.


Keep watching.

Friday Sept 9th on the GFS model.

African Wave.

Shows it where TD 9 is now as a strong storm

Similar landfall.

Is that a pattern?
Will it change ?
(most likely) 
They change often.
So far GFS doing better than expected.
So keep watching.
Oh and there's another wave behind it.
Because it's hurricane season.

Tropical Weather is best done in real time.


But they give us a heads up to pay attention to the tropics.
And we should be doing that every day during Hurricane Season

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps.. I'll be updating later today.
Especially if TD 9 gets it's expected upgrade.
Been expecting it for what seems forever...
Posting the always wonderful NRL map.


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