2PM NHC Lowers Chances a Bit 40% in 2 Day, 70% in 5 Day ..

New graphic shows red area pulled further West.

Think it could have been pulled further South but not my call.

Discussion and reasoning from NHC is below

Watch the area around 19N - 20N  that is where the "center" is ...

Again it may have multiple centers.

While over land it's hard to be sure.

Sort of throbs like an old fashioned rock song.

UP, down.. UP ... OUT.. down.. UP

Seems to do best at night.

Visible image.

Being honest it's a mess.

And it's sitting hovered over Hispaniola...

..so it's normal that it's a mess.

I've said several times I think it could stay weak.

I've said several times it could go West over Cuba.

Or it could get into the Florida Straits westbound.

The more time it spends over land the weaker it gets.

IF the convection was wrapping around the center it would be better.

The convection is sheared off in different directions.

Newest Euro has it here sort of stuck.

That big storm to it's ENE is Gaston.

Keep that in mind but should go out to sea.

Water Vapor Loop makes it hard to find Hispaniola.

All you see is 99L trying to spin.

See the strong, diving ULL between 99L and Gaston?

Really pushing at it. 

Land interaction hurting it.

Barely moving though NHC says 15 to 20 MPH

I'd say way closer to 15 at the most.

Almost anchored over Hispaniola.

Also note to the NNW of 99L the ridge is building.

Of course IF it gets into the Florida Straits.

Or it gets into GOM the ridge could be gone then.

But at this point it looks to like Hispaniola a lot.

So for now what do you do?

You go on about life in South Florida.

You take this time to review your hurricane plans.

Do what you are supposed to do..

Live, love and try to be happy.

And monitor 99L for word it may have developed.

If the NHC lowers chances more at 8PM

You could as some of my friends say stick a fork in it.

If they remain the same keep watching.

There is still a strong chance a tropical cyclone could form.

70% in the 5 day is nothing to laugh off.

It has to move off Hispaniola. 

And it has to avoid Cuba.

For now no watches or warnings.

99L may be on life support.

Or it may surprise us tomorrow.

It does have a vortex that has traveled from Africa.

Hard to count it out until it's gone.

Keep watching.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter updating in real time.

Ps Check back for updates. 

I may upload a song ;)

And do not forget about Gaston.