99L Still 80% Waiting on Recon. Is Hermine Forming? 64 BILLION DOLLAR QUESTION

8 AM Discussion:

Note the planes are going in to try and get a better handle on 99L

Possibly they can find a center... can't be ruled out.

But it's partially over land and that interferes with everything.

Tropical systems begin over water.

A Low over Louisiana was not a Tropical Cyclone.

That is why it did not get a name.

After 99L gets off of Hispaniola and over water.

We will see for sure what it's got under the hood.

Spoiler alert it could get over East Cuba.

Or it could sit a bit in the Florida Straits and intensify.

If it develops one strong center.

Note some times when they come off land...

..the "center" sort of bounces ... shows up not where it is expected.

I never liked the dangerous scenario the EURO showed.

Because a strong hurricane would break through the ridge.

A strong storm would want to go more North.

As I wrote in last night's post.

The GFS though murky at times has it's value.

How strong is that ridge and how long will it last?

Currently we have a strong tropical wave.

A tropical wave with strong tropical storm force winds.

But no closed center.

We also have a Hurricane that is being ignored.

Gaston has hit Hurricane strength.

The hurricane is noticeable. 

Invest 99L is a kinky wave...

You can see 99L above.

I hate to say this but you just gotta wait...

It may develop close in around Andros Island.

Or it may wander along the Old Bahama Channel near Cuba.

This is your map for today.

Finger of Florida dipping down into tropical waters.

Cuba. Bahamas. Hispaniola.

This is where Invest 99L is hanging out.

Maybe hiding like a pirate of old in some bay somewhere.

Waiting to make it's move.

Gaston the Pirate!!

Not all tropical storms form in the same way. Some roll off the coast of Africa, take a plane down with it over Senegal and roll on to infamy. Others form, fall apart, intensify again when they hit warmer water past 55 West. Some lolly gag their way across the basin from day with a sense of purpose, slam through the Islands killing people and causing destruction and then curving gracefully up towards their chosen city of landfall. See the track for Hugo below. Hermine, another H storm, is not Hugo in any way. There are some models that show it escaping through a break in the trough and moving towards the Carolinas, but most models currently take it towards some part of Florida. Other storms come low through the Caribbean and then oddly turn North, zig zagging a bit and heading North. Each storm is different but they are all subject to the same influences both positive and negative. We are still in search of the H storm for 2016.

Hugo 1989

Hazel 1954

I used those two storms as they are both H storms.

One formed far away by Africa.

One formed close to the Islands.

Now coming back to our area in question.

Last night a strong area of convection developed.

Red is strong, Green is STRONGER.

Watch for the Green.

Watch for the two areas to wrap once it comes over water.

Once it comes over warm water.

To the North of this area is lower levels of shear.

Shear there but not as strong.

The water closer to the Keys is much warmer.

So which exact track does it take?

Interaction with Cuba would delay long term intensity.

Hovering over the Bahamas could create intensity.

There is a ridge coming down now currently.

How long does it stay strong is the question?

Also note the TUTT digging down...

They can be game changers.

They can take all the energy out of a system.

Too much interference.

And sometimes in the right spot they intensify it.

It's all about timing and all about location.

Maybe we are watching Hermine come together now.

Much is up to Invest 99L...

I don't mean that in a touchy feely, New Age way.

I mean that if it develops a good center.

The center becomes vertically aligned...

...and it's able to intensify.

Banding? Outflow?

Then we will have Hermine.

Til then we have Invest 99L

I'll update later today after the planes send back data.

After recon tells us what it finds.

For now.. I got to make new coffee :(

My Nespresso went cold while I was looping.

Happens.

Keep watching...

The GFS and EURO have come to some agreement.

They both see a track near South Florida.

Their landfall circles almost agree.

They disagree on intensity.

And the rest of the track.

Combing models make you feel you are staring at a Picasso.

Models coming together

Picasso .. you be the judge.

Now back to 99L and the flow around our system.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/wv-animated.gif

For everyone asking about the models.

A good link to use and play with is below:

http://hurricanecity.com/models/

Use it. 

You can click on different models with Google Maps.

Doesn't get much easier than that.

I put the Google Map next to it to show how great this tool is..

I put in the TCVN a model Jim Williams talks on often.

It showed a landfall near Hollywood Florida

That's JUST ONE MODEL...

I used it as an example.

You can do it with multiple models:

Hollywood Beach Florida recently got a Margaritaville.

A lot of new development along the beautiful boardwalk.

I love Hollywood Beach 

One of my favorite hang outs.

It's just ONE model.

But a good performing model. 

So keep it in mind.

That said I'm worried a bit on Florida Keys.

If it stays weak.. would take a lower track.

We will talk on the GOM scenario later.

I don't want to count out the possibility it stays south weak.

Wanders through the very warm waters of the Florida Keys.

Into the Gulf of Mexico. 

Could happen.

Also the models are found on www.tropicaltidbits.com

He also updates with a video that's excellent.

Top Left on www.spaghettimodels.com

Great links, use them and often Mike adds good ones.

Note the radar below added recently.

Remember IF the NHC has validation of a closed system..

..it will upgrade and post a cone.

Til then keep in mind it's there if you live in South Florida.

Or anywhere in Florida.

Besos BobbiStorm 

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps. As Stephanie Abrams explained earlier about the GFS Euro Models.

You get what you pay for the there is more $$ spent on the EURO

The GFS could use more $$ to be more accurate.