A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!
Tuesday, August 23, 2016
TS Gaston Intensifying. Recon Goes into 99L Stay #HurricaneStrong & Always Be Prepared. Why We Show Models Without Hype... Keep Watching.
Looking at this loop above you would think there are 2 storms out there.
Sometimes what you see is an illusion.
Fiona is still with us as a weak tropical depression.
We laugh that off as she is on the wane.
In truth she has a name.
99L does not.
Gaston is a Tropical Storm.
Watch for that to become a hurricane symbol in time.
Going to start with Fiona as she's the oldest here.
She really deserves a little respect.
Against all odds .....
Her cone is going East of Bermuda.
Fiona has a cone. Might not later so showing it.
The moisture associated with the TS formerly known as Fiona..
...may be a player down the road.
It may get picked up by the next front.
The next front is weak.
Where does the ridge form.
Might just go poof.
But putting it out there it's interesting.
She's practically naked as they say.
Her convection has gone South. SSW
Keep that in mind as the GFS does some funky things with her.
As the GFS is in detention we aren't allowed to discuss it today.
Invest 99L has been here longer than Gaston so here goes.
First going to show the first image in this loop.
Invest 99L AKA Tropical Wave
Is that the center down there near 15 N?
Look again, latest image from the loop.
Or is the center up near 17 N?
Is there a "center"
Here's the loop:
Finding the exact center is important for models to verify.
Also can change the extrapolated position of Hermine down the road.
Should Hermine really develop from this as most believe it will.
Split the difference and say the center is around 16 N.
This shows 99L to be an open wave.
Fiona clear. Gaston stunning.
Let's see what recon finds.
Models are interesting but not totally reliable.
Recon has left to fly into 99L.
We will get more better data as we say Down South
I probably would have waited until tomorrow...
..or at least later in the day.
Doesn't look there yet.
A bit concerned that it's not properly aligned vertically.
Possibly a weak lower level center trying to develop...
...and a mid level center or twist not quite above it.
Needs to stack properly.
Typical of a large wave with possible competing areas of convection.
...all trying to be the center.
Sort of push me pull me problem.
Time will tell.
Warm water becomes amply available.
Should become Hermine according to the models.
Time will tell...
Intensity forecast is shown below along with another model set.
Look carefully at that intensity guidance.
Some take this to a solid Cat 2 Hurricane at some point.
One that breaks from the pack goes Major.
Not easy to digest while watching Invest 99L in motion.
So I want you to watch the larger water vapor loop ..
..and watch the pocket around the convection.
Should that fill in we could have a big hurricane.
If not we have a weak, struggling tropical wave.
Weak struggling waves do not get to party on South Beach.
TD Fiona up to it's NW struggling.
Gaston rolling behind it forecast to be a Major by most.
Looking close to hurricane status now on visible imagery.
Let's look fast at Gaston now and you can see why.
We will come back to 99L after that.
Really beautiful Tropical Storm
50 MPH Winds
Moving WNW at 20 MPH
Current projected track keeps it out to sea..
Winds will be upgraded soon.
Look at that little twisting thing near it's tail.
Not important right now.
Invest 99L is important to talk about.
This is not a CONE from the NHC.
It's the projected area that 99L could develop within.
Gets confusing but there is a difference.
Yes often cones later overlay this shaded area.
Sometimes the wave doesn't make it.
Goes off life support.. (warning to Fiona..)
And it goes back to yellow.
Or up to red.
It's just guide to show you where a storm may form.
That's a paragraph from www.crownweather.com
Check Rob out he is very good.
Been around a long time.
Has a pay service.
He wants people to know that in a few days.
The environment around 99L in the Bahamas changes.
It becomes a very positive environment for intensification.
Intensification close in with a track aimed at Florida.
That's currently at Florida based on last few model runs.
Watch the trend in models.
Some models have been hitting further up the coast vs Miami.
And many have taken this into the Gulf of Mexico.
A suggested second landfall in Big Bend or Alabama.
BobbiStorm's Bottom Line:
Keep monitoring this Invest for signs of development.
Check back here often.
Check with your local weather experts.
As the weatherman in NC said.
It's too soon to say what it's exact track will be.
Some people complain we put tracks up on social media. Deal with it! It's 2016. The information is out there available to anyone. I'd rather show it and give my thoughts. Modify the panic at 180 miles out at the landfall city shown on one run of the GFS or EURO. It's good to show the models. People feel some sense of control over one of Mother Nature's most dangerous commodities. A strong, major hurricane is akin to a nuclear bomb going off. Once you have been there you never forget it. For those who have never been there ask someone who has and you may get a glimmer of how bad it can be.
If you see people grabbing water at Publix ask why.. Might be a sale? Maybe local water line broke and you didn't get that memo. Possibly a storm out there coming closer. Seriously no one ever died from looking at a long range model, but 13 people died in Louisiana from flooding that was not properly advertised to the local population. Sad a weather system has to be "sold" but people are people and they would rather live in denial than believe a hurricane or flood really could happen to them.
While shopping for Andrew people were grabbing up ice cream and frozen food. They told me insistently Hurricane David turned, they all turn, this one will too! It didn't turn. And to those of you who are here because you got burned by a storm that didn't turn, didn't catch the trof or a ridge came undone I'll always be honest with you. I'll also tell you if I think a model may be wrong or if there is too much hype going on. The NHC does not send planes into hype, they send planes into tropical waves that have the potential for becoming a named storm. The NHC tries to give you the best predictive package it can to best prepare you to stay #HurricaneStrong. Check them out on Twitter with that Hashtag.
Now want you to look at this model below.
Close up below shows 3 possible scenarios.
It falls apart and goes SW ??
I'd go more with West or even WSW but that's what it said.
It takes a track across PR through the Bahamas.
Note that would give it some interaction with land.
A populated island in the path of Hermine.
Moving on to party on South Beach with Zika mosquitoes?
Hey anyone not afraid of Zika is probably okay with 99L..
Will it stay 99L or become Hermine?
And lastly some take it up over the islands.
Up towards Northern Florida, GA, SC or NC.
Obviously those models do not feel the ridge ...
And the next model runs will show us more solutions.
When they get data from the planes the models will have that data
End result: More Better Data ..as we say in the South.
Models with the right data in... to get better data out.
Garbage in .. Garbage out theory in place.
For example some models show Fiona mixing it up with ...
I'll be back later after the data comes in from the planes.
Not developed wave vs Tropical Storm below.
Invest 99L maybe becoming Hermine
Forecast tricky at this time the girl on TWC just said.
Nice dress. Tried a gown like that on for the wedding.
Nope, not wearing a gown for my son's wedding ....
...If it can be worn short on TWC at 10AM.
Not fancy enough for Mother of the Groom.
She looks good, does a great job on air.
September 18th, 2016.
I'll be in Miami.
90th Anniversary of Great Miami Hurricane.
Maybe do some research at NHC Library or History Center.
Some great video of Hurricane Wilma.
Respect Hurricane Historians.
Respect Storm Chasers.
They put together a package to properly educate you.
You being the general public.
Education is always good.
Knowledge is power.
Stay Hurricane Strong!
An eye like feature is popping out of Gaston.
I believe at 11 AM it will be stronger than 50 mph..
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm