Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Monday, August 22, 2016

TS Gaston Forming From Invest 90L But Gotta Watch 99L It Has Potential to Affect Islands, Bahamas & US Coast. Gaston Forecast to Stay Out to Sea...

Xs and Os

Fiona has been downgraded to an O.
Tropical Depression Fiona.
Giving it up finally to 
Shear from NW

Our bright Red X by the Islands has a 100% chance.
As in by the time I finish typing this it might be upgraded.
Or not....
It's really far out and no rush to name it.
Does NHC go Old School (wait....)
...or New Age and name.
I say NHC names it Gaston.
Leaving the Hermine name for 99L IF it develops.

That brings us back to our Yellow X Cruising towards Caribbean.
But does it go into the Caribbean and how strong will it be?
That my friends is the only real question on this map today.
Don't get confused while watching the models.
Keep your eye on Invest 99L

Could have been Gaston...
But it will be Hermine.
Could stay weak.....
Then bounce back like a late bloomer.
You know what we call Home Grown.
Well more like imported coffee brewed in Miami.

Remember earlier in the year when Earl stole the name?
Everyone was watching one wave ....
...then a wave to the West popped up?

All these waves are dancing in real time it's awesome.

Last night I took a snap shot and posted to Twitter.
Love this site really.

Sunday Night.

Could get lost in that site all day.
It's down towards bottom left on Spaghetti Models.

Fiona noticeably there.
Invest 99L there, large, stealth model.
Invest 90L screaming LOOK AT ME!

Monday Morning.
Makes it easier to compare and contrast.

Invest 90L looks tight = TS GASTON by 11 AM?
Fiona less tight = TD
Invest 99L a bit stronger. Still there.

Cross off Fiona for now.
Invest 99L loses name Gaston.
99L forecast to form L A T E R close in.
Gaston forms fast and goes out to sea.

Ta Da! 
Tropical Storm Gaston!!

See that's a crown Gaston is wearing..
Wins the name.
Don't look at Fiona remnants 

But for now.. 
...give Invest 90L it's due.

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You can see the sun rise over a new Tropical Storm.

Leaves us with one more named storm ...
..but worrying on an Invest that looks weak.

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So the big problem is this below.

Let's look at the Euro as the GFS is in the dog house.

We start off with small weak Fiona.
Large GASTON out by Africa.
Odd looking squished but huge messy 99L

Move it a few down the road.

Fiona gone, gone, gone.
HURRICANE Gaston speeding thru the Atlantic.
Invest 99L close in after doing the Bahamas...
Finds her groove.

HUGE Hurricane Gaston in Atlantic.
Not a problem for anyone.
Well formed Hermine just South of OBX (logical)
Oh Look... there's a potential Ian.
Note this is a long day model.
Model = possible solution

That L off SE Coast could be over Miami...
...or Daytona (model last night had it surfing in)
Off shore OBX

I know you want the GFS.
Fine... here's the GFS. 
Take it with Sea Salt please...

Don't crucify me for sharing a model.
It's just a model. 
Models change in real time.
When NHC puts up a cone it's a CONE.
I'll do some Hurricane History later.
Storms have formed there like that...
Katrina did but that was Katrina.
This COULD BE Hermine.
If it forms.

Small chance Invest 99L doesn't form ...
...but I think it's more likely to form than not.

BobbiStorm's Bottom Line here is:

Tropics heating up.
The Atlantic Ocean will also be heating up.
Invest 99L will find warmer water.
Gaston is named tho I have some issues with models.
Talk on that next post.
Fiona a player in an odd way but losing her name.

Just ONE model.
Long term model.

Question remains.
Does a ridge form and trap a storm off shore the US.
IF such a ridge does form (and some models show one)
A storm could get caught under it and make landfall.
That storm AT THIS POINT... 
Would not be Gaston or Fiona but Hermine.

Stay tuned.
I'll update later today.

Besos BobbiStorm

Ps... IF you have plans for Labor Day Weekend.
Make them... but keep an eye on the weather.
As always hurricane season or not.
But something about Labor Day and Hurricanes.

Enjoy the song..

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