Fiona small red circle going out to sea...
Big Momma sort of Wave that looks like...
A Classic Cape Verde Signature screaming:
GETTING A NAME!!
I WANT THE NAME...
Going to try and keep this simple but fun so hang on.
And note a week from now if the models play out...
I'll be deadly serious on a forecast for Gaston.
But a lot of time between here and there..
Like a "based on the true events" movie
Modeling 10 days out is...
..at times fantasy.
Invest 99L expected to become Gaston
Starting with Invest 99L as it has the potential to impact many places.
The Caribbean Islands are in it's path.
Talking LEEWARDS not necessarily Hispaniola
This is why I am starting here and not with Fiona.
Fiona is as we say in the biz OTS
Out to Sea...
The 5 Day Forecast for Invest 99L from the NHC...
... shows it IN the Islands.
The yellow track is for the next wave behind it.
Not going to discuss that one now.
Just know... it's there...
Invest 99L is forecast to ride low, westbound.
It develops on most models LATE..
Just at the gate so to speak.
Just before the islands.
Pretty color and good image.
By developing later it becomes more of a threat.
If a wave develops fast at 40 West...
..it ends up following Fiona.
Low, slow, it goes West.
Many models show this doing the curve at the islands.
Note there are some cold fronts threatening again.
First time in a long while NC is forecast to have a 67 degree low.
Again as I have said when you see frontal boundaries start moving..
...you get hurricanes forming and the season ramps up.
This is today:
This is a model image.
Just 1 model image of many.
Each has it's own solution.
Taking the higher side of the NHC cone it misses Hispaniola.
Missing that little wind breaker is a problem up the road often.
Different models offer different solutions.
As in they filmed the movie but not sure which ending to go with ...
Some show an impact in the South Florida area.
Talking Miami gets some weather from it.
Others show areas up the coast watching it.
And for the Carolina gang.. we be watching it too.
Actually as I am usually in one place or the other.
I'm really watching it.
One met up here in NC I've learned to respect and enjoy:
He knows weather AND he knows hurricane history!
We all love to complain about the Canadian Model.
But it's one of the forecasting pack of models.
Often it misses landfall but sniffs out a pattern.
More than just watching the ball (99L)
You have to watch the way the highs and lows go.
Where moisture congregates.
Where it's bone dry.
Showing this as any Hurricane starting out where 99L is..
..and forecast to go West intensifying into the Islands.
Not battling the shear and dry air that Fiona did.
Sailing through smoother waters..
With frontal boundaries showing up.
Needs to be watched.
After missing Haiti and the DR
It moves over the warm waters of the Bahamas.
Scares everyone in South Florida
Might want to buy advertising time on Channel 7 News.
Then passes by.. high surf, nice wind.
Breathe some fresh air.
Busts the beach season for Labor Day in Carolinas
Then get this Fantasy Track...
Takes Aim at it's strongest at NY NJ
Add in Del Marva.
Really messes up Labor Day Beach Weekend dreams.
Hello New England!!!
And then it goes out to sea ..
...possibly to see the Queen.
King Neptune scores a winner.
Listen the only reality here is this.
Invest 99L has the POTENTIAL for trouble.
It NEEDS TO BE WATCHED.
That said it could fizzle out.
Many this season have so why not bet it fizzles.
Or becomes a fish storm?
Today Fiona is going out to sea as a weak storm.
There's a new yellow x on the board.
Reality is said by my favorite Miami forecaster.
I'll add if 5 to 7 day models are not that accurate.
7 to 10 day models are very not accurate.
However they do show patterns and possible problems.
THIS IS THE TRUTH
The flip has been switched on in the tropics.
I'll update later today with more information.
Really in "based on true event" movies..
characters are merged together to save money..
... events are made up and exaggerated.
It's a real adrenaline rush like watching the GFS model.
Only in retrospect after Labor Day Weekend...
..will we know if Gaston becomes a Great Hurricane.
Or maybe Hermine behind the 99L Invest...
Grabs the gold and wins the Oscar.
Ps... Funny but sometimes movies are forgotten..
and the song wins the Oscar..
You may remember the early models for Gaston..
...more than you remember the actual track of Gaston.
Time will tell...