Updated thoughts, images and discussion.
This is what Invest 98L in fact looks like.
I start here so you can see we are discussing a wave.
Just a wave right now that is expected to become Fiona.
Red Circle with 70% chances of designation.
Remember that could be TD not just TS.
Currently models see it turning to the WNW and NW.
Many do not feel that is a done deal.
Not a sure thing.
It's a sort of wait and see it this develops fast and strong.
If not ... you know the drill...it goes to the West.
I mention www.spaghettimodels.com here often.
I encourage you to become familiar with all it offers....
There are steering charts for both Low and Upper Level winds.
There are maps that show shear and water temperature.
It's a plethora... a pasta buffet.
You can see from the image below the steering currents...
...for a weak struggling wave would be West.
Models however insist it will be able to make the turn NW..
..time will tell.
Another image below shows the lay out of the land.
Or in this case the Atlantic Ocean.
Although there is discussion on a weakness in the High at 45 West.
It's pretty strong, reinforced and it should be noted..
...the high sort of moves in tandem at times with our Invest.
Reminds me of one of my favorite old songs.
Every move the Invest makes... so does the High.
This is as always subject to change.
Weather being weather ... it happens in real time.
Another set of images I want you to look at here.
Intensity forecasts show this could be Hurricane Fiona.
Most top it out at Cat 1 but they're beginning to climb to Cat 2.
Also note there are other fish in the sea...
.. I mean waves ;)
Those circles are known as pouches and are being watched.
So based on steering currents and the current strength of Invest 98L
Watching it struggle as an elongated wave with what could be..
...multiple centers vying for the main center.
I don't see it going NW anytime soon.
Down the road in a few days possibly.
For now it's Westward Ho!
Has ample moisture.
Though some have said it is small...
..it's pocket of moisture is huge.
Helps it fight off the shear and the dry air.
But the dry air and shear are there.
And if it does continue West it will battle it's way there.
So stay tuned. It's a drama in real time happening now.
Once you have a large Cat 2 moving across the ocean...
...it's not such a big guessing game.
This is where it gets tricky.
Do the models change a bit later tonight?
Does 98L look better later tonight as it did last night?
A few models have broken from the pack.
Will that trend continue?
Life or death drama out in the Atlantic.
Is 98L falling apart or........
....is Fiona being born?
@bobbistorm on Twitter
Ps It's likely Fiona will take the bronze but hard to predict just yet.
As Mike from Spaghetti Models said today in discussion...
"it's all about the High...."
Keep watching the High as much as you are watching 98L
* * *
Post from earlier this morning..
Thank you ;)
20% in 2 Days
30% in 5 Days
NHC playing hard ball with Invest 98L
Conservative for now.
Why? Look at what's to the North of 98L
You got a real strong High.
Invest 98L moving so fast...
Escaped the NHC Floater.
15 mph west NOT...
Lots of SAL still.
You'd think it's a no go.
Yet Invest 98L is not giving up.
NHC is not listening to the models...
...for good reason.
Too early to trust models.
And next wave hasn't shown it's face yet.
That red dot on the edge of the left of floater...
...was Invest 98L
Conservative is good.
Ridiculous to scream shark when a wave is near Africa.
But mets in Carolinas watching this wave and...
...the wave behind it.
Time will tell.
For now enter stage right...
Truth each wave that develops is a player for the ...
Waves work together sometimes.
Battling the negatives.
A lead wave can block...
..or steer the one behind to the South.. West bound.
Either way models past a week are...
Yet we all watch
Remember it's really early here in the process.
This wave is far away and to be honest...
.. most meteorologists are salivating over the wave behind it.
The wave the models see with their Xray eyes...
It's very likely we will be tracking Fiona and Gaston soon.
Invest 98L in theory becomes Fiona.
Fiona is forecast to be a Fish storm for now.
That's 4 F words if you are keeping track...
And Gaston rolls off and is pushed further South.
Gets further West.
My problem with this is that it's too soon to make that call.
The pattern is there for a named hurricane to get far to the West.
Again when you have multiple viable waves the odds go up.
The shear can only battle so many waves at one time.
SAL gets distracted (if this was a movie)
One gets through.
For the Florida Folks...
Stronger image than Cuban Coffee huh?
Mind you with this strong high you would think this would be a ..
Wait a few frames...
Really the fine people of Georgia must feel either lucky...
With a High that is so strong it practically destroyed Louisiana ...
...without even a named storm.
The High has been the HUGE player here.
At this point hard to believe the High allows this to get by.
IF the models, the very long range models, verify..
The East Coast could have a Hurricane to worry on as...
Labor Day approaches.
Note if the current trend continues...
It has a problem forming, gets further West.
Models pull to the left a bit.
Again the NHC floater satellite can't keep up with it.
As it was moving way faster than the forecast 15 MPH W
That bugs me as they did not forecast it to move that fast.
The Invest from NRL ...
... left behind in the wake of a fast moving wave.
And moving that fast can lose it's center.
Same as image on the top of this blog.
They will adjust it in real time.
And that is how this goes.. in REAL time.
Still way too many variables for what could become Fiona
...to start worrying on Gaston.
But putting it out there.
A good long range model to watch.
Posted on the top left of Spaghetti Models
What about SAL you ask?
Slight slot for 98L to take advantage of...
While watching the High, SAL and Invest 98L
Read up on old storms from the past.
October storm. October 15th.
Made landfall at seasonal high tide.
IF anything gets into the Bahamas..
..over the Gulf Stream.
For those of you who are not surfers.
Advice from the Big Kahuna
So let's just watch Invest 98L ...
...see what it's got.
How the models play out.
And keep watching those loops...
Keep dancing 98L
Ps Only in the movies does Gidget marry Moondoggie ;)
But that's entertainment
I know Fishing... breathe ;)
After I see the movie...
...we'll see if I'm giggling or what..
California kids haha... Luau...
Miami Beach kids got the Fountainebleu and Eden Roc