Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Tuesday, August 09, 2016

Who Stole the Hurricanes? CLIMO VS ??? What is the Truth? War Dogs? Really the Truth or kind of maybe sort of ? What is Truth?

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Odd looking swirl, gyre, swirling round NOT A HURRICANE over Florida.
Jimmy Buffett should write a new song.
Look at that Water Vapor Loop.
One of the oddest I've seen in a long time.
Talking today on what everyone is talking about.
What we talk about every year usually in early August.
Where are the Hurricanes?
Where are the Major Hurricanes?
Yoo Hoo we are looking for the F storm..
Fiona not the A storm so this seems a silly discussion.
But meteorologists get bored, tired and they fight every year over this..
..and then something huge forms.

The tropics can be complicated to follow and actually to study. Tropical systems look so simple from outer space. A big round, spinning ball moving across the surface of the planet. At times they are very easy to define as they have a huge eye, an empty black circle in the middle of white spiraling bands that spin like a top you played with as a child. Google Hurricane and you can these images below.

Sometimes you get a random picture of a palm tree with all the fronds in one direction.

There are tropical disturbances.
A mass of tropical weather originating in the tropics. 
Not really developed enough to have a closed low.

Tropical Depressions up the bar by having a closed circulation.
The elusive "west wind" the hurricanes hunters try to find.
These can be confused with tropical storms as only 5 MPH separate them.

Check out this image from NASA.

Both closed systems.
Both have long tails.
Isaac here at this point was a Tropical Storm.
TD 10 looks pretty organized.
But not ready for prime time yet.

Oddly you put in Major Hurricane.
Category 3 and above into Google.
You get graphs and maps and hurricane images.
Even Insurance people are arguing over this..

One theory ..

Because everyone is trying to figure out why so few major hurricanes...
...have formed and made landfall of late.
Remember back we had fears of global warming and Category 6 and 7 storms?

A lot of  chatter in the media and in meteorology circles.
Some say it's just cyclical and it happens.
Some insist there are weather modification experiments to combat GW.
You know "shhhh don't tell anyone secret tests for our own good"
Other logical types point out we have had much El Nino
And Grande size SAL across the Atlantic.
Venti size dry air across the Sahel Region of Africa.

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See the moisture for the CAPE VERDE HURRICANES..
..comes from strong tropical waves over this region.

We have waves but we haven't had great waves.
And the waves have been battling grande SAL.

Those are not kick ass waves.
Honestly. No one is winning the gold medal there.
Okay the lead wave could place... bronze maybe.
It's not really even a Venti.
Going to Spaghetti Models as they have great maps there.
Mike who runs it is great, great guy, great family.
The pretty purple over Africa is VERY DRY AIR.
One tropical wave there that's maybe viable.
Dust at a minimum compared to 2 weeks ago.

Add in Saharan Dust that does begin to wane in August usually.
It's waning as I type this however there is dry air and shear.
And meager looking waves.
Note this season ramps up mid to late August...
...through September.
So it's early to say that this 2016 is a dud.
A movie is coming out in Mid August.
It may be a dud or a winner.
It is "based on truth"
Loosely based on truth... 
...and who tells the truth?
I'm digressing but hey it's my life so I'm allowed.

Using a movie example here based on a true events in Miami.
The movie will be great entertainment but not truth.
The article in the NY Times was true.
The article in Rolling Stone was close to true.
Book a bit boring but somewhat factual.
The movie is pure entertainment.
For literary people the story is not told through Gatsby's eyes.
The story is told from the nerdy guy who lived on the edge of his world.
Trust me on this they never drove through the Triangle of Death.

Unless the Triangle of Death was getting home from Sushi Samba on Lincoln Road
...on Miami Beach during the Boat Show. 
Mucho traffic. Scary tourists .. very hard to navigate Dade Blvd and Alton Road.
I guess you could call that the Triangle of Death during the Boat Show.

Yes... the true Triangle of Death ..
..or madness.

Picture from online of a kid trying to score a Government contract.

Few years later... when owner got the contract.
Again pictures taken on line but I can verify time line.

Kids... posing like you do for a MySpace picture.. or Facebook.

The movie based on TRUE EVENTS shows this dynamic duo.

Hmmmm suddenly David has Efraim's hair...
...and some older, heavier actor looking like he is pushing 30 is playing Efraim.
That actor doesn't look like he just turned 18... 
But that's entertainment. 

Who cares about truth?

When the Sahel Region has moisture.. less purple.
When SAL is not as strong.
When El Nino is not forcing tropical waves through the Triangle of Death.. 
When Jupiter aligns with Mars or Mercury.
We get hurricanes that spin and dance across the Atlantic.

In years like the last few when El Nino created shear across the Caribbean.
And El Nino shut down the Gulf of Mexico.
SAL shut down the Atlantic.
Sahel wasn't being a game player.
We get very few hurricanes that are worth their weight in gold.
A few get through like last year Joaquin.
Sandy happens after a weak year of wannabe storms.

The 1940s brought us hurricanes.
The 1960s brought us wild hurricanes in Florida.
Donna, Cleo, Betsy and Dora in Jacksonville..go figure.
The 80s took the hurricanes to other places..
While we have been going through nothing.
The Philippines have been bombarded... 

Some people believe a curse from an Indian Chief ...
... was responsible for many Presidential dying and the New Madrid Earthquake

What do you believe?

Hurricanes happen when all the players come together.
It's that simple.
We aren't there yet.
We may be later in August and September.
I'd bet money we have action in September.
Not a lot... 
.. I'll buy someone a Grande of their choice.

Some people believe it's a conspiracy.
Some wonder on Global Warning.
I'll tell you one thing.
When mets online begin to fight over why hurricanes are not forming..
....why they are not making landfall...
It's about to happen.
Just go to Starbucks... 
...go to the movies.

Miami went from Betsy in 1965 .. Andrew in 1992 without one Major Hurricane.
And then along came Andrew..

Movies... War Dogs.
You want truth?

The owner of the company was a cute, average build boy turning 18.
He lived nearby, knew his grandmother and uncle well.
A very smart young man who was good at coloring outside the lines.
His "partner" who told the story was an but odd looking tall bald kid.
I can say this as I was friends with their parents grandparents...
..and I taught one of them a few times in kindergarten.
Neighbors.. David's mother makes a great kugel.. but I digress.
David lived literally around the corner from me ... 

Based on Truth....
What is truth?
Truth is the owner of the company telling the story maybe..
Maybe truth is everyone telling their story.
Maybe the truth is not as exciting.
As my daughter said when the trailer came on..
..after we stared, giggled.
"well they had to make it more exciting then it was..."

Hey they were supposed to release it back in March...
But they had to redo it a bit, make it better.
Change the title... fudge the truth.
That's Entertainment!

Using Starbucks here as an example.
It's summer let's go with Iced Coffee

I'll send someone a great Starbucks card if we do not get a Major Hurricane.
I'll send a Starbucks card with more $ if America doesn't get hit by a Major Cane.

And if you want to hear the truth from the owner of the company AEY.
Buy his book.
Go get a Starbucks (there are 3 of them on Lincoln Road)
Read it, sip the drink... then go see the movie.

By the time the movie comes out August 19th..
I'm pretty sure we will be tracking hurricanes.
Maybe one will be headed to Miami Beach.
To the Triangle of Death ;)
Well actually currently the Zika triangle of death is:
Wynwood, Design District and maybe Edgewater.

Stay tuned..

I'm not counting out shields and weather modification attempts .
I'm not counting out voodoo, astrology and Santeria.
I'm counting on hurricanes forming.

Where they go...
Is anyone's guess.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps... Mosquitoes don't travel very far. Yeah right.
That guy from NIH does not know live in Miami.
I do... I know the truth.
Soon we will hear Hurricanes spread Zika... 
..or they might.
The parrots on Lincoln Road got to Miami Beach after Hurricane Betsy.
True Story.


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