GOM 20% Yellow Circle. Potential for Tropical Trouble... Name or Not.. Flooding Rains. Earl's Leftovers Move Towards Pacific After Destruction in Belize

A lot to talk about this morning yet to be honest it's mostly speculation still. And, post game discussion on Earl shown above. Though when dealing with a storm that has killed people and created such devastation it's not really a "game" but a tragedy. Earl from Day 1 was the classic underestimated weather system that few expected to ever really last let alone become a Hurricane. Some of the models saw it coming but they were counted out and others lost it. In the beginning no one noticed it while waxing poetic on Invest 96L that by the way... died without a name. Sometimes the models see a pattern and the weather people who translate those images get the pattern right and the early details wrong. I've seen this before many times actually. The pattern is right but the two waves are close together it gets confusing. Some will read this and say I am off but no I'm not. Seen it often when you have a long, yellow banana sort of area highlighted by the NHC and the models take part of that energy and do something with it. Example Invest 96L the favored wave dies off and the not so favored wave 97L becomes a strong Category 1 Hurricane.  Let's let Earl go to it's place in history. The second hurricane of the 2016 Hurricane Season that made landfall in Belize and killed 6 people in the Dominican Republic.

Note some of Earl's energy may keep going in the Pacific.

Pretty good for an overachieving tropical wave.

My favorite image of Earl.

So what I do want to speak on is something I've been watching for days.

A possible set up near Florida for a tropical rain event.

It could get a name.. or just be a No Name..

Time will tell...

20% in 5 days.

Note there is already a problem there today.

The set up is there.

It will be more defined in a few days.

There has been a tropical wave chasing an Upper Level Low in the Atlantic.

A lot of the moisture becomes wrapped up together.

The ULL crosses Florida into the Gulf of Mexico.

Another system moves down from the North.

A stalled out frontal boundary in the GOM

The usual suspects tangle together near Tampa.

Well mostly in the GOM ... BUT...

The moisture flows around the no name system..

... funnels "fire hose" style the rain towards Florida.

In this case Tampa, St Pete and other W. Florida areas.

Monday a closed Low shows up on the NWS Loops

Thursday the Low sort of makes landfall.

So the Low goes North...

...but or as we say in Miami pero...

Irregardless... 

The rain gets propelled towards the Florida West Coast.

There was a storm years back that made landfall around there.

And the Big Bend area had massive flooding far to the East.

Understand the Tropical Storm didn't seem such a big deal.

But far from landfall the fire hose set up combined with...

...the lay of the land, the bays, the beaches.

Massive huge Flooding.

So from the Big Bend of Florida down to Tampa Bay.

They need to watch out for impact from this ...

possibly no name system.

I've talked in private about this for a while.

I wasn't sure if the ULL & wave was the issue.

Or the frontal boundary draped across the Gulf of Mexico.

Or both....

Sometimes ingredients come together.

The stalled out frontal boundary is always a problem.

Jim Cantore puts the collage together here telling the story.

Well the possible story.

We may be discussing this in detail over the next few days.

You can see the moisture in the GOM.

No dark colors, no dry weather.

The frontal boundary moving towards the GOM

(the next one not the last one)

The Upper Level Low moving like a black hurricane..

..towards South Florida. 

Moisture wrapped up in it following into the GOM

For that matter you got moisture South of Cuba oozing North.

A lot of converging characters ....

Keep watching.

As for me I took the day off yesterday.

Spent some time with my sons.

Had lunch at Monty's in the Grove.

When my cousin and I were teens we'd hang out there.

Now my son works next door ....

.....selling Real Estate with Compass Realty.

Smart son grew up on Miami Beach ...

...but now he lives and works in the Grove.

Down the hall from my son's office... 

...this caught my attention.

No place like the Grove really..

Had a drink in the Gables at the Globe Bar.

That's not my son just a local.. 

Old movies.

Globes.

Cuban style menu.

Great music.

So that was my day away from doing the tropics here.

Okay had a Miami Vice at Monty's

Some Moscow Vodka with Ginger Ale and Lime at the Globe.

Note the scotch I tasted that's called Storm ;)

Keep an eye on the Gulf of Mexico it has potential for trouble.

See even Jim agreed with me. Happens.

So this is for my friend we will call Carolina...

...when I see a set up.. I see a set up.

Takes a while to see how it comes together.

And as always with the GOM you never really know.

Curious piece of left over moisture South of Cuba.

Earl's leftovers or ???

You can see storms to the North in the GOM.

Note the current stalled out front.

Reinforced by the next front that will stall out.

Keep watching.

Atlantic may have problems this year...

.... but close in is always ripe and ready.

Home Grown possibilities in the Gulf of Mexico.

Not sure how it will unfold... 

..like a semi true story.

You know like movies based on the "truth"

(hahaha)

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter 

Ps Leaving this here for a friend...

...who loves trains especially CSX trains