Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Wednesday, August 03, 2016

Still a TS Earl 70 MPH Knocking on Hurricane Strength. Where's Invest 98L ??

11 AM.
Not there yet Earl.
Keep huffing and puffing.
Drop your pressure 10 more ...
You know the drill upgrade just prior to landfall.

Does Earl become a Hurricane before Landfall?
Probably, more possible than not but what's 5 mph?

Visible Loop

vis_lalo-animated.gif (720×480)

Why is this developing aside from warm water?

Earl is moving into a sweet spot. 
Low shear or much less shear.
Nice flare up of convection over the center.
Banding developing.
A possible eye like feature wanting to pop out.

But we can play conservative.
Say it's close to land.
Not there yet.

Recon is in the plane as I write this...
Pressure 987 currently... dropping.
Note a hurricane doesn't need an EYE.
An EYE pops out a bit later usually.
Cloud pattern and what seems to be an eye forming.
Southern side is near land but that's not the strong side.
Either way Hurricane Warnings are already posted.

The NHC has always counted out this system in ways.
Yes they threw it an Invest designation but they liked the other wave.
Models were iffy until they were spiffy.
Always has to prove itself.
VS Colin. . . .
Models liked Colin . . .
Must suck to have to always look over your shoulder while working.
Some one second guessing every decision based on modeling.
Just saying. 
Are the models making the final call or are we?
How good are models?

Some have been very good in different ways.
One saw track better, the other saw intensification better.
NHC is forever trying to align and average out the models.
Shame we are not there yet... 
Maybe next popular model will have it all.

8 AM

Spoiler alert... at 11 AM Still not a Hurricane:

I said I'd wait til the morning visible but decided to wait until the NHC put out their 11 AM forecast package. Why? Barometric pressure down but at 8 AM they refused to increase the wind speed I suppose waiting for more recon information and to see if it could maintain the apparent intensification. Not going on a rant here, just watching and waited until 11 AM. Also, there is a beautiful intensification, classic process going on that I've seen time and again as Tropical Storms spin on the ledge wandering West towards Belize. They seem to like that spot, not a good thing for Belize, but beautiful to watch.

ft-animated.gif (1120×480)

Also watching the flare up off the SE Coast of convection.
A wayward, west bound wave fighting the shear zone in Atlantic.
Sort of like an orphan in the movie Oliver.
Please sirs... may I have some more attention??

Yes there is shear there and no the models don't love it.
So it's totally ignored except in discussion no one reads.

Also note the system closer to the Islands, flares up... 
... wants to go meet convection off SE coast.

But getting back to our Prime Time Earl..

Guess we were waiting on more better satellite imagery.
Another recon message.
A model to decide to give Earl more intensity.
Or for a model to like the wave in the Atlantic.
To give it some more attention...
Always watching those models.

Understand in a sea of dry Saharan Dust Invest 97L won the war.
Battle by battle, ingesting SAL, battling shear.
It traveled across the Atlantic looking for a name... fame.
Some measure of respect from the powers that be.
Where's Invest 96L the models loved now??

Track below of Invest 97L AKA TS EARL

Long distance runner.
It even took on some interaction with Hispaniola 
Mother Nature threw it all she had...
..and yet it persevered.
This is why Tropical Meteorology is great drama.
Something about E storms that rarely get the headlines.
Ernesto, Earl. 
It's a process.
F Storms seem to be ... 
...well F storms. 
But for now Earl is a Rocky Balboa of storms in a way.
Not some huge Category 5 storm.
Or even a Category 3 storm.
But everyone said "forget about it"
Except Invest 97L didn't listen.

Gotta give it it's due.
Whether it gets the Hurricane Name or not.
Hint to Earl: Pop out an eye it might help..

It's pretty impressive for a late July wave embedded in SAL

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps Will update as warrants.
Hint.. if it becomes a Hurricane.
Knocking on Hurricane Status for the record books.
That's what 5 MPH means in the end.


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