UPDATED ....EARL. 50 MPH Moving Towards Belize. Blossoming. More African Waves.

Okay back from the Mall... 

...Crazy thunderstorm in Hollywood Florida.

Actually at Aventura Mall the lightning was so strong...

Someone asked me nervously if this was from "the tropical storm"

No... a bit yes ... there is some added instability in the air here.

That red dot is directly over my house.

Okay I do shop at Belk and purple is my color.

I digress.

Earl is popping right now down in the Caribbean.

Shear is lighter.

High has less influence.

Moving slower.

Water is warm.

Conditions are basically good for short term development.

Short term as in before it runs into Belize.

Some models continue to see Earl getting into the BOC.

Other models see it dying slowly in the mountains of Mexico.

We'll see.

Note shear is not such a big problem just now.

This is the Sweet Spot the models have been showing..

Prime Real Estate for fast development.

Sort of like Condos on Miami Beach.

I want to point out that there are more systems out there.

Not much discussion on them but entering Stage Right.

A rolling wave much like 97L and 96L before that.

You can also see how Earl is blossoming.

So is the wave no one is discussion highlighted in purple below

I guess they want to take them one system at a time..

Models have shown a storm getting up into our part of the world.

GOM in play but then again some models showed that for Earl.

There are plenty more where Earl came from...

Stay tuned.

I'll be back.

Earl deserved the upgrade.

It does have a closed circulation.

It might not be pretty but most minimal Tropical Storms...

...don't look pretty. 

Honestly.

If the ASCAT doesn't hit it exactly right...

...it can miss a small closed center.

And, after being stronger than expected in the Islands..

..it had some interaction with Hispaniola that did not kill it.

When that does not kill it after traveling thru SAL in Atlantic..

...and tangling with mountains in the Dominican Republic.

There is something there holding it together even if we can't see it.

The wind imagery doesn't always work with small storms.

Dropsondes work best.

As far as we have come we have so far to go.

African Waves may be the things meteorologists dream of this year.

This video always reminds me of stories Bill Gray told me about ...

...seeding clouds in Africa with Joanne Simpson.

A true pioneer in our field.

Hint... She's the woman in the group ;)

Nothing lasts forever... and Earl will go into history soon.

Fiona is out there waiting to be born.

Sweet Tropical Dreams..

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps...

That's dedicated to my daughter Rivky who.. sings a lot of Taylor Swift.

* * * 

Post from earlier today..

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/155812.shtml?5-daynl#contents

Will upgrade in detail this afternoon after data from recon is processed.

Tropical Storm Earl already responsible for at least 6 deaths is moving towards Jamaica and Belize down the road.

Please check back and follow www.spaghettimodels.com while I'm out having lunch with my son Levi.

Actually as he was checking his mail... 

... I checked up on Earl :)

Stay tuned.

Good call NHC

Besos Bobbistorm