A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!
Tuesday, August 02, 2016
No Name Killer Tropical Wave Forecast to Be TS Earl ...Still, Trying to Pull It Together Still. Recon Doing It Again..
Still a No Name Killer Tropical Wave.
The real recon is almost there.
Not Meh but not there yet according to NHC
Looking good but fluctuations of intensity.
Pulses up, pulses down.
A sign there's a problem....
Hurricane Hunters are doing it again.
Hopefully Gonzo will figure it out.
Til then cruise along in a classic convertible.
Listen to the thoughts inside my head.
I'll upgrade later..
..when there is something to upgrade.
So since there's nothing named in the tropics let's just ramble a bit in interconnected tropical ways. If you ever loved somebody, you got to keep them close. Time can be the big equalizer in ways as it washes away all the nonsense like sifting for gold. The unimportant sands sift away and what remains is golden. Or golden remnants of once was something way larger that broke up and washed down a stream.
Over time you appreciate things more that you didn't really notice when you were young. Life is filled with small slivers of inconsistencies. Oddities that don't fit like puzzles from another puzzle that got lost in the wrong box and yet they are there driving you crazy.
Dances don't just begin you have to have music, rhythm, beat, percussion and I've been told a good Coda works well too. You need lyrics; words and music. A good screen writer I know knows how to take notes using semi colons and yet NOAA can't fly a mission down to Jamaica without having a maintenance problem. Bathrooms were broken? I digress... Happens. Crap happens ya know (being politically correct) and when I first heard that Ed Sheeran song I thought it had different lyrics. Sort of like when they don't upgrade a storm or do way too fast and the fantastic brains at the NHC re-evaluate it months, sometimes years later and the truth comes out. Oops... My bad. I mean Earl in the Gulf of Mexico seemed like a "my bad" for a real long time but finally one of it's many multiple centers found it's groove.
Perhaps as long as any closed center it's better than no verifiable center as many times there have been upgrades of systems that it immediately became apparent has multiple centers. It also became apparent that they were tracking the wrong center so they relocated it to another close by location where the true center was or the center jumped coming off of Cuba.
I've been around for a long time, longer than I want to say. I grew up tracking storms old school by pen and messing up the maps when I made a mistake because I was too stubborn to use a pencil. On maps handed to my brother by Neil Frank at the NHC and my neighbor growing up her son flew into the hurricanes when few men did and she told me what they saw. The walls of her house were covered by photographs blown up and framed that her son took in storms. No I won't say which person, but there weren't many hurricane hunters back then. My best friend for a while in high school squeezed in between boyfriends and other best friends knew storms, her father was the navigator. I dated a boy who interned at the NHC and was frustrated that mostly he made photocopies but he knew a lot, smart boy with a high GPA he kept up while taking time off from school to work at the NHC after school. I've known so many great meteorologists and you learn more from them then you do from any Meteorology 101 class trust me. Jim today on TWC started waxing poetic on John Hope; mantras of tropical meteorology memorized line by line, year after year John was always right. I'm friends with someone who day by day as he was watching John died he sent updates and we wrote words of encouragement to his wife and then condolences. My name squeezed between Bob Burpee and Bob Sheets alphabetically of course.
These were the greats of meteorology who somehow wove their way into the fabric of my life. Really I don't need some young, cute met to explain to me meteorology while he works on the pixelation of his weather model that will look way better than anyone he is competing with for top gun or be used a part of his resume for a coveted job at the NHC. Let me tell you about models, they come and go like buses or Uber cars. Like boyfriends there's another one waiting somewhere to fill your dance card and years from now we will say "Remember when the EURO insisted the Invest would close off and it never did" the way we make fun of the Aviation model today.
And as much as I love the recon planes and would love to fly in one (got as close as a long ride in the van that takes them to the planes once) the truth is it's sort of silly to have them parked in Mississippi during the hurricane season rather than closer to the source of the moisture. They have tried that too... both ways. I get it but fly a plane down, turn it around and then fly another one down tomorrow. Sounds way more old school than me talking on a hurricane tracking map with cords from a friend at the NHC scribbled in my school notes on a paper tracking map that covered half a wall in my bedroom.
Models are inconsistent like the moon as Juliet told Romeo. Tropical systems are difficult to define even though we have a definition, sometimes we get messy with those definitions years from years until we are issuing advisories on squashed spiders. A line only old timers will get ;)
Everyone says weather men like Jimmy Buffett and that's true but in the old days we all hung out at a jazz club near the airport. Then Jimmy came along...and most of the guys who sat around in dusty, smoke filled rooms out near the airport listening to great jazz don't live no more. Some do... the young ones who learned from the old ones. They learned face to face, sitting across a desk at the old NHC 3 feet away from John Hope. That was how you used to learn weather.. the degree was just something you got by taking one class after another until you got your degree. And, then you went out into the real world. Well that part is kind of the same but standing in front of a smart phone doing a Live Broadcast from an App on your phone does not make you a weather icon. Time does. Time wins in the same way CLIMO wins and beats out day by day weather speculation.
This really strong, killer Tropical Wave that according to all of our great models in 2016 is expected to get an upgrade to a possible weak Tropical Storm Earl or borderline wanna be Hurricane before it slams into Belize. Oh note the same really smart models seen on our smart phones originally took this into the Yucatan and Gulf of Mexico. Hey, you win some ... you lose some. Jim Cantore worries on Belize as he knows the potential for more tropical misery and he truly respects an Invest AKA Strong Tropical Wave that has already killed 6 people in the Dominican Republic. Trust me I know that.
Spoiler alert some models keep insisting it could go North after Belize.. really. Personally I'd love for it to climb, miraculously after actually getting a name and verifiable center and see it limp into Brownsville Texas as a barely there but named storm. Then I could throw it in Jim Williams face and watch him wrinkle up his names, get upset and laugh. Could happen. Doubt it. I'm going shopping. I'm home in Miami and the NO NAME STORM is not here as some models suggested so going to go do my thing and watch my smart phone every few minutes or so and hope I don't fall into the fountain in Aventura Mall while walking without looking talking to friends on Twitter. If you hear about some cute lady having to be pulled out of the fountain and you see it on Youtube taken by bystanders know it probably happened cause someone whispered the name Earl into a Direct Message.
Think it was a TD the other night and fell apart.
That's my thoughts.
Look at how that High wrapped like a Great Atlantic Dark Hurricane...
...is wrapping up pushing West.
@bobbistorm on Twitter
Ps.. I owe my youngest son an apology.
This is not a stupid blog.
It's a great blog.
I was depressed a bit a few weeks back.
Happens. And then you pull it together and fight back.
Like a good hurricane.
Classic post that few will really get.
But those who do.. Love Ya.
PS... not proofing this so forgive me for mistakes I'll fix later.
Like the NHC re analyzes it's storms post season ;)
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm