INVEST 96L & 97L IN COMPETITIVE RACE... Long Range Discussion on GOM/Yucatan System

Let's look at the bigger picture below.

Keep that in mind while reading discussion.

I put this image here to show where Invest 96L is located.

Very visible as a specific entity.

Also note the wave eyeing it from the African Coast.

Further WEST is Invest 97L moving west rapidly.

Impacts to the islands may begin this weekend.

Note the discussion out of San Juan 

You can see below how close Invest 97L is to the Islands.

Unless something not expected happens...

...this is a rain event.

Depending on the trajectory over the next few days..

..we could have something more to talk about later in the forecast period.

A lot of this is based on "IF" it develops.

"IF" it survives.

It is logical to expect it to survive.

As what?

Tropical Depression Status is in play.

Tropical Storm Status perhaps.

http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/al972016_inten.png

Shows the ability for it to ramp up to named status.

I'm not saying for sure but it's possible.

Better than a guess.

Models...

Iffy sometimes especially when there are 2 systems close together.

Invest 96 seems to currently have lower modeling intensity.

Earlier this seemed reversed.

Note new models show it staying low.

Earlier some models showed a northward bias in tracks.

 Then going to Invest 97 we see more westbound models.

Currently I don't believe the models have a good handle.

Other than Westbound Ho!

Minimal intensity storms possible.

Not probably but possible one gets advisories.

A lot will depend on how Invest 97L looks tomorrow morning.

And if it looks worth the trip recon will go down and take a look.

Invest 96L moving steadily towards the Islands.

Distant possible tracks dancing in it's head.

There are also so models showing something nearing the Yucatan.

Getting into the Gulf of Mexico.

Some have said that's from this Invest.

And, yet you can see moisture coming off the coasts of Colombia.

Lingering around Central America off and on.

Another Tropical Wave is near the Bahamas.

Interactions with Upper Level Lows tickling the convection.

Going to leave you here with another video.

I like to mix things up and share different points of view.

http://hurricanetrack.com/2016/07/29/two-tropical-waves-to-monitor-in-the-atlantic/

Watch the video and read his thoughts.

I agree.

There are signs in the Atlantic Basin that this will be a busy season.

Mid August should find us knee deep in action.

96 looks better now that it did yesterday.

Again its hitting that sweet spot.

Warmer water.

Light shear.

Not the best environment but better than we have seen.

IF you are in the Islands pay close attention to local weather sources.

Good site to use for Caribbean Weather.

As for distant 96...

Embryonic sort of waves.

Not named storms.

Yet definitive entities.

With so many possibilities.

Stay tuned I'll update later if I can..

...if there is something to update.

Bottom Line.

Let's hear it from the source.

NHC Discussion.

Cones for Invests

What is evident is if they hang together.

One or both could be problems down the road.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps.. At home in sultry, balmy, beautiful Miami.

Already had sushi for lunch with some of the crew.

Good to be home.

Again sorry for any typos.

Not on my usual machine and need some sleep.

Perhaps tonight...