Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Thursday, July 28, 2016

UPDATED INVEST 97L Forms. NEW YELLOW CIRCLE AIMS S FLORIDA CUBA, BAHAMAS, ETC. Tropical Drama 96L Battles SAL. A Lesson In Hurricane History and Hurricanes That Are HOME GROWN Like Katrina, 1935 Labor Day Storm

Extrapolation of Previous Cone.
Remember currently they are far away.
Invest 97L is moving faster than Invest 96L

Currently intensity forecasts are low.

Note should this get into the Hot Tub that is the Caribbean.
Watch out, all bets are off.

Going to post some thoughts from an online friend.
Good thoughts and graphics.

Thoughts below were from earlier today.
Please continue you reading as they are still relevant. 

1 Remaining thought.
Though it's far away and they are weak.
It shows we are moving into what I believe ....
.....will be a busy season.
And because of many factors ...
..the US coastline is in play for land falling hurricanes.
More so this year than last.
Remember how fast we went from zero to 2 Invests.

Never turn your back on a quiet spell in the tropics!
If NHC makes it an Invest.. it has potential.
Time will tell if potential is realized....

Bookmark this site. 
You may need it down the tropical road.

* * *

Not I'm not being silly here.
Honest Injun.
2PM places a new yellow circle.. 
Aimed straight at:
Greater Antilles.
Possibly South FL....

Yellow Circle 30% in 5 Day
Orange Circle 40% in 5 Day

Add that together and you get 70%
That's not scientific but it IS mathematical. 

New Invest 97L

Old Invest 96L 

NHC Discussion below... 
...will update blog later.

* * * 

So much to say but not sure where to begin. Let's begin at the beginning as some Sister dancing on a mountain top in the Alps taught me that when I was a little girl. Let's start with our star of the hour Invest 96L.  The above visible satellite image is from NRL and shows a neat, tightly wound tropical wave off the coast of Africa. A little low but staying low to avoid the Saharan Dust to it's North. Understand the Saharan Dust Layer AKA SAL moves in real time. In fact SAL has more moves than you can imagine. It grooves, dips like it's doing the tango then shoots off towards South Florida or even makes it as far away as Texas. Spoiler Alert... Late August and September hurricanes often later follow the track laid down by SAL earlier in the season. It's not rocket science it's merely the every flowing river known as the atmosphere and the atmosphere from year to year has patterns. A strong High gets the SAL far to the West allowing for more colorful sunsets in Key West. Also a health problem for many people with breathing problems so keep that in mind.

That's not a lava lamp.
That's SAL swirling West.

Again SAL flows with the river of the atmosphere...

Again unless a hurricane is a strong Category 3 and it can make it's own steering currents to some degree due to the huge High aloft that allows the outflow to intensify into a monster.. most hurricanes follow the same steering currents that SAL and weak waves follow.

The atmosphere has many layers. Upper Level Winds vs Lower Level Winds and there's a mid layer in between where waves sometimes get lost trying to develop into hurricanes. Also Upper Level Lows sometimes work their way down to the lower level... though that's not something that happens often. Over achievers have done that in the past as well as merging with a westbound tropical wave but those are rare flowers... like that corpse flower that blooms but rarely.

That's for Jim Cantore if he's watching..

Now a let's look at a loop I love..

latest72hrs.gif (947×405)

One reason many love the loop above is it shows us... 
...the river of the atmosphere or rather...
...where the moisture goes caught in the flow.
Yes it also shows rolls forming in waves.
But it shows the flow...
Remember that.
Also shows available energy if a wave gets its roll on..

Water Vapor Loops shows the flow as well.
It often tells the future better than crystals ;)

sat_wv_east_loop-12.gif (640×512)

Why with all the new fancy water vapor loops do I use this one?
I love this loop as it shows the whole picture.
If you use this link it allows you to see past and present better.

12 Hours Before

Current View

Note moisture in Atlantic within the Huge High now.
Moisture moving into GOM
Orientations changing slowly.
Convection flaring in places.

It flows. It oozes. 

latest_wv_loop.gif (535×440)

Sometimes I'm Old School.
Sometimes I'm New School.
New Age?

Over time new age becomes old school.
Wonder where these guys are today?

Let's take a look at Hurricane Katrina.
Everyone remembers where it made landfall.
Most forget it hit Miami as they remember Nola.
Where did it form?

Over the warm waters of the Bahamas.

Close in.
Home grown.
Hurricane Katrina.


Or the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane.

Great conditions locally.
Warm, HOT waters of Gulfstream.
Bahamas are always good for hurricanes.
Shear is often less there later in the year.

Let's talk on Hurricane Betsy.
Multiple centers far from each other.
Multiple centers on multiple levels.
Struggled about like Hurricane Andrew in it's infancy.
Then after looping about.. BAMN. 
Betsy was in Florida face.
A flirt, a tease it was called.
Impossible it turned back SW..

Oops oh my bad that's Jeanne.
Seriously did that on purpose.
Just playing with ya..
Note survived Hispaniola ...
..wandered dizzy like it had a concussion.
Reforms heads West and goes crazy around 75W.

Betsy also a looper and also intensified far to the West.

75W Hurricane Betsy comes alive again.

So you want to know where Invest 96L is going to go?
Westish ;)

Seriously GREAT blog post by my friend Phil.
Please read when your done with my flowing thoughts ..

1 2 3 4

Jim Cantore likes to make football analogies.
You got to love football like I do to appreciate them.
A good runner needs blockers along the way..
Early waves provide moisture as they fall apart.
Each wave adds more moisture.
Wave train has begun.

Sometimes a wave turns into an over achiever.
Hurricane Andrew was a wave no one liked.
Most everyone at NHC wanted to pull the plug.
Easy to say odds were against TS Andrew making it.
Oh the drama...
They agreed on sticking with the name...
Gave it another six hours to prove itself!

And then at 75W it found it's mojo..
What is in the water there at 75 West? 
Hot water. Very hot water.
High to the North.

Went Cat 5 just after 75 West.

As for models with Invest 96L
And the big question:
"Where does it go?"
"Does it survive SAL?"

GFS loses it in time.

Euro loses it also.
Note other waves behind it.

Easy to say Meh but well keep watching.

Might also add that a few models show development in GOM.

Canadian weighs in ... always smoking something.

1 weak storm busts into the high..
2nd low appears rolls across Yucatan into GOM.

I'd say bottom line around August 17th...
..we will begin to see real action.
The switch has been turned on.
You know the new bulbs I hate?
They don't get bright right away...
...but they last longer.

Keep Watching.
I'll update later today.
Again please read Phil's blog.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps.. Oh wait... you came for a song?
You're here for a song?
Well watch this and remember ...
..there's a lot of waves.. 
Which one becomes the memorable one.
Maybe Fiona??


Post a Comment

<< Home