Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Wednesday, July 20, 2016

GFS Drinks Red Bull & Develops Storms in Atlantic. Models. Pieces of a Tropical Puzzle Played in Real Time. Coral Gables Always Picture Perfect.

Seems the GFS model drank some Red Bull overnight.
Suddenly there's systems everywhere.
It's a model, not what's there today.
Maybe down the road.
Early August

In reality this morning we have not much happening.

NHC says nothing happpening.
I'm working on a September wedding in Miami.
Mike is at Dollywood. Sweet.
Apparently he doesn't work 9 to 5.
Okay neither do I ;)
I love Dolly but I'm digressing.

The huge, large, high in the Atlantic is not digressing or on vacation.

A tropical system that was viable would go far with that set up.
Place a storm on that map and where does it go?

Another piece of the puzzle below.

Current synoptics show a small break in the ridge.
We do not have a named system so this is not a problem.
If something does develop it could be a problem.
Scroll back to the top GFS model.
Does that make sense now?

Oceanic Heat Content map shows we are not there yet.
Well not there yet for the Atlantic.
Nice waves but the water is not warm enough yet.

Love this loop because it's long.
Shows many moving pieces in motion.

sat_wv_east_loop-12.gif (640×512)

Always loved the Canadian satellite views.

Some moisture off the coast of Carolinas.
Some people are watching for home grown development.
Keep watching.

The pieces are not all there.
The puzzle will come together sooner or later.

Just pieces... possibilities.
A new "Caribbean Blue" one..

Okay it's Carolina Panthers Blue but color is fun.

The Mother of the Bride (smart lady) told me..
Make sure you are comfortable in it...
..dancing, long, long afternoon and night.
So I danced about and laid down in it.
Watched some of the convention.

The wedding is in September.
Peak of the season.
I'll be in Miami in August.
I can do shopping... 
Aventura, Bal Harbor, Miracle Mile.
Downtown Miami Macys.

It's a process... nothing has to be decided today.

Much like this DEVELOPING Hurricane Season.
I'm not going to run around crying the sky is falling.
Nor am I going to say this is gonna turn into 2005.
It will be what it will be.
We aren't there yet.

A Hurricane Season develops in real time. It's not a neatly packaged product like a rain storm in corn country where clouds have been seeded to make some rain. It has many moving parts; a puzzle with many pieces that are all needed to complete the puzzle. If you want to finish that puzzle, pour modge podge over it and frame it to put on the wall in the den you need ALL the pieces.

You know people complain that hurricane chasers, forecasters are obsessed with weather. Okay, I'll take that. But we are all obsessed with something aren't we? Grandparents posting pics online, cat videos secretly viewed from a bathroom where no one will see you watching them and people who put together huge puzzles. The world floats by a progression of political analysis on CNN, MSNBC and FOX depending on which political view you obsess on as a person somewhere puts together a 10,000 piece puzzle. People walk miles looking for a Pokemon figure in a virtual blended world to post online to friends they have never seen. We live in a world where we all have obsessions. One of my obsessions is weather, tropical weather, winter weather and hurricane history. Welcome to my world.

The hurricane season is a puzzle put together in real time and it is multidimensional and it happens in the real world. There are virtual players that we call models and they produce a dazzling array of possibilities in ever changing pictures that update in real time every so many hours. Note these are merely possible resolutions to the puzzle called "Hurricane Season 2016" and the ten day weather forecast. Models spin up possible solutions otherwise known as a named hurricane and then the next day they take away the name and the day after it was as if the possible hurricane was never there at all. You win some, you lose a lot is pretty much how that goes. Our modeling today is way better than it was ten years ago and world's better than it was 20 years ago. That said... twenty years from now meteorologists will make fun of how bad the GFS and the EURO were back in the old days. Change is the one constant and yet something called climatology tends to win most games hands down.

Another constant is we keep watching.
Things are always evolving.
Stay tuned.
Check back often.
Y'all come back now...

2005. Wow High Low gowns were in style then too...

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps If I win the lotto I'm renting this end all perfect condo.
Wow could dance on that balcony under the stars..
..and watch the clouds build out over the Glades.

I love Coral Gables.
Grew up near there before my parents moved to Miami Beach.
Okay I love Miami Beach also.
But a balcony in Coral Gables in all directions.
Sunrise, sunset and Miracle Mile below.
And every afternoon storms form over the Everglades...
..and move slowly East over Miami.
What a perch.


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