Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Sunday, July 10, 2016

July Climo Rules the Caribbean and Atlantic. Why That Wave Isn't Gonna Develop. Home Grown Action Could Happen.. Hot Slow Days of July.

People ask me why I don't think that tropical wave in the Caribbean won't develop. They ask often. They see it on their computer screens and it looks healthy. I mean it made it across the Atlantic where it should have died squeezed dry by the huge high. I can say things like "it doesn't really have model support" as these days if a wave does not get the blessing of one of the better models it's ignored by almost everyone.

The dry air and Saharan Dust is truly visible behind the tropical wave in the rear view mirror. Put this in motion and you see it sailing along singing a song. It's like watching a train wreck in slow motion...

sat_wv_east_loop-12.gif (640×512)

See that dark hole in the Caribbean.

Strong shear zone.
And that's not a surprise that's the rule this time of year.
If it doesn't get a name and eye wall right here... rarely will.

Models know that.
Climo knows that.

We just are not there yet?

For one the high has to lift a bit.
It's suppressing action.
This wave got around that problem by riding low.
Sneaking in under the radar so to speak.

The wave is there it's written about by the NHC.
And tropical waves will continue moving west with convection.

None of the models have anything developing worth mentioning.
That could change the next few days
Usually we wait til the end of July for the Atlantic to be ready.
And when I say the end of July it's often August.

In 1996 the E storm did not form until August 19th.

July had Ceasar and Dolly cruise west bound in the Caribbean

Why do I bring up 1996?
It's a sort of classic year similar to this year in ways.
Huge High.

Only one hurricane got away and swam like a fish.

Isidore went north.
Swam like a fish.
All the other little fishies swam west about the high.
Some caused problems.
Some did not.

This is the way it goes.
Almost every year.

We wait for Climo.
We wait til it's not soon soon or too early.

Sometimes home grown storms develop.
Close in and not always seen far in advance by models.
Models show "something" and then BAMN
Home Grown.

That simple.

See the graph. We are at July 10th.

The early storms mean we will most likely get further down the list.

Storms like Colin were a step stool to a higher total number of storms.

Keep watching.
Sometimes something changes fast.
Faster than the long term models can predict.
Things happen in real time.
But they are almost always governed by Climo.

Love Darius Rucker.
Enjoy the music.

And keep following along as we wait for something to pop!!

Mean while .. while waiting for football to begin...
Some people have hobbies currently.
Mike at Spaghetti Models has NASCAR and his daughter's summer.
Feel free to help him

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps yes I see it... trust me I see it.

I want football. NFL Football.
And I want things to start spinning... 


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