A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!
Sunday, July 10, 2016
July Climo Rules the Caribbean and Atlantic. Why That Wave Isn't Gonna Develop. Home Grown Action Could Happen.. Hot Slow Days of July.
People ask me why I don't think that tropical wave in the Caribbean won't develop. They ask often. They see it on their computer screens and it looks healthy. I mean it made it across the Atlantic where it should have died squeezed dry by the huge high. I can say things like "it doesn't really have model support" as these days if a wave does not get the blessing of one of the better models it's ignored by almost everyone.
The dry air and Saharan Dust is truly visible behind the tropical wave in the rear view mirror. Put this in motion and you see it sailing along singing a song. It's like watching a train wreck in slow motion...
See that dark hole in the Caribbean.
Strong shear zone.
And that's not a surprise that's the rule this time of year.
If it doesn't get a name and eye wall right here...
...it rarely will.
Models know that.
Climo knows that.
We just are not there yet?
For one the high has to lift a bit.
It's suppressing action.
This wave got around that problem by riding low.
Sneaking in under the radar so to speak.
The wave is there it's written about by the NHC.
And tropical waves will continue moving west with convection.
None of the models have anything developing worth mentioning.
That could change the next few days
Usually we wait til the end of July for the Atlantic to be ready.
And when I say the end of July it's often August.
In 1996 the E storm did not form until August 19th.
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm