Going back to the basics today.
On this day when we wonder where things are going economically...
...tropically speaking it's quiet.
Yes we have a small weak, disorganized tropical disturbance in the BOC.
Officially that's a tropical disturbance.
It has no organization as of yet.
But it's Invest 95L
Low in the BOC
(sort of like the market today...)
The wave train from Africa is evident but suppressed to the South still.
Epac is trying to percolate but having problems.
They begin 2 weeks before we do so...
This is a good indicator of the absence of El Nino.
I'm going to oddly compare today in the tropics to the financial markets.
We have no real historical basis to define this period.
Some say La Nina is coming on gang buster style.
La Nina is beginning to trend towards peaking eventually.
Some say we are neutral until we go La Nina.
Everyone says something is the point.
The proof will be in the pudding.
Mango pudding, banana pudding, coconut pudding..
North Atlantic is oddly hot...
...all the way to England or Great Britain which ever you prefer.
Worth remembering their weather is affected by the Hurricane Season.
Our Hurricanes often curve out to sea and end up there...
Our Fish storms save the East Coast..
..and end up over there.
We are all connected in ways.
The proof will be in the pudding Come September.
Til then we have weak BOC low pressure areas.
When they spin up it's a reminder El Nino is gone.
Why? Low Shear.
Low Shear in the Gulf of Mexico could be a problem soon.
When a system forms south of Cuba and heads NW ...
...through the Yucatan Channel towards the poles.
TX, LA, MS, AL and FL stand in their way.
When a wave pulls north over the islands and moves WNW...
... we will have a problem.
Problem = Major Hurricane
Bigger Problem = Major Hurricane Spinning WNW
Watch those frontal boundaries...
The front that was supposed to save Florida from Andrew..
This is that in between time in the tropics.
Not friendly today.
Much going on behind the scenes.
BOC may make a fast attempt at organization.
Again sort of meh like but watching.
That diving feature is more of a problem than Saharan Dust today.
So going to leave the global view of the Atlantic Tropical Weather Basin..
...and talk on something very serious and rarely discussed.
The dangers of every day weather.
Flash floods in the Appalachian towns.
Fast moving thunderstorms across the plains.
Florida Thunderstorms that blow up fast along the West Coast towns.
We worry on hurricanes and twisters and yet...
More people die yearly from weather related problems that seem mundane.
Let's take the heat warnings.
4 people at least died in Phoenix Arizona from Heat related problems.
Two of them young.. out exercising.
Youth do think they are invincible.
Exercise in an Air Conditioned Gym please.
When there's record heat forecast do not go biking or hiking.
Wait a day. Watch the weather.
A small sailboat left port the other day with a beautiful family.
Every family's dream in Florida is to have a sailboat.
Many dream of living on said sailboat ..
Well.. those who don't motorboat or who are land lovers.
Heart breaking really. Happens.
Happens often. More often than a land falling Hurricane.
There were high seas. A regular storm.
Questions on the sailboat itself.
Rough seas and thunderstorms.
A bad decision.
We all make bad decisions rarely are they life threatening.
I know a few I'd like to take back...
Flash Floods in West Virginia happen.
History has shown that.
As stated on MSNBC this morning a channel I watch these days often..
Towns in that area sprang up along the rivers.
Every twist and bend of the river provided life.
Power for mills.
Navigation and transportation.
Water the source of life.
And when the weather changes fast...
The flash flooding river can bring death.
Flash floods happen.
Even if in that guy on air says it never has happened in his life time..
...it has happened trust me.
A shopping area with a motel and hundreds of people are cut off ..
They spend the night last night cut off but alive.
A 3 year old toddler was washed away ...
Another little boy washed away in a foot of fast moving water died.
Five people are not alive.
Homes, roads and normal washed away.
There was no model driven discussion for five days out this could happen.
There was discussion of bad weather in that part of the country.
Think of it as a soft target weather wise.
We all worry on those big hard targets like Miami and Galveston.
We forget about the little towns near the bend in a river..
...we forget about Flash Floods.
Many in Miami and Galveston have Hurricane Amnesia ..
Everyone worries on hurricanes, twisters and earthquakes.
And yet it's the every day bad random weather stories that take lives daily.
Sometimes West Virginia gets Flash Floods from Hurricanes.
Other times every day systems moving East create localized flash floods.
Texas has that problem in Hill Country also.
The very lay of the land can be he hidden enemy.
A map of that area from Google.
A river runs through it.
So while worrying on the Dow Jones going down, down, down
530 points down as I write this...
Remember 5 people died in yesterday's flash floods in West Virginia.
Remember that El Nino is gone.
La Nina is coming on.
Are you prepared for a hurricane making landfall this year?
Do you keep your weather app on?
Do you know where your old fashioned weather radio is?
Do you check it daily for late breaking weather news of any kind?
While we wait to see how fast La Nina develops.
How fast the Saharan Dust fades away.
How fast the GFS and EURO get updated and revised...
While we watch every long range model going burp in the tropical night..
Are you watching the every day weather where you live?
Think about it...
It's more important than worrying if Invest 95L develops.
If it does I'll update the blog...
But today's real story is the uncertainties.
Uncertainties on the Hurricane Season.
Uncertainties of the Stock Market.
You can worry on the EURO models or the EURO union.
Don't forget to pay attention to the ebb and flow of life every day.
Think Global. Act Local.
@bobbistorm on Twitter