A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!
Wednesday, June 22, 2016
Tropics Quiet Today But Models Hinting at Development in the Carib. Could Tropical Trouble Mess Up the July 4th Weekend for Some Place Along the GOM?
Hump day in the Tropics.
Nothing really happening.
A west bound tropical wave is crossing the ocean..
No named storms.
No designated Invest.
No Floater on the Satellite Loops.
Just a Banana Wind blowing in the tropics.
And weather people tweeting on possibilities online.
A banana wind is defined as when there's a steady breeze blowing and the banana trees sway causing the scent of fresh bananas to fill the air. I'd add that means it's warm and when you are in the tropics branches always sway be they banana trees or palm trees. Yup in the tropics the tree branches sway in the tropical breeze. It's just another day in the tropics and while the temperature is climbing, the clouds are building and tropical meteorology mets debate when the next tropical system will spring to life.
So let me show you a day in the life of a tropical weather person.
Here we have some excellent discussion on the GFS model.
Levi Cowan sheds some light on the reality of the GFS output.
DaBuh comments on his thoughts.
We are talking about the GFS model that shows something developing.
Long range it shows something developing.
As in past the five day...
The NHC reminds us nothing is developing in the next 5 days.
See on www.spaghettimodels.com nothing is highlighted in purple.
Well nothing in the Atlantic or GOM or Carib.. nope NADA.
Conditions get better in a week or so.
Many online are showing the end game on that model.
End game as a system forming in the Carib...
...going North bound into the GOM means:
Anything past five days in my book is Fantasy Land.
Especially when there is no designated system currently.
A voice of calm reason is Tweeted...
A reminder that no other model is really JUMPING on it.
It being the hints at possible tropical system down the road.
Understand if something forms in the last week in June.
And moves Northish slowly over hot water.
It could possibly be a factor for July 4th Weekend.
I will mention that on Day 7 the strong high over the GOM...
Seems to move to the right...East.
That would allow the GOM to be visited by a tropical system.
Not talking Tex Mex here.
Be warned Earl storms tend to get messy ...
Once in a while you can put in #Earl or #TD5...
...and see if anything pops up.
Til then it's all discussion on the GFS model .. a bit on the EURO
You can check this out for yourself.
Please be careful.
Do not get lost on Twitter.
And make sure you put in words like "tropics" when searching GFS
Or you may end up with results like this....
Add in Euro or NAM or just rely on me to let you know what's what.
An easy way to watch for tweets on tropical development ...
...is by looking on the bottom right of the Spaghetti Models page.
Mike added a nice scroll bar.
You can scroll through and see if anything wets your whistle.
If anything shows any solid chance of developing.
I'll be all over it.
For now... dream on..
Watch your local NWS for your local weather.
It's supposed to be 100 degrees in my neck of the woods tomorrow.
Make sure your children and pets drink water often.
Do not leave anything in your car...
...the best way to deal with the dog days of summer is to ...
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm