Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Wednesday, June 15, 2016

Cape Verde Wave - Yellow Invest in GOM 20% - Still Set for Coastal Low Off Carolinas

Let's start with the obvious.
There is a yellow circle with 20% chances of developing.
I don't like to ignore the obvious.

There is a chance that a tropical depression could form in the BOC.
Only a few models take this to Tropical Storm strength.
Some barely notice it at all.
High to the North should hold tight.
An area of low pressure could form...
...cradled tight down in the curve of the BOC.
Sort of like a baby being rocked slowly, safely, snug as a bug.
And then it begins to spin slowly reaches out it's arms and cries..
Or it makes a run towards the Tex Mex area.

Worth noting the EPAC may come alive soon.
If so that steals the energy from BOC and GOM.
So far it's been dry as Oklahoma in the dirty 30s.

sat_wv_west_loop-12.gif (640×512)

Orange in the Epac.
Higher chances there than in the BOC currently.

This is as typical as it gets for June.
Usually in normal years this is the first named system.
You really can't get the season rocking and rolling without a BOC TD.

Again Climo June

As for the system off the East Coast that may develop... may develop but there's no yellow circle.
There's no Invest.
It's mostly speculation and a low of some kind should set up.
When it does I'll be all over it. 
More likely it lingers around Carolinas but hard to say.
Models still differ on solution and intensity.
North path is still there as mentioned earlier.
More likely it stays South.
But until it comes out of stealth mode it's speculation.

What interests me more is a system far way.
Really far away and most likely will go away.

That's a tropical wave off of Africa.
South of Cape Verde Islands.
Nicely organized for this time of year.
Hey nicely organized for any time of year.

If you see it move onto the playing field here.
Keep watching it... 
Rarely do early waves make it across.

sat_wv_east_loop-12.gif (640×512)

For now it's all about the yellow circle in the BOC.
But sooner rather than later the Atlantic is going to be ready for business.

Pre Season Cape Verde Waves looking ready to rumble.

Besos BobbiStorm

Ps... Never say never. 


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