Tropical Development Down the Road. Long Road but Models Consistently Show Development in Atlantic

Models have been developing a Tropical Low off the SE Coast.

GFS moves the Low around in a similar way as Bonnie & Beryl

The Euro has a more tantalizing evolution.

It takes said Low up towards the NE states.

Impacting possibility NJ NY NE 

You get the idea.

2016 seems to be prime time for the Atlantic.

From the SE Coast to Carolinas to Mid Atlantic and NE

Models continue to develop home grown set ups near the coast.

Still a bit far out.

And home grown systems have their own quirks.

Definition quirks: a peculiar behavioral habit.

Keep watching.

My job here is to show you where you should be watching.

Just in case you are traveling or live near that peculiar location

There is also the possibility of something down deep in BOC.

Also the monsoon trof in SA is active but shooting West for now.

Surfers watch these features with longing.

Surfers watch the weather way good.

Surfers, golfers, fishermen and boats at sea.

Today nothing is going on except blue skies and hot sunshine.

There is a front evaporating across Florida and the Atlantic.

An area of colorful convection is predictably congregating.

Note the wave rolling off of Africa.

Keep those waves in mind.

When the upper level winds cooperate.

And the High sets up to keep those waves rolling West bound.

It's common to see one of those waves develop.

The quirks of this year set up the Atlantic Coast 

and the Gulf of Mexico for:

Landfalling tropical cyclones.

Got it?

An illustration of this set up when the High is in place is 1998

A year when quirky patterns developed was 2012.

Note how the tracks of storms trace each other ....

...across the Atlantic and GOM.

Long term Climo rules

Short term oddities occur like 1935 with criss cross tracks.

And backward storms.

Note the X is where the storm ended...

Lessons Learned?

Each year is different and unique.

There are always similarities.

Patterns persist in particular years.

2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season is still a season being written in real time.

Only in the rear view mirror will be know how the dots connect.

Keep watching.

Possible trouble beginning to show up soon.

BobbiStorm's Botton Line... 

Don't turn your backs on the tropics this particular year.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Again the particular area that shows up on models is SE Atlantic Coast.