Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Saturday, June 04, 2016

Invest 93L 80% Chances of Being Colin or a TD... Looks Meh tonight. But it's a process...Hurricane History on June Storms. Messy system that will make Florida a messy place according to Models.

80% Red Odds as of 8 PM

Track more of less the same.
A bit of discussion needed on timing and landfall.
If this becomes Colin and NHC is 80% sure.

This is due to modeling being so good it is calling formation.
Because to look at it... it's sort of meh...

avn0-lalo.gif (720×480)

Um...that's what we are discussing here.
It's very disorganized currently but things are going on.
Actually disorganized might be an over achiever sort of comment.
But there's actually something going on.

Actually it is coming together a bit.
Hard to see in this loop.

It's the last dark red circle.. in theory.
That is what could be the center of this tropical mess.

avn_lalo-animated.gif (720×480)

Boom... last few frames.
Has to maintain that though.

I will be updating this blog with more information.
So check back in a little bit.
There are some history lessons to learn.
And again I complained the other day on the timing.
I said there may be a fly in the ointment if you remember.
And, I think the timing is the fly ..
...the ointment is the Texas Low.
I see the diving air on the water vapor loop.
I also see the Texas Low not moving much.

sat_wv_east_loop-12.gif (640×512)

If you remember the original forecast for Bonnie....
..... was for her to hit the road fast.
Bonnie did not move as fast as forecast.
The original forecast track was right but the timing generally was wrong.
The whole lingering, two step dance she did was not in the original plan.

The models over played the strength of the feature that would pick her up.
I've been concerned that the models are not reading that well here either.
But I'd love to be wrong.

A long wet messy tropical storm or even depression can be a pain.

I'll be back later and add thoughts at the end of the blog.
So check back later.

For now we are watching it come together... slowly.
And with the current shear I don't see her doing that faster tomorrow.
I do believe if this process tonight continues ...
...and they send in the planes and they find a center.
We could have an upgrade to Tropical Depression.
BUT... has to do a lot more than it's doing now.

Cause tonight it's kind of meh still.
But it's got potential.

I'm concerned it will linger and move slowly across Florida.

And the end game is not set in stone.

It's entirely possible it gets further north and to the left of Tampa.
Up near the Big Bend, Cedar Key ...
...but the weather will remain over all of Florida until it's gone.

So when I say messy I mean messy.

I'll update soon.

Oh and Bonnie.. is still out there.
Didn't move as fast out to sea as expected.
It's out to sea but has not gone to Europe yet.

Steering currents are not that strong currently.

And there may be competing wannabe centers.
Sometimes weak tropical storms in formation..
...hand off energy back and forth
Until one center grabs it and goes the distance.

A lot like this...
..sometimes crazy works

Understand where the center develops is important.
Because models start from that point.
Otherwise you get a wide spread.
The models that show to the north could verify.
So could models further to the south..
Depending on where the actual center develops.

From this image it's hard to say.
Over the next 12 to 24 hours we will know more.

Is the center closer to the Yucatan over some say.
Or is it out to the East... 
Or will the energy shift back and forth?
Is a high building in aloft or is shear too strong? many questions.

Further dissecting images.

Shear is there and an issue for now.
Winds take whatever towards FL.
Jet Stream takes it NE eventually.

93L_intensity_latest.png (768×600)

Intensity is all over the place.

Again this is due to uncertainty in track, timing and center.

Why I called it "meh" tonight.
If u need 2 Google that ;)

That's a water vapor image from LSU.
Note the Texas Low is being pulled.
So far it's hung tight rooted to the spot.
It's stretching.
There is a look of a building system down below.
Will the shear allow Invest 93L to become Colin or TD3?

I also wanted to add here it's great to see good mets online.
Over the years I've enjoyed
They have a message board I enjoy as I do

Good to see input there.

I post there as LoisCane and will incorporate what I wrote here ...
The truth is that history books are littered with June storms that hit Florida.
It's the main place they go after forming near the Yucatan.
This is like saying brides usually wear white.

track.gif (640×512)

1885 a really long time ago..

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An actual June hurricane.

A busy year that could be an analog to this year.

track.gif (640×512)

I post that pic to show you there were 2 June storms.

June 1902 shows a similar track as forecast.

track.gif (640×512)

Again where does Colin forms changes everything.

Then 1936 the year after the Big Labor Day Storm.

track.gif (640×512)

A really hard right with that storm.

This is more than Alma, Agnes and Alberto.
Those were recent storms.
But going back to the 1900s, 1800s and beyond that had June storms.
Most down near the Yucatan headed towards FL .. 

Also note 1936 was a busy year.

track.gif (640×512)

What will 2016 really be like?
Busy most likely.
Blame it on La Nina ...
Blame it on the election..
(Donna 1960, Sandy 2012)
Blame it on climo... 

June Hurricanes and Tropical Storms

atlantic-hurricanes-june-2013-paths-of-origin-map-caribbean-sea-into-gulf-of-mexico-texas-or-florida.jpg (640×480)

BOC usually Tex Mex
Yucatan/Carib usually Florida

Models have been very consistent bringing it to FL

Lastly NWS Miami has reminded people of the risk of tornadoes.
Tornadoes in Tropical Storms form far from the center.
Often in the tail that drags across other parts of Florida.
So just because this is headed towards ______
Does not mean that ____ could be at risk of tornadoes.
And flooding.. depending on forward speed.

Stay tuned
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps my daughter says Medellin Colombia is awesome.
Great... storm chasing is easy compared to raising kids. 
Trust me.


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