A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!
Saturday, June 04, 2016
Invest 93L 80% Chances of Being Colin or a TD... Looks Meh tonight. But it's a process...Hurricane History on June Storms. Messy system that will make Florida a messy place according to Models.
80% Red Odds as of 8 PM
Track more of less the same.
A bit of discussion needed on timing and landfall.
If this becomes Colin and NHC is 80% sure.
This is due to modeling being so good it is calling formation.
Because to look at it... it's sort of meh...
Um...that's what we are discussing here.
It's very disorganized currently but things are going on.
Actually disorganized might be an over achiever sort of comment.
But there's actually something going on.
Actually it is coming together a bit.
Hard to see in this loop.
It's the last dark red circle.. in theory.
That is what could be the center of this tropical mess.
Boom... last few frames.
Has to maintain that though.
I will be updating this blog with more information.
So check back in a little bit.
There are some history lessons to learn.
And again I complained the other day on the timing.
I said there may be a fly in the ointment if you remember.
And, I think the timing is the fly ..
...the ointment is the Texas Low.
I see the diving air on the water vapor loop.
I also see the Texas Low not moving much.
If you remember the original forecast for Bonnie....
..... was for her to hit the road fast.
Bonnie did not move as fast as forecast.
The original forecast track was right but the timing generally was wrong.
The whole lingering, two step dance she did was not in the original plan.
The models over played the strength of the feature that would pick her up.
I've been concerned that the models are not reading that well here either.
But I'd love to be wrong.
A long wet messy tropical storm or even depression can be a pain.
I'll be back later and add thoughts at the end of the blog.
So check back later.
For now we are watching it come together... slowly.
And with the current shear I don't see her doing that faster tomorrow.
I do believe if this process tonight continues ...
...and they send in the planes and they find a center.
We could have an upgrade to Tropical Depression.
BUT... has to do a lot more than it's doing now.
Cause tonight it's kind of meh still.
But it's got potential.
I'm concerned it will linger and move slowly across Florida.
And the end game is not set in stone.
It's entirely possible it gets further north and to the left of Tampa.
Up near the Big Bend, Cedar Key ...
...but the weather will remain over all of Florida until it's gone.
So when I say messy I mean messy.
I'll update soon.
Oh and Bonnie.. is still out there.
Didn't move as fast out to sea as expected.
It's out to sea but has not gone to Europe yet.
Steering currents are not that strong currently.
And there may be competing wannabe centers.
Sometimes weak tropical storms in formation..
...hand off energy back and forth
Until one center grabs it and goes the distance.
A lot like this...
..sometimes crazy works
Understand where the center develops is important.
Because models start from that point.
Otherwise you get a wide spread.
The models that show to the north could verify.
So could models further to the south..
Depending on where the actual center develops.
From this image it's hard to say.
Over the next 12 to 24 hours we will know more.
Is the center closer to the Yucatan over land..as some say.
Or is it out to the East...
Or will the energy shift back and forth?
Is a high building in aloft or is shear too strong?
Questions...so many questions.
Further dissecting www.spaghettimodels.com images.
Shear is there and an issue for now.
Winds take whatever towards FL.
Jet Stream takes it NE eventually.
Intensity is all over the place.
Again this is due to uncertainty in track, timing and center.
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm