Quick update as of 8 PM Friday
Invest 93L has 70% red odds of forming.
That's Torch Red for Smoking Hot Tropical Formation Possibilities.
Seriously no change to track forecast.
Keep watching the area as it moves towards the Yucatan
Remember right now we are watching for lowering pressures.
Not convection that flares up and quiets down...
..and then flares up again.
Consistency and lowering pressures.
Development of a center even at mid-levels.
* * *
Brief update to say Bonnie is a Tropical Storm AGAIN... this is a storm that doesn't know when to quit.
...BONNIE AGAIN BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM...
That's the headline from the NHC... says it all.
Moving out to sea and not a danger to Bermuda so it's mainly ships at sea and more rain for Europe.
Watch that system in Texas above as it can be a game changer or game maker with regard to Colin.
Invest 93L still orange as of 5 PM in the Caribbean.
It will be interesting to see if they up it to red or keep it orange.
As I showed earlier in a post you should read...
...all models take this towards Florida currently.
Note the Florida Keys and Key West are in the orange grid.
Cedar Key is on the North side of the grid.
It's a grid not a cone, keep that in mind.
The area in the Caribbean is officially Invest 93L
Still a mess of moisture right now.
You can view both these systems on the long, wide WV loop.
Here's a link on Tampa Sarasota Hurricane History
Pick your favorite loop and watch it come together.
Or perhaps it stays weak and messy.
My best friend Sharon says and I quote:
"I see the blobs in GOM they gonna come and take out Tampa"
Her call is it's weak.. "just a mess"
Hmnnn intensity models might agree.
But that's now not then and when is the issue here.
I never discount her.
Sharon insisted Andrew was not catching the trof . . .
If you watch that WV Loop you see the moisture will merge in GOM.
The GOM is filled with tropical moisture.
IF shear calms down we could have problems.
When I say "problems" I mean down the road not now.
Note that model threads the needle of Tampa Bay
Rob of Crown Weather and I were talking earlier.
I agree with his logic.
Really my only question is timing as timing affects the turn to the right.
Only thing for sure is rain is on the way.
Read the previous post as it has more relevant details.
This post is an update of the previous one.
Somewhere in that mess below is Invest 93L
@bobbistorm on Twitter
Stay on top of news @tropicalupdate on Twitter
Ps You ask what the big deal is if it's only a weak TS?
A matter of perspective... when it's your house, your street.
A big deal.. a big deal of flooding in Tampa Bay possible.
A lot of cities around there that could be impacted.
Longer post with more details worth reading.