Update as of 11 PM.
Tropical Depression Bonnie...
..remains Tropical Depression Bonnie.
Keep reading please..
You can see here the spin on TD Bonnie.
You can also see the front that will pick Bonnie up.
I drove through some of those storms moving East.
Intense, wonderful line of storms.
Moving East for a date with Bonnie.
So for now we have Bonnie spinning on the coast waiting...
...for her ticket to Europe where it's already flooded.
Exit Bonnie Stage Right
Next player will be in the GOM.
Remember it's the first week in June.
How do you like the 2016 Hurricane Season now?
In theory this area down in the Caribbean..
Moves N near the Yucatan.
Comes together in the GOM
Then takes aim on Florida.
Oh a frontal boundary is involved.
Ironically the front that pushes Bonnie away.
Helps propel the next system North.
Well there are 2 fronts involved here.
Again when you have fronts on the map...
...you get trouble.
There's ample moisture.
When shear relaxes...
Pressures may drop.
NHC at 40% Thursday night for development.
That's orange circle if you are keeping track.
So far this is a fast moving system.
You can see the two frontal boundaries here above.
Weak, stalled out front.
Next zoom, zoom, zooming front.
This plays out this way if the 2nd front is as tough as forecast.
Otherwise there is a fly in the ointment for TS Colin.
For now most say a Tropical Storm will form.
There are the hypers and deniers both sides of the same coin.
I try and work within bounds of reality ...
Another track done by Hurricane Tracker App
They also add this thought...
A lot of ifs ands and buts with Colin.
We are waiting for Colin...
Where it forms affects the track greatly.
The speed and timing of it's formation also affects track.
You miss that open door...the next bus...
You get the idea.
In life and tropical meteorology everything is timing.
Currently we don't have anything in the Caribbean.
We have nothing moving towards Florida.
This is modeling predicting formation of tropical development.
We have yellow crayons and orange crayons...
...and oh we love that red crayon.
We are drawing possibilities with words and graphics.
So how do you like the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season Now?
Perhaps you might want to start making a plan?
Again one problem with Florida Tropical Storms in June.
They are often lopsided and messy.
Note the convection on this model is misplaced to the right.
Note the graphics above show similar June storms over Florida.
@Bobbistorm on Twitter
Again a new Twitter feed is up on www.spaghettimodels.com