Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Thursday, May 26, 2016

70% Bonnie For now models lock on Charleston then ...depends on Bonnie

Remember the old days when I used to write without graphics? I'm on vacation with many commitments as its a working vacation. I'm speaking in NYC and in theory the Hurricane Season doesn't begin til June 1st... Oh well on that theory. Isn't Mother Nature fun... She decides when the hurricane season begins unlike say NFL football season. No surprises there. Lots of surprises always with the Hurricane Season.

Surprisingly I woke up this morning to find out both the GFS and the EURO agree with my early all on Charleston. I have felt that was a more realistic landfall point than many I read others say. That said... Until this Low wraps, comes together (insert song cue) gels...all bets are off on the exact evolution ... Exact landfall... Exact end game.

Yes the NHC has upped the odds to 70 percent for the 5 day but beyond that much is up for grabs.

For example the models that are all over Spaghetti Models online show possibilities of Bonnie going far inland..and/or bouncing back towards the ocean staying with us for quite a while. The devil is in the details. Those are the details the NHC can't show in a red alert graphic nor can we see in our meteorological crystal balls.... Until Bonnie forms.

This morning you can see a slow coming together more like a collision of factors that will create spin and lift off.

As always timing is everything with tropical systems especially as it relates to long term track options.

Yes its Memorial Day Weekend and this may take a bite out of the holiday economics of small beach towns hoping to start $ummer off with a bang. Money flows like weather. People will go inland up to the mountains (Carolinas have so many options) or go to the movies are mall. Small great beach towns like Ocean Isles Beach may get the short end of the proverbial stick.

But some models show Bonnie going well inland towards said mountains while others show it cruising up the Interstate. has ALL the models that's where the name came from... Duh :)

Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to go in Friday.

Lastly think on this..
As this system presumably Bonnie finally gets a center and moves towards low shear and high water temperatures over the Gulfstream it will spun up FAST as these home grown coastal lows do. Sometimes they meet expectations and sometimes they exceed them.

the Wonderful Weather Wizards of Oz I mean the NHC will speak again later tho afternoon. Til then enjoy the day and the loops.

I'll update when there's are more details !!

Below is the discussion from the NHC.

Besos Bobbistorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps again thanks for your patience with any grammatical errors..

"With the Memorial Day weekend
approaching, all interests along the southeast coast from Georgia
through North Carolina should monitor the progress of this low. An
Air Force reconnaissance plane will be scheduled to investigate
this low on Friday. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on
this disturbance will be issued by 3 PM EDT today.  For additional
information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent"


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