Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Thursday, June 02, 2016

Bonnie Reborn Again? Bonnie Upgrade.... Reorganized Just off OBX. GOM System Stares at FL

1st morning  visible.

This morning officially around 11 AM Bonnie will be Bonnie again.
Tropical Depression Bonnie.
First morning visible made that apparent.

Bonnie maintained it's development over night.
Convection complete with banding.

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Hugely impressive flare up compared to two days ago.
Again I did say that if it moved out over water this could happen.
Especially the long time over water and warmer water temps... a bit.

She wants to spin...what can I say?

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Not expecting much from this however...
..odd things happen in the North Atlantic.
And earlier this year we spoke on warmer waters than usual being there.

People ask me why they name weak storms.
Weak storms going nowhere fast.
Truth in forecasting.
It is what it is.

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Current models take it out to sea.
Out to the shipping lanes.
Remember them?
Perfect Storm was a book before the movie.
It was a real life storm before the book.
There are still ships at sea...

Moving on... 
In the GOM we have a yellow area of concern.
20% chances for now in the long term.

This will be a rainmaker for parts of Florida.
Thankfully NOT Texas.
But Texas is being slammed with tropical moisture.
From the GOM mixing with other features.
But this is a Florida feature.

IF this storm forms this year will be repeating 2012 trends.

The track above is from Debby the 4th storm of the busy 2012 season.
After 2 weak storms like Bonnie were off the East Coast.
This is beginning to bug me in an analog way.
We use analogs in hurricane prediction.
I rarely pick one but go with those who do..
But this is something to keep an eye on and remember.

Remember two things this today.
Bonnie will go out to sea.
Another weak but strong enough cold front will grab her.
Like love late in life Bonnie will find her front.
This one is a bit weak so I think she'll move slower than forecast.
But, behind this one is a stronger one forecast to grab her.
Then again we've said that before. 
It's hot, it's June. Who knows?

In the GOM there is currently nothing.
But something MAY form...
And it will be a Florida storm.
GFS likes Tampa.
Then again I like Tampa.
Big Bend?
Don't see how this goes far to the South but...
...depends on where it forms.
Where they initiate advisories.
They should do that at 11 this morning.
That's the word from the NHC but it could change.

Until it's Tropical Depression Bonnie again...'s the remnants of Bonnie.
IF the winds are there it could be TS Bonnie.
But time will tell.

And the area in the GOM is a long term solution.

Have a good day.
Check back later it's that kind of day.

Besos BobbiStorm

Ps.... please read the previous post.
It is a lesson in Hurricane History.
History repeats.
Knowledge is power.

Ps Yellow Circle IF it forms should be a Florida storm.
You'd need a stronger front to take it up towards Alabama.

Time will tell. 
It's just a yellow circle for now..


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