A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!
Monday, June 06, 2016
TS Colin Multiple Center Madness 50 MPH Forecast to Increase in Intensity. Recon Finds Multiple New Centers 1 Far From the Old One.. Stay tuned.......
Problems with Colin are complex.
Let's start with the extremely honest discussion from the NHC. There are multiple centers and they are not close to each other. Easy to write off such a system and just keep extrapolating the track and remind people it's a weak disorganized storm. However it seems there is extreme truth in forecasting suddenly and they admit they have and I quote "low confidence initial position splits the difference between these two features" but recon found very high winds in squally areas not necessarily associated with the center or the other center so they upped the intensity (nudged it is the best word) upwards a bit...
Yeah easy to say if Colin was a person he would need mucho counseling, meds and a week off in Colombia but this is a strong, large area of extremely bad weather carrying with it the definite possibility of multiple tornadoes (hey it has multiple centers so anything is possible) and as Jim Cantore says "nasty weather" and high tides.
So we have very strong winds but they are not sustained winds in a specific center but the whole large weather mass is moving towards Florida, mostly Northern Florida and will most likely come ashore (pick a center) somewhere between Destin and Cedar Key .... however Tampa Bay is getting credit for all the weather but no glory for landfall. In fact the town that gets the landfall town may see the best weather in
Florida. Go figure.
Welcome to 2016 Atlantic Season. The hurricane in January around Martin Luther King Day should have been a heads up. Beryl should have been another tap in the head. Colin will be a slap in the face.
That's my discussion. Let's look at Colin. See on the top of the screen? See how suddenly the energy or intensity in Colin jumps about. It's as if it has it's own Star Trek Transporter thing going on and suddenly Colin beamed up into the Middle of the Gulf of Mexico for a while then bounced around within the larger red mass of weather carrying with it strong winds and possible tornadoes with torrential rain.
If you are the NHC what do you do? It's not moving faster than a speeding bullet so you can't call it a derecho and you can't downgrade it or wish it away. Luckily the front is supposed to pick it up and kick it out to sea faster than a ball in a pinball machine.
The only thing for sure in that pinball game above is...
..the ball shooting through the barrel after you pull the plunger.
(I Googled it .. it's called a plunger)
After that you can play with the flippers and nudge it a bit.
But the ball is in the tube it's moving fast in a small area..
Then you play the game.
Track of Colin is set in stone ..
It's not going to Louisiana or Texas.
It's center and associate area of weather is going in for a landing.
Oh and by the way.........
There's a new small center possibly go rouge to the NW...
That swirl may come in around Destin.
The center may come in around Panama Center.
(low lying beaches prone to flooding)
I'm into parenthesis today...
The weather mass with the really strong winds is going to be slamming Tampa Bay
And Cedar Key is getting strong weather.
Tornadoes may split the difference or the coin and hit wherever they want.
I'm glad Stephanie Abrams has a problem with that discussion.
I just put on the TV and she's repeating the same line
"splits the difference"
Well my family name was originally Abrams.
Perhaps we are related and there is some logical gene that goes
I've always wanted honestly from the NHC ..
...now we've got it.
A case of multiple personalities or centers.
We've seen this before.
Update at 11 will be interesting.
I'll be back throughout the day.
Good news is that part of Florida is so used to nasty weather.
If it didn't have the name Colin no one in Tampa Bay would noticed.
"oh look Bayshore Drive is flooding again..."
"Yup, saw it on Waze"
Welcome to the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season.
Can't wait to see what tricks Fiona has up her sleeve.. bands...
An eye maybe?
Best graphic I've seen is below.
Oh love this Abrams just told Jim..
... they may have found the center to the west.
Jim said... "that's crazy"
Oh so glad I'm not the one who is losing it this morning.
Indeed... but definitely consistent with this hurricane season.
The map above shows where the storm "may" be going.
The path of the WEATHER is shown inside the green lines.
Sort of like a Field Goal Kicker kicking into the wind.
Tries to adjust to the left.
He aims for Destin and watches the ball come through on Cedar Key..
Great wind sound below
Figures we'd worry one center of Colin is going Wide Left
Sort of like a FSU Miami Football Game
Again this picture tells the real story.
Threat of tornadoes with Colin over Florida
Tornadoes = Power Outages
Damage and possible death.
Not a laughing matter.
Great image from the men in their flying machines.
IF they move the center and go with the NEW possible center..
They would in theory have to change the track.
The saving grace here is Colin is weak.
Imagine trying to forecast a Hurricane Colin doing transporter tricks
@bobbistorm on Twitter
Keep a watch on @tropicalupdate on Twitter
Mike from Spaghetti Models Fame lives near ..
..one of the centers
Ps... They split the difference.
I'm taking a long, long shower
OH CAROLINAS are expected to get weather.
NOTE... Bonus rant.
IF the real center is to the Far West of the current center.
The track may shift more towards Georgia getting more rain.
OFTEN... storms like Colin drag moisture far north into the Appalachians.
But we aren't going there now as the front is picking up the old center and shooting NE
I mean current center that might be the old center..
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm