Hurricane Harbor: 11 PM Update -TS Colin Recon Finds the Center and Upgrades. New Cone. Data Still Coming In...Live Links

11 PM CONE

Watches and warnings extended up and down the coast.

Up to Charleston and down to Cape Kennedy.

That's roughly.

The cone is narrow.

Yet the effects of Colin may be wide spread

The Ole Earl of 1998 shell game is in progress

Yeah and that's a good picture of Ole Earl.

But Earl did pull himself together.

Biggest change tonight from NHC is future intensity.

They now have Colin a 60 MPH storm down the road.

Tonight though they are having problems finding the center recon found.

Colin is back to being "meh" tonight.

And yet models do believe Colin will find it's groove and move towards Florida.

Or they will relocate it further North vs movement.

But it doesn't matter as once it moves it will move.

Steinhatchee is still a good guess for landfall.

As good as any tonight.

New models coming out soon will have better data from today's recon.

Already they have erred on side of a stronger storm.

From up above looking down below it's hard to find Colin

North of the Yucatan and South of Florida

Sometimes energy JUMPS in weak tropical systems.

Colin never looks good at night.

As Mike says a MORNING STORM

Center is to the West of deepest convection on W tip of Cuba.

Radar shows it also.

Radar shows moisture streaming N from Cuba to the SW Coast of Florida.

Actually shows it streaming N into Tampa Bay..

Well you get the idea.

A big messy wet system with a center hard to define.

I'm trusting the models that tomorrow morning the center pops out.

IF banding develops we will see a 60 MPH Colin.

Check back in the morning if you are reading this at 2 am.

Well that's what we do..

We wait for the next model run..

And then we discuss it as if we are doing CSI Tropics

Sweet Tropical Dreams

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

That radar is on www.spaghettimodels.com

Keep reading for earlier discussion and thoughts

Some nice videos

Songs..

LaLaLa

I'll let Patsy sing it...

;)

We're moving so fast the NHC hasn't even updated graphics.

Welcome to living in real time...

2016 Hurricane Season may be like a Reality TV Show.

Tropical Tidbits has a live map as many mets do on their site.

X marks the spot where TD3 became Colin.

As for NHC...
I'm sure they will get those graphics fixed soon.

Note changes to watches and warnings.

Cone

Note that cone covers a good part of I95 thru FL GA

New watch area is for where Colin exits Florida

Approximately like this to give you a frame of reference

Again this more than just about Tampa and Cedar Key, FL.

Note other areas are in the cone and have wind probs.
So from Cape Kennedy up to say Myrtle Beach keep watching.
Eventually this could affect the Outer Banks.

That's down the tropical road.
Still getting in data from recon.

I'll update at the bottom with more info..
So check back often.

Trivia Bonus:

The name Colin is a Scottish baby name.
Gaelic.
It means young dog.. from Cailean.
Perhaps it's on it's way to

For now.. Hurricane Season 2016 is here.
Record breaking earliest C storm ever.

Note usually a fast start can mean a slow season.
That really is about those rare A storms in May..
...than nada until August.

This is not surprising to me as the predicted totals were conservative.

Now is really the time to prepare and take this season seriously.
Trust me Colin is taking in seriously.

Some models actually hint at the D storm behind Colin.
D storm = Danielle

Presenting Tropical Storm Colin.
A one sided storm right now.
Typical for June in the GOM

The center is the white dot on the N tip of Yucatan