11 PM CONE
Watches and warnings extended up and down the coast.
Up to Charleston and down to Cape Kennedy.
The cone is narrow.
Yet the effects of Colin may be wide spread
The Ole Earl of 1998 shell game is in progress
Yeah and that's a good picture of Ole Earl.
But Earl did pull himself together.
Biggest change tonight from NHC is future intensity.
They now have Colin a 60 MPH storm down the road.
Tonight though they are having problems finding the center recon found.
Colin is back to being "meh" tonight.
And yet models do believe Colin will find it's groove and move towards Florida.
Or they will relocate it further North vs movement.
But it doesn't matter as once it moves it will move.
Steinhatchee is still a good guess for landfall.
As good as any tonight.
New models coming out soon will have better data from today's recon.
Already they have erred on side of a stronger storm.
From up above looking down below it's hard to find Colin
North of the Yucatan and South of Florida
Sometimes energy JUMPS in weak tropical systems.
Colin never looks good at night.
As Mike says a MORNING STORM
Center is to the West of deepest convection on W tip of Cuba.
Radar shows it also.
Radar shows moisture streaming N from Cuba to the SW Coast of Florida.
Actually shows it streaming N into Tampa Bay..
Well you get the idea.
A big messy wet system with a center hard to define.
I'm trusting the models that tomorrow morning the center pops out.
IF banding develops we will see a 60 MPH Colin.
Check back in the morning if you are reading this at 2 am.
Well that's what we do..
We wait for the next model run..
And then we discuss it as if we are doing CSI Tropics
Sweet Tropical Dreams
@bobbistorm on Twitter
That radar is on www.spaghettimodels.com
Keep reading for earlier discussion and thoughts
Some nice videos
I'll let Patsy sing it...
We're moving so fast the NHC hasn't even updated graphics.
Welcome to living in real time...
2016 Hurricane Season may be like a Reality TV Show.
Tropical Tidbits has a live map as many mets do on their site.
X marks the spot where TD3 became Colin.
As for NHC...
I'm sure they will get those graphics fixed soon.
Note changes to watches and warnings.
Note that cone covers a good part of I95 thru FL GA
New watch area is for where Colin exits Florida
Approximately like this to give you a frame of reference
Again this more than just about Tampa and Cedar Key, FL.
Note other areas are in the cone and have wind probs.
So from Cape Kennedy up to say Myrtle Beach keep watching.
Eventually this could affect the Outer Banks.
That's down the tropical road.
Still getting in data from recon.
I'll update at the bottom with more info..
So check back often.
The name Colin is a Scottish baby name.
It means young dog.. from Cailean.
Perhaps it's on it's way to
For now.. Hurricane Season 2016 is here.
Record breaking earliest C storm ever.
Note usually a fast start can mean a slow season.
That really is about those rare A storms in May..
...than nada until August.
This is not surprising to me as the predicted totals were conservative.
Now is really the time to prepare and take this season seriously.
Trust me Colin is taking in seriously.
Some models actually hint at the D storm behind Colin.
D storm = Danielle
Presenting Tropical Storm Colin.
A one sided storm right now.
Typical for June in the GOM
The center is the white dot on the N tip of Yucatan
The red and white half a storm is the convection
That weather will start to affect Florida and distant bands to N
Sooner rather than later.
Center is far to the S but the weather is everywhere.
Remember that... a TS is seen as a whole entity more than a Cane.
With hurricanes we watch the eye, the eye wall.
With Tropical Storms we watch the whole system for trouble.
If the moisture wraps on all sides.
We have a different storm than we have now.
For now we have a minimal messy Tropical Storm.
A bull in a china shop moving into GOM
Someone, somewhere gets hit by the bull or in this case Colin.
You can follow along on www.spaghettimodels.com with the hurricane hunters.
Be a hurricane hunter...
Be a hurricane tracker...
Be Hurricane Prepared!!
Mike's Weather Page is live with video from Oldsmar.
Oldsmar is in the Tampa Bay area ..at the top of the Bay.
Jim Williams is live with links and discussion as well
@bobbistorm on Twitter
Ps.. will be updating in real time. Check back.
A look back ...enjoy, so true.
The heat in the tropics is on.