Tropical Depression 3 forms off the N tip of Yucatan.
Big weather mass coming together today.
Should be upgraded to Colin by later today or tomorrow.
Note I cut this so that you can see GA & SC also
Along with the risk for TS winds and rain in FL..
After it moves across FL GA and SC can get weather from it.
Can meaning stay tuned to your local weather.
For now we will focus on it's landfall and track.
I put this map up to show you perspective.
Tampa is in it yet extrapolate that across Florida.
Orlando, Ocala, Gainesville, Lake City, Jax, Daytona.
They all need to pay close attention to this storm.
For twisters, for heavy rain and possible flooding in low lying areas.
Note a lot of small towns in there, beautiful places.
Often prone to flooding.
Bayous in that part of the world.
Steinhatchee area is an example.
...just an example
NHC warnings below.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE GULF COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM INDIAN PASS TO ENGLEWOOD.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
* INDIAN PASS TO ENGLEWOOD
INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA THROUGH SOUTHERN
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
SOUTH CAROLINA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM."
The main point from the NHC discussion is below.
Based on buoy reports they upgraded to TD 3.
Hurricane Hunters going into the storm to see more hard data.
In addition the Gulfstream IV will be flying as well.
That data is from the atmosphere TD3 is moving into.
That data is invaluable in forecasting strength & track.
"NOAA buoy 42056 has reported 25
to 30 kt winds during the past several hours, and this is the basis
for the initial intensity of 30 kt. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane
intensity this afternoon."
Hunter aircraft should provide a better assessment of the cyclone's
If you don't have this link bookmarked you should!
Cone from NHC
No surprises with the cone.
Colin becomes a fast mover.
Perhaps when crowned with the name he runs with the crown?
For now TD3 is spinning in circles off the tip of the Yucatan.
Speed should pick up and track timing should verify.
A fast moving TS or TD is way better than a slow poke TS.
Note tho that weather is moving into Florida way ahead of the center.
So don't just concentrate on where the center is now down by Yucatan.
Note Miami is not in wind probs.
Myrtle Beach is but low chances.
Just showing you the confidence by the NHC in this track.
Miami will get weather so watch your local weather source.
My game plan here is to write more later today.
After we have better data from recon.
This is a short update to say what I have been saying.
TD3 should become Colin later today.
However the mass of convection you see is not where TD3 is...
Convection is being sheared to the right.
What we have been saying a lopsided storm headed to FL.
The center is due N of the tip of the Yucatan.
The convection is in the Yucatan Channel to the left.
To be a real contender for the name Colin ...
This needs to impress the NHC and tighten up.
So for now it's TD3
What's creating the shear?
The Texas Low as I call it.
I'll give TD3 credit for hanging in there.
It's a fighter and most likely will be Colin.
As my friend Rob points out...
Tornadoes can be a problem.
That's not a for sure but a pay attention to your local weather.
Tropical Storms like this often carry the additional problem of Twisters.
Again Tropical Storms can be messier over a larger area than a Cane.
For now it's weak and it's forecast to remain relatively weak.
A good wake up call for Florida as it's June 5th and this is the 3rd named storm.
This could pull even more to the left than expected.
Depends on how sharp that trof is . . .
Note impacts could be up and down the coast.
Savannah, Myrtle Beach.
All depends how sharp a turn to the right Colin makes..
Again the Gulfstream Jet will provide many clues.
Much like Irene in 1999 weather mass is to the left.
For now... stay tuned.
A look at just one of many places in the path of TD 3
@bobbistorm on Twitter
Ps I'll update as soon as we get more better data as we say Down South ;)
The beaches are so white your eyes hurt to look at them.
Florida has lions and tigers and bears.
More than just about Tampa Bay.
Big family attractions of all kinds there..
Zoos, citrus.. a lot of life goes on there..
For now... one particular harbor will be where TD 3 aka Colin makes landfall.
But much of the that area and far inland will get it's weather.