Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Saturday, June 18, 2016

Invest 94L Forms in the BOC Headed Towards Mexico

Officially Invest 94L

60% chances of development.

Suffice it to say it is looking way better Saturday Night.
What a difference a day makes.

Last good visible image of the day.
You can see signs of circulation.
IF this continues planes go in tomorrow.
Currently most models take this to TD status.
Will have to see how tomorrow goes and ...
...what the next model run shows
Ironically this moisture may make it into the Pacific.
Not in any way besides moisture.
Just funny.
BOC might be helping the EPAC number
Very below average this year... 
A sign that El Nino has hit the road Jack
And Atlantic Hurricane Season is back!

Nestled down by the Yucatan

Watching for some maintenance of color.

ft-animated.gif (720×480)

High to the North pushes it West towards Mexico.
Where exactly is the question.
Possibly Tampico by Tuesday.
Sounds good and is possible.

Needs to get some reds as strong as afternoon Tstorms over S FL
But you can see it coming together.

Again really hard to explain how these systems blow up in BOC.
Rob from talks on the lay of the land.
He's right there is something to the curvature of the land.
I'll add warmth of water.
Add in it moves into an area with lower shear.
Just enough to for this to gear up 
And get designation of some kind.
I never like to rule a name out.
Tropical Depression most likely.
We will know more tomorrow.
First morning visible.
And recon most likely going in.

So let's let it spin ... for now.

A picture to remind you what we are talking about.
Note the aqua ... sea green color where El Nino used to be?

rb-animated.gif (720×480)

I'll update after first morning visible tomorrow.
Let me explain we have means to see down into the storm.
But there's nothing like a good morning visible.
And next model runs.

But put water temps and low shear together.
And you get a rapidly developing low pressure systems.
Inches to go before the goal line.

Bonus thought is that something could develop off the Carolinas.
But note currently no real model is doing much with it.
Name or no name it's a big game changer for the locals.
NC asking people to stay close to shore...
...and not take pleasure crafts out on Father's Day.

Big wind maker.
High surf.
Nothing more to talk on right now.
Stay tuned... 

Besos BobbiStorm

Ps ... Keep all eyes on Mexico.
Invest 94 L 


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