Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Friday, June 17, 2016

BOC Still 20% Low Chances Low Down Close to the Coast. Maybe Do a QB Sneak? Time Will Tell... East Coast Low, Waves.. Where's Danielle?

20% chances.
To be fair the yellow circle is a bit further into the BOC.
Up off of Mexico at least.
Hey being over water is important for the formation of a tropical system!

So let's talk football a bit to better understand these BOC storms.

If you have ever spent any time watching TV you will understand.
If not.. you might still understand.

The QB sneak when close to the goal line.
Within 10 yards of less. 
Inches go go.

It's a classic play.

Old School:

New School:

Still being used...
Know why?
It works.

You give it all you got close to the goal line.
And if it works you make it across and score.

If 20% yellow gives it all it's got.
Relatively Low Shear
Warm Water
Forms fast and sneaks its way to landfall.
It may get designation, a name or just an Invest.
And make it across the beach near Tex Mex border 
Score: Landfall!!

Nuff said for now unless models change drastically.

This is that sacrificial named storm into Tex Mex early in the season.
Think of Danielle as a Mayan virgin being sacrificed....
... to protect their kingdom.
Sorry maybe not politically correct but in ways... good analogy.

Storm people are intense.
A shame. 
Waste of a good name.
Yet it ups the numbers so...
we be nuts sometimes.
I did a report on the Mayans when I was little.
Some things stay with you.
Well when you work with a cute boy at the library .... remember way better ;)
Anyway... crazy times they lived in.
Whew glad we don't have to worry on that tradition!!

Don't think Mexico had to worry much on this system.

But you got the idea.

Let's move on to the East Coast Low.... 

What no one is talking about is the East Coast Low.
NHC staying mum while murmuring statistics on BOC Low.
No one really cares that much on BOC Low except people in Tampico.

Online everyone wants to know what's with the coastal low.
Does it form in a tropical way?
Or is it just an ocean storm out at sea...
..only important for ships and maybe Bermuda.

A high pressure ridge is setting up to the North of what could be Danielle in the BOC and that ridge would stop Danielle or a Tropical Depression from moving North towards Texas and Louisiana... another ridge further north locked in over the NE could steer another Low with or without a name down towards the SE Coast or keep it looping over around in the Atlantic moving towards Bermuda, away from Bermuda.. back towards Carolina or maybe New England. A lot of maybe solutions none are reliable as yet as the system has not really formed into a named Low and that part of the world often gets coastal lows off of the Carolinas. Some get a name, some don't and all generate high surf and strong onshore winds. Wow, a trip to the Outer Banks for Father's Day would be a real treat to a storm minded Dad.

Yup the beat goes on in the tropics.

So we have a little low in the BOC over to the Left. In the Atlantic off the coast of Carolina we have a big system that is getting a lot more attention than the little low in NHC that actually has real official yellow circle. Looks like the bigger more attractive system is going to show the show... maybe.

See like with Real Estate it's all about location.
Also it's important to make your property look good.
To catch the eye of the NHC you have to have a lot to look at ;)
And forming over warm water may up the ante down the road.

But for now.................
We are just talking possibilities.
Let's be honest. 
The set up is in place.
NWS has Gale Warnings up.
Do we need a name?
Don't ask TWC that one.

Oddly while people wonder why the NHC doesn't SAY something.
The NWS is screaming to watch out for high surf and strong winds.

Now let's look at some images from Spaghetti Models.

Purple blobs off the SE Coast.
A Low from an old frontal boundary.

No real roll by BOC.
Tho it may be hidden by partially being over land.

latest72hrs.gif (947×405)
Keep watching Atlantic.

The current models show an intricate strange system off the E Coast.

Moves offshore, possibly moves back towards shore.
Things could get quirky.

Stay tuned.

Small chance something forms in Eastern GOM way out.
But will talk on that when more than one random model jumps onboard.

This is the flow...shows where things will go.
Check that Pacific system... dips way down wow.

Isn't the atmosphere like art. 
Again the Epac is trying hard to get going.
Will something form fast close in around Florida?

Remember when Carrie Underwood stole the show from....
 Bo What's His Name?

You never know this year.

Where will Danielle form?
When ???

SE Coast Home Grown?
Tropical Wave?

Stay tuned...

Not sure yet ..
..but one thing I do know.

I'm here for the Hurricane Party.
I'm not leaving.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

I'm back in my office.
Back watching loops and models.
Enjoying cooler temperatures than I saw on my recent trip to Florida.
So so so so hot.
When it's this hot in the SE... means we are way closer to the mean season.
Hurricane Season.
Prime Time not Pre-Season ...
Stay tuned


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