Hurricane Harbor: BOC Still 20% Low Chances Low Down Close to the Coast. Maybe Do a QB Sneak? Time Will Tell... East Coast Low, Waves.. Where's Danielle?

20% chances.

To be fair the yellow circle is a bit further into the BOC.

Up off of Mexico at least.

Hey being over water is important for the formation of a tropical system!

So let's talk football a bit to better understand these BOC storms.

If you have ever spent any time watching TV you will understand.

If not.. you might still understand.

The QB sneak when close to the goal line.

Within 10 yards of less.

Inches go go.

It's a classic play.

Old School:

New School:

Still being used...

Know why?

It works.

You give it all you got close to the goal line.

And if it works you make it across and score.

If 20% yellow gives it all it's got.
Relatively Low Shear
Warm Water
Forms fast and sneaks its way to landfall.

It may get designation, a name or just an Invest.

And make it across the beach near Tex Mex border

Score: Landfall!!

Nuff said for now unless models change drastically.

This is that sacrificial named storm into Tex Mex early in the season.

Think of Danielle as a Mayan virgin being sacrificed....
... to protect their kingdom.

Sorry maybe not politically correct but in ways... good analogy.

Storm people are intense.

A shame.

Waste of a good name.

Yet it ups the numbers so...

we be nuts sometimes.

I did a report on the Mayans when I was little.

Some things stay with you.

Well when you work with a cute boy at the library ....

...you remember way better ;)

Anyway... crazy times they lived in.

Whew glad we don't have to worry on that tradition!!

Don't think Mexico had to worry much on this system.

But you got the idea.

Let's move on to the East Coast Low....

What no one is talking about is the East Coast Low.

NHC staying mum while murmuring statistics on BOC Low.

No one really cares that much on BOC Low except people in Tampico.

Online everyone wants to know what's with the coastal low.

Does it form in a tropical way?

Or is it just an ocean storm out at sea...

..only important for ships and maybe Bermuda.

A high pressure ridge is setting up to the North of what could be Danielle in the BOC and that ridge would stop Danielle or a Tropical Depression from moving North towards Texas and Louisiana... another ridge further north locked in over the NE could steer another Low with or without a name down towards the SE Coast or keep it looping over around in the Atlantic moving towards Bermuda, away from Bermuda.. back towards Carolina or maybe New England. A lot of maybe solutions none are reliable as yet as the system has not really formed into a named Low and that part of the world often gets coastal lows off of the Carolinas. Some get a name, some don't and all generate high surf and strong onshore winds. Wow, a trip to the Outer Banks for Father's Day would be a real treat to a storm minded Dad.

Yup the beat goes on in the tropics.

So we have a little low in the BOC over to the Left. In the Atlantic off the coast of Carolina we have a big system that is getting a lot more attention than the little low in NHC that actually has real official yellow circle. Looks like the bigger more attractive system is going to show the show... maybe.